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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Where to begin

    • One only needs a few hundred tons available from a wide range of stable and democratic countries compared to millions of tons of steel, aluminium, copper, plastics and rare earths almost all now coming from China as there is no European industry left as such
    • No once you have solar and wind you are not independent (just take a visit to eirgird dashboard right now and see what out 9GW of renewables are doing as I type this) you have now become dependent on China for replacements every two decades (less for batteries) and mideast for gas to backup renewables
    • I do hope more people get home solar like I done six years ago, only for them to learn first hand what 10% capacity factor entails in reality
    • Those people protesting can’t just switch to electric trucks and tractors, those literally don’t exist and our electricity is already the most expensive in world precisely due to the hole renewables have gotten us into


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Not expecting HGV and agri machinery to switch to battery, but if we hurried up replacing the diesel cars, then the diesel we have would last longer for those who truly have no alternative at times like this.

    I've had solar for 15 years, I'm well aware of winter :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    That’s not how economics works

    if only HGV and tractors and other heavy machinery are left using hydrocarbons let’s say with 90% drop in demand you now have situations where it’s no longer profitable to run the only refinery on this island for example, increasing foreign dependence



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    If Irving Oil no longer wanted to operate it, they could sell it. And if nobody wanted to buy it, the state could purchase it and continue to operate it if it was in the national interest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Renewables make a country dependent on gas, they do not make a country energy independent.

    Screenshot_20260208-195657_Firefox.jpg


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  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,436 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatInABox


    When was this Cnocbui? I checked there and it's currently on 52% renewables for the last month.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 50 ✭✭on the bog


    That’s not how the real world operates

    The state can’t do that as it would fall foul of EU anti state subsidy rules

    Tangentially: we used to have cheap electricity when state ran it all, just wasn’t very clean as nuclear wasn’t chosen



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    https://www.smartgriddashboard.com/all/snsp/?duration=week&datefrom=05-Apr-2026&dateto=11-Apr-2026

    With double our existing SNSP sources (50% would be 100%) and a grid that could take 95% SNSP. And a reactors worth of batteries there would be no role for nuclear and considerably less for gas / biogas etc.

    Renewables are predictably intermittent because weather forecasts and no sudden changes because it takes time for a weather front to move across the country.

    With Nuclear Automatic SCRAMs are completely unpredictable and at the newest US power plant they averaged 20 days duration.

    Even predictable outages like EPR refuelling can last 50 days, and a common deceit from EDF is to keep the "planned outage" label when a reactor doesn't come back on line on time. IMHO from the moment it was supposed to be back on line it becomes an unplanned outage.

    Nuclear can't operate without peaking plant.

    Nuclear's requirement for dispatchable long term backup, and spinning reserve are much greater than for renewables.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    How do you provide CO2 free spinning reserve ?

    If a reactor SCRAMs output will drop to ~9% (residual decay) very quickly and then over a few hours to ~1% as the longer lived isotopes decay.

    If you haven't restarted at that stage you're probably in the Iodine Pit and now not only will you need to import power for cooling but you may not be able to restart for a few days (xenon decay).

    So how do you provide days of CO2 free replacement generation ? And possibly weeks if the outage is more serious.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    Saw this and thought of UK, France and Japan which had massive downtimes from "unexpected" maintenance.

    In the case of Japan the % of reactors that can't be restarted is shocking.

    You can't do nuclear on the cheap and you can't reduce downtime. Any attempt will come back and bite you hard.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    8th of February. It's not uncommen, I have lot's more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Only your fellow climate deniers fall for cherry picked moments like this. Thankfully there are people with knowledge and expertise actually running out energy infrastructure. The country is on around 45% renewable YTD, a number that will continue to grow as more wind, solar and batteries are deployed nationally. Enjoy the denial.



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,436 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatInABox


    So, what is the difference between a Dunkelflaute, and a nuclear reactor going offline? In terms of the Irish grid anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Dunkenflautes are much less common. There's a reason the anti renewable people all refer to 2010 as their example.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    "A reactors worth of batteries"

    The UAE are constructing a solar + battery project to provde 1 GW for 3.5 hours. Assuming it's on budget, it will be 3 times the cost of the UAEs nuclear reactors, and that's in a country near the equator with a very high solar capacity factor.

    Predictably intermittent means nothing, it doesn' free you from the reality of your LNG transiting the Straits of Hormuz or the US having a huge cold weather event interupting exports of LNG, such as happened recenty.

    If you need 5 reactors, you build 6. They are cheaper than either OSW or solar. The extra reactor can be your backup spinning reserve. In your system, you can either export that power, a good little earner for France, or more likely, use that power to generate hydrogen to decarbonise transport that can't be electrified. These are legitimate uses of power that are not critical, so in the case of one of your beloved SCRAMs - a once every 2 years event for a reactor - you just stop making hydrogen and remove that load from the grid.

