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Convection /Thunderstorm discussion Spring /Summer 2026
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06-04-2026 11:35AM#1
From Met Eireann
………………………………………………………………………………………………..Tomorrow
Tuesday will start off mostly dry with sunny spells in the east. It will be cloudier further west with showery rain in western coastal counties, heavy and possibly thundery at times. It will spread slowly eastwards through the late afternoon and evening, becoming lighter in the evening. Mild with highest temperatures of 13 to 17 degrees and moderate southeast winds, easing mostly light later.
A change in the weather set up giving the more Spring / Summer type convection parameters, namely a warm plume of moisture rich airmass moving up from the South. Day time temperatures up to around 16 or 17C ( maybe 18C in the E ? ) with a high Dew point up around 12 or 13C. Have a weak cold front approaching from the W slowly making its way inland. Some LLS and DLS available, converging winds from the Cold Front might be a bit too late in the day but will see. Currently models showing potential of a few hundred J/kg . Maybe isolated in nature but sometimes these kind of storms can last a bit if they get fired up, parameters just more in the positive side of potential . Anyway a chance to get into the spring / summer type set ups and try and plot the course of the instability leading to convective rainfall and thunderstorm potential. Will see if any update on tonight's charts.
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ECM suggesting thunderstorms possible in the early hours coming up from the south, isolated in nature. showing an area in Connaught possible with strong low and deep layer shear,, tongue of high Theta E readings and good lapse rates. Will see if anything comes of it.
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Best chance of isolated thunderstorms tomorrow would appear to be the top half of the country and probably better towards the top third where the best lapse rates are. Big convective showers tomorrow and blustery in those showers with hail very possible under those cold uppers. AROME showing well the possibility of blustery local conditions ahead or under some of those showers.
Not a huge amount of CAPE but we will see if we get a scattering of thunderstorm's.
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Instability increasing from the West after the frontal passages later on tonight, wintry showers along Atlantic coastal counties , some of hail and risk of thunderstorm's, possibly mostly over the sea but a chance of some straying onshore. Tomorrow enough CAPE and upper instability from deep layer shear and cold pool aloft as occluded fronts/ troughs cross the country producing big convective showers, hail possible and isolated thunderstorms just about anywhere I would think.
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Tomorrow under a negatively tilted longwave trough and very cold upper air aloft with the passage of a shortwave trough which could produce thunderstorms more overland during tomorrow afternoon during peak diurnal heating . Again could happen about anywhere. Possibly more activity than today. Less in the way of surface wind tomorrow , has an amount of LLS and DLS with decent lapse rates which could aid the development of a few more hefty longer lived storms perhaps. ECM showing CAPE up around 500 J/kg so decent enough.
Sferics which got detected since midnight.
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That's exactly what is happening at the moment though. There's a band/area of showers moving from south to north at the moment, as can be seen below.
There are also heavy showers/areas of rain in Ulster
Note that Shannon radar is down so the showers in the midlands and towards the west may be more numerous and heavier than the radar might suggest. The most recent visible satellite imagery suggests that the light enough shower showing up on radar to the north east of Ennis may be heavier and larger than the radar suggests.
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Apart from all the big showers and hail on Tuesday only a few sferics showed up in Cork, today I don't think any recorded.
The next decent chance of thunderstorms and possibly widespread at that if they get fired up is on Weds post frontal airmass as the upper trough goes through its negative phase and the passage of lower shortwave troughs and occluded fronts. Again a large upper pool of cold air aloft and decent amounts of LLS and some DLS set to give decent instability/ Lapse Rates. current indications are for CAPE getting up from 500 to 700 J/Kg in places , the highest reading I have seen since some of the big storms last summer perhaps . Has the look of being active. Will see how the charts pan out tomorrow.
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Some thunderstorms possible Wendsday afternoon? @Meteorite58
Some decent Cape values especially for the time of year.
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Yeah looks like a decent chance all right Ros4Sam24, highest CAPE readings in some time, widespread at that and possibly strongest in the Northern half of the country like the AROME charts show above.
Nice looking cloud formation simulation, would be some showers from that and hail too. One to watch.
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Parameters strong for widespread heavy convective rainfall with hail and thunderstorms looking likely tomorrow from mid to late morning through the afternoon and possibly into late afternoon early evening in Northern counties.
Local flooding or spot flooding possible especially if under a some of those very heavy showers forecast for tomorrow after the front passes through which in itself should drop a fair bit of water.
Shear available lower down and in the upper levels under the cold pool aloft. Passage of troughs and occluded front under the upper negative tilted trough all aiding instability, models in fair agreement of CAPE between 600 -700 J/kg available in places.
Windy too and blustery in some of those big convective showers.
Think could get thunderstorms about anywhere but probably the most active from a line say from Limerick up heading towards Northern counties. Can see warnings for rainfall accumulations /thunderstorms coming into effect.
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SYNOPSIS and DISCUSSION
Ridging and extensive anticyclones dominate the weather over most of Europe. One exception is the quasi-stationary cut-off over/just W of Sicily and a progressive upper trough over NW Europe, which swings from Ireland N towards Scotland.
Over NW Europe, a moist postfrontal airmass offers up to 500 J/kg MUCAPE as temporal diabatic heating kicks in from the SW. Strongest storms may pose some graupel and gust risk, although the combination of a moist airmass with low LCLs and improving 3CAPE could also support a funnel/short-lived tornado event mainly over E/N Ireland and W/SE UK. The risk abates after sunset and the magnitude of the severe risk does not justify a level issuance.
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