Beef price tracker 2

The lad last Autumn was no idiot in the main. Beef was trading at c7.50 so why shouldn't it rise. We had a European shortage of beef with a booming live export trade in the previous 12 months. The last time this happened was 1981 and good prices continued for 2 to 3 years after because of slow restocking rate. There was no reason for it not to continue. No reasonable finisher was expecting 10e or even 9e a kg this spring but 8 was very attainable.

Why did it not atain 8e. The Irish processors have almost total domination of UK supermarket shelf space. There is three shelves in beef there, the brits, the Irish and now they have the rest of the world which is south America, NZ and Australia. The Irish processor decided to have a slice of the action and import beef from the aforementioned, chop it up, put their own lables on it and flog it to the brits. UK is in a bit of bother re the economy now so mince is mince in some people's language. If the Irish processor can buy that at c4e a kg they can do two things. One the can make more profit off it than slaughter Irish cattle and secondly use it as a control mechanism to pull Irish and British beef which in turn downs the European beef price too. I forgot to mention it adds to backing up Irish cattle in their plants which in itself a control measure.

Thats the story of where we find ourselves in. Why should they hit 7e again when there's third country beef available and ready.

Predicting the beef price is a difficult task at the best of times, Predicting the price now in these changed circumstances is virtually impossible. Kill numbers per week, Bord Bia figures and AIMS means absolutely nothing going forward.

I went for lunch today as I do regularly with work and the chef recommended beef. I said is that irish beef and he said 'I think it is'. I said in that case I'll have the fish.

The good news KK is we are over the worst. The rise in diesel prices will put a halt to the gallop of the feedlots. For the last 12 mo ths they could feed for 2.5/ day. Trying to organise a ration today for cattle to be rehoused. A 13.5% nut hi-maize sub 350/ ton and no gaurantee on price beyond the weekend.

Maize 350/ ton, Palm Kernal 240/ ton, ex port. Next ship load will probably be dearer and they will not know the price until the ship has refueled.

It will he harder for these lads to compete with us atound the ring. There costs this summer will be at least a euro a day more expensive than last year. Trucking cattle around the country will cost them money as well.

We might see 7.5/ kg this year for a while anyway for HE, AA and good quality Continentals.

Remember the wheel always turns.

Do you farm for what happens one year in ten ir nine years out of ten. This is the first year I have failed to graze out silage paddocks. Ground conditions are worse now than 4-5 weeks ago around here. Another deludge coming Friday.

I would probably be worse off if I had left them inside, I would be out of silage now. You farm what is in front of your. We have got at least one really wet day every week for the last month, along with a couple wetish days as well.

If what he told me is right then rations will substantially increase o er the next few weeks as more expensive product comes out of the port. Maybe he was blowing wind up my hole but he is one of two lads I mainly deal with and he usually gives ot straight.

On feedlots, last summer provate feedlots could afford to feed at cost of 2.5 or less per day. Barley was 220/ ton, a high beef price. They could compete with grass fed cattle bei g fed 2-4 kgs on grass, especially for the more efficient continental cattle. If straights are increaseing in price as he said its a different ball game.

Not only that a strong grain price in the autumn will discoursge a lot of winter finishers after last winter

Very few Mills if any have native cereal at this time of the year. The tillage man is bandjacked due to poor prices and cheap imports. Southern milling supply most of the mills in this area and they only import cereals. You would see there lorries regularly from December onwards.

I saw 4 ton of meal delivered in ton bags to a piggery this evening from a distance mill and now I know why.

If its a nut there will be 3-4 main ingredients, probably maize, soyabean, barley beetpulp. Barley may or may not be native.

You can probably switch barley and maize. The products are dependent on when the ships are in port. The warehouses in the port will hold some quanties, just like there own stores. A mill coild be picking up a different product every day.

Roches supposed to be stopping supply as well.

They ca not get supply from Foynes either AFAIK. Were you at the cousins

I had words with a couple of them yesterday. Neither of them owned the veheciles involved. Personally I think people need to start shopping them and questioning them

There is a lot of sh!t goes on with mixes. Take maize a miller could tell you the maize was 50% of your ration ( or barley for that matter) but the qualty could be shite. As it is the best maize we get in this country is probably 3rd grade ( i think the yellow meal in Kerry co-op is that) but others will be selling you a brown maize that might be 4th or 5th and if its in a nut you cannot tell the difference

The pig, chicken and egg producers all specify the quality of the product