    France has such nuclear over capacity, with their total capacity exceeding demand. If they stop exporting their zero CO2 power to make hydrogen, which it's occurred to me they likely will before 2050, the rest of the EU fudging their numbers via imports are stuffed.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    When you look at the SNSP it doesn't look so bad.

    If we had twice the amount of SNSP that we do now we could probably get through on one reactor's worth of batteries.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Is that why we have the most expensive electricity in the world and still produce 6-7x the co2 of France



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    The extra reactor cannot be spinning reserve. It can't ramp up in time.

    It could only be used as backup and then only if you could guarantee availability of 5 out of 6 reactors.

    France they built 56 reactors and 26 went offline.

    Japan had 54 reactors and they all went off line.

    I've posted many many times where UK and Germany had more than half of their reactors offline, in Winter.

    Besides right now in the UK one reactor is offline (if not back on Tuesday then IMHO it's an unplanned outage)

    However, only 5 out of the other 9 are at Nominal full load and two of those will go offline next Month.

    Nominal full load

    Statutory outage

    Nominal full load Date of next statutory outage May 2026

    Nominal full load Date of next statutory outage May 2026

    Raising load following refuelling and graphite inspection outage

    Nominal full load

    Reduced load due to gas circulator issue

    Nominal full load

    Raising load following forced outage



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Probably at least a 20:1 difference in frequency. The US SCRAM frequency per reactor averages once every 2 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Speaking of denial. The current topic is renewables freeing a country from fossil fuels. 45% renewables means 55% fossil fuel use, which is fossil fuel dependency, something France is free of in terms of it's nuclear powered grid



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    He knows it is not true. He just doesn't care

    He was contributing to this other thread back then. Remember that you are debating with people who need to win an argument, not seeking to engage earnestly.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Do we really have the most expensive wholesale electricity in the world ?

    https://www.utilityfair.ie/business-energy-insights/wholesale-electricity-prices-in-ireland have tables - Data Sources: SEMOpx 

    image.png

    Oh look we're reducing CO2 emissions now. Nuclear won't show up for at least 20 years and it will be slow to add additional reactors so it won't do much.

    Interesting to see how there's higher emissions mid year but solar should reduce that or looking at it the other way round that's what will fund solar.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Sigh, we've been over the dunkenflaute many time over the years toppy. Maybe you've already seen the discussions if you had a previous reg. If not, then the anti renewable grouping will use their own interpretation of a dunkenflaute to make them appear more frequent. They are not. And dunkenflautes in themselves are not what is important in this historical record. It is the percentaage of renewables that were being generated on a day that is much more important than a label and something that can be analysed and used in future plans. Instead of OMG, dunkenflaute, we're doomed.

    Below are graphs for the percentage of renewables in the electricity mix on each day since the start of the year. I think the lowest day was 10%. We had a couple of 4-day runs averaging around 25%. It would have been great if Ireland had managed to get on the nuclear bus back in the 1970s but we didn't and that bus is gone. An NPP will not get us a single percent closer to our 2030 or 2050 targets because it won't be operational in time. But renewables can. A lot closer. Of course there will be times when renewables can't meet 95%/100% of demand, but for those decreasing amount of times, it's better to use gas than to use gas all the time for the 20/30 years it will take to get an NPP operational in this country. It's a very obvious case of not letting perfection be the enemy of good.

    image.png image.png image.png image.png image.png

    https://bsky.app/profile/greencollective.io



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    FFS! The 'spare' reactor would be operating at capacity continuously, it wouldn't need to be spun up, hydrogen production or export load on the grid equivalent to it's capacity would be shed.

    Japan and France's reactors did not go offline due to unreliability, they were turned off deliberately. In Japan's case, without any underlying logic, just fear. You are not actually helping your anti nuclear nonsense by repeatedly confabulating political decisions with technical realities.

    Going offline is not remotely the same thing as being taken offline deliberately as Germany stupidly did.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    People and companies don’t pay wholesale prices

    And zero

    That’s the number of days in any year ever Ireland released less CO2 than nuclear France



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,505 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    If you want to keep the lights on you can't ignore politics.

    Especially here where one of the main parties is "Ourselves Alone" and isn't all that keen on relying on foreign imports.

    Spain under a dictator ordered nuclear. But didn't build the Basque one. And democratic Spain hadn't added more.

    Italy, Germany and Taiwan dumped nuclear because politics.

    In the UK Maggie abandoned nuclear when North Sea gas meant she could close coal power stations and hence coal mines quicker.

    In the US the political decisions to allow fracking killed off many nuclear power plants.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,811 ✭✭✭Busman Paddy Lasty


    I have many screenshots of an interactive map of Finland exporting 1 GW after OL3 going online. Could have easily said OMG BilLiOnS wAsTeD oN nUcUlAr AnD dEy GiVe aWaY tO eStOniA 4 nUtt1N



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 442 ✭✭tppytoppy


    Sigh. Mendacity abounds.

    Don't look at smartgriddashboard between 10th and 17th October or the 2, 3 and 4 day dunkelflauten since then.

    So much Gas needed to be burnt over winter to literally keep the lights on.



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