A global recession is on the horizon - please read OP for mod warning

patience, this oil situation is far from over, humpty dumpty across the pond will make sure of that, he thrives in chaos, so be prepared!

So if this war/blockade continues and prices of everything goes through the roof and it kicks off a recession, does that mean prices of houses would drop as well or do they get more expensive along with everything else?

Aer lingus along with luftansa and others now actively cutting flights.

Everyone and every asset class is in for a hosing.

Nice weather for the next week though, finally get those veg beds finished.

You can't finance away real material shortages.

8 decades of US led economic orthodoxy is falling apart.

That’s very funny 5 years into “eastern” Chinese house price bubble crash which makes the Celtic tiger bubble look like peanuts in its scale

with debt growing exponentially

Property prices should fall if unemployment rises, people in employment suffer pay cuts and credit becomes harder to obtain. However that doesn't mean that sellers will cooperate. During the post tiger crash a lot of sellers had to do so. This time around maybe not outside of house sales following death of the owner.

I was at a mortgage talk with BOI in my job and they did mention likely mortgage rates will go up this year. Not cut!

I'm reluctant to say what way anything will go as we're in the throws of the post WWII economic consensus falling apart.

While we're very exposed to the US what biomed/pharma we do export there isn't going decline in demand, despite their attempts to home shore production. Those industries need global markets, and their Irish operations are more vital now after Trump raised tariff frictions.

I have a relation high up in one of the biomeds whose been asked to possibly go to the US for a few years to help with home shoring, but he is so specialist that there's no shortage of opportunity in Europe and Asia so it's a firm no.

Half of US phd graduates were educated in other countries, and many are now leaving because of hostile policies.

A lot of the big US multinationals have become reliant on the publicly funded education systems, like ours, so how can the US debt laden education system even compete?

Also this morning I've read that the UAE are asking for emergency USD funding, or otherwise they will have to have to sell their oil in Yuan. So while we may suffer fuel supply shocks, I think its the USD zone that will suffer the financial displacement.

and where would all these immigrants be moving to?

the complexities of our housing market tend to be overly simplified down to supply and demand, this is classic neoclassical thinking, when in fact our reality is far more complex than this over simplification.

im not convinced house prices will fall, even if there is a recession, theres now enough stimulation in maintaining hyper inflated prices, including institutional and state buying, and then of course theres those record deposits, of which many billions are currently being saved for future purchasing, add all that up, and its very unlikely property pries will be taking a dip anytime soon, no matter what happens, time will tell though

China's economy slowing down... which probably means more imbalance in the global economy with more exports. The world can not survive this, especially Europe, tariffs needed before it's too late.

The Iran War Is Starting to Expose Cracks in China’s Economy

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/04/27/business/china-economy-iran-war.html

Car sales fell in March and plunged further in April. Restaurants and hotels are seeing fewer customers as households turn cautious. In southern China, thousands of toy factory workers protested last week after their employer collapsed under rising plastic costs and ongoing tariffs in the United States.

errr emm, tariffs are actually partly causing the slow down, as this is what they do!

To preserve what is left of Europe's industrial base.

I suppose if the thread goes on long enough the doomsayers will eventually be right. If there is a recession, Europe will be better equipped to ride it out than others

Ermm go look at the trade deficit with China, it's a huge issue that Europe is going to have to face up to, recession or not.