After the FF Presidential election debacle, how long before Micheal Martin resigns or is pushed?

Who would get elected if not FFG?

I agree there is plenty of time to pass before the next election but even if the election was tomorrow, I'd say the core FFG vote would still be large enough to see them back into the Dail.

A lot of voters like the fact that Jim takes a tougher approach to illegal blockades, even if they might also sympathise with the protestors cause.

I dont think it will do him any harm in the long run at all.

Not 50%, but as you say, they'd get enough seats to form a govt through coalition again.

Interestingly, Indo poll less than 2 weeks ago had MM as joint most popular party leader in country.

Christ… he has absolutely zero going for him

Exactly.

Aontu + PBP will struggle to have 5 let alone 10. That Mayo seat was a one time fluke.

Neither is reliable enough to go in to Government

That's my point.

There still isn't a realistic alternative to an FFG govt, meaning FFG would still get voted back into the Dail tomorrow if there was an election.

There is actually, an ff/sf (plus add-ons if necessary) government. Martin will always choose fg over sf to form a government if the former is any way feasible but we don’t know that will be the position of a new ff leader (which it is looking like we might have sooner than expected)

I do agree with you there & made the same point to another poster.

However, that all depends on if there is a change of leadership and who that leader is.

At the moment, the Leader is MM and the SF/FF coalition is off the table.

The irony is “the left” has cannibalised itself . SF/PBP did a political hatchet job on Labour of which it might never recover “water charges” “the establishment” etc.

Leading to the Soc Dems and a gaggle of independents. “The left” is all over the shop. There is no unifying leader, or even charismatic figures on that side of the house who can lead at all in my opinion. The Soc Dems are only finding their feet but it looks like they will end up swallowing Labour up eventually- but how long will that take?

SF are really a diluted “NI SF” trying to change the symbolic rough Republican edges to suit the ROI electorate.
PBP are student union types who never grew up. And Aontu are just SF but with a more traditional family values ethos.

The Greens idealistic middle class dreamers from Urban Ireland. They might be stronger in 15-20 years as Ireland’s demographic changes. But you couldn’t take them seriously. They definitely wouldn’t mix well with SF like oil and water.

I always get the impression when the Greens are put in government they are just there for the numbers (if they have any) then the larger parties can blame them for environmental taxes etc. The Greens end up losing massively the next election. But they accept that.

You would have some job to form from that uncoordinated mix of parties.

FF and FG have to do very little to beat what they are up against other than do “OK”. That is the reality when you strip away all the noise. FF and FG teaming up makes it even more difficult for an alternative government to get in. And they know it.

As for Martin himself in DE he is consistently a better performer in debates than the opposition (in my view). No ranting, no raving, no playing to the gallery. A fluent Irish speaker as well, calm in manner. Who else would be as good from the FF ranks ?

O’Callaghan? That’s probably it.

Those who think that Martin’s days are numbered are just wishful thinkers. I think he will actually go when he chooses, at this stage. His position is that strong.

He rebuilt his party. Even the Presidential farce couldn’t bring him down. Martin has probably recovered well with his handling of the fuel protests/blockades. He is good at playing statesman. The Fuel protests/blockades have ended up strengthening his personal position as leader rather than weakening it. I would say.

And there are no real alternatives (yet) within FF and an opposition who is all over the place with no clear direction. Nor clue how to form a government.

Martin must feel very comfortable now.

listening to MEP Cynthia Ni Mhurchu on Radio1 there, she more or less said that Micheal is there for too long and needs to reflect and listen.. She actually sounds like a possible leader 😐️ She even referred to Jim Gavin as "the presidential crisis"

Leadership candidates must be TDs. Checked the party rules there.

I now feel dirty.

With a few weeks to go before the 2016 General Election with FF floundering in the polls they suddenly decided they were against the very water charges they agreed to introduce as part of the bailout.

And the public duly took them up on the offer.

It’s a well known fact in political circles that more people move house in advance of elections than at any other time , particularly local elections. !!!

People get registered where they have farms as opposed to where they reside. In one case a family voted where the only building on the farm in which they could possibly live was a slatted house !

Looking at PP odds for next FF leader, JOC has drifted to 8/11, Chambers and Darragh O'Brien close to joint second and Calleary way out at 13s. Looks like the punters are convinced it has to be a Dub (and a bloke) anyway…