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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 11,253 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Now all you got to do is get people willing to live beside it……..

    We have our iodine tablets in the bathroom, a bunker in the cellar stock for four adults for a week, It's inspected by the authorities once a year, we have to practice the drill once a quarter and at least once a year we get to spend 24 hours in lock down… just in case. That is my reality of living within 5Km of one here in Switzerland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,644 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    A small price to pay for the privilege of being allowed to live so close to critical infrastructure.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    What's the water, ventilation and toilet set up in the cellar? For the 4 adults for a week.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    I doubt the Swiss would require that for proximity to any current reactor designs, where the safety margins are beyond what is required.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Would you please stop with the nonsense. It`s tedious and takes up time where I have much better for doing with it.

    There are 24 hours in a day. 72GW divided by 24 is 3GW. not 6GW. If the average demand was 6GW your €10.5 Bn. batteries would be flat after 12 hours.

    In winter for those long extended periods when wind is doing little to nothing where solar eventually wakes up and sleep walks around with a capacity factor of 5% or less for a few hours before going back to sleep, it is adding little to nothing either.

    First day of that extended period to provide an average of 3GW per hour over that day would require a capital investment of €10.5Bn to store 72GW. 72GW divided by 24 hours is an average of 3GW per hour.

    End of the first 24 hours of that extended period your €10.5Bn batteries are drained, and nothing much of anything from wind or solar to recharge them. So day 2 would require another set of €10.5Bn batteries. Day 3 the same. Day 4 etc….

    For just 3 days the capital cost of batteries to provide an average demand of 3GW would be €31.5Bn. For and average demand of 6GW, a capital cost of €63Bn.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Goes to show just how bad things have become under a plan that was his brainchild where he and his party spent 5 years in power doing everything they could to block even discussion on nuclear.

    He may have now started to realise the realities, but he is still away with the fairies on batteries as backup for renewables.



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,436 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatInABox


    You're right, I had read that a few days before, and misremembered the party involved. Apologies.

    Still though, between the political horse trading at the first vote (moderates wanted a straight vote on nuclear, other government parties changed it to a vote on looking into all possible sources of energy), the ruling out of standard nuclear, and an election that returned two anti-nuclear parties in first and second, I wouldn't go around thinking that Denmark will be sinking nuclear contracts soon.

    As it happens, I don't have an ideological objection to nuclear, I just think the costs and barriers to getting it done in a timely and relevant manner are too high.

    In Irish nuclear news, here's an article on ministers talking about removing our ban:

    It's paywalled, so I haven't read it, but it's interesting that Eamon Ryan and now this comes out on the same day.

    There's definitely been progress on the image of nuclear, but it's very much in danger of missing the boat. All well and good that people and countries are talking about it more, but when push comes to shove, very few are actually putting pen to paper.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    No problem. It can easily happen.

    Denmark has admitted that the will not be able to run their grid on renewables alone. Now with them virtually certain of not being able to rely on Norwegian hydro, or indeed Swedish nuclear to fill that gap, they have very few options other than nuclear. Either imported generation or generating their own.

    Problem here is that the current plan we are following, as well as being an abject failure in reducing our level of emissions to what is require by 2030, there is no way on heaven or earth we can finance it without bankrupting the state and still have consumers paying multiples of what we are already paying where we are amongst the highest charges in Europe. Even if by some miracle we actually did find a forest of money trees to pay for it, it still would be miles off providing even Eirgrid`s conservative projections of our 2050 demand needs that this plan was supposed to address.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    Maybe We/Denmark should build a gigantic bowl, let it fill with rainwater, and then generate Hydro off its sides as well?

    Probably easier to sell to locals than Nuclear.

    I'm in a similar boat to CatInABox, no opposition to nuclear but I can't see it being built here in time to actually make any difference between the likely 10+ years it would be in planning, the 10+ years it would be in Judicial Review and the 20+ years to actually build the things...

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 99,511 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    During daylight hours you can charge batteries if you have solar. So you'd only need them at night , hence for half the year you wouldn't even need 12 hours. 6GW in addition to wind and other generators should meet the summer night valley easily.

    Remember you suggested how much battery storage you can get for €10Bn. BTW as the UK and US and France and Finland show you can't get actually reactor for that sort of money and now it's more like twice that. Remind us again how battery prices have decreased since the UK tried to restart nuclear back in 2008 ?

    For longer periods you would have to use something else. Energy to fuel is cheaper than nuclear simply because you'd need less of it. If less you are using it less than one third of the time , wind is cheaper. I've posted how often the EPR's and US Gen III reactors have been offline. Longer outages than wind so you'd need to show how nuclear could be backed up.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Try actually reading posts and at least making an attempt to understand them before replying.

    And what is so difficult to understand that if your average hourly usage is 3GW then in a 24 hour day you will use 72GW. It`s not rocket science. It`s basic simple mathematics 3 x24 = 72. If you cannot understand that then look up the definition of average.

    I didn`t suggest anything about how much battery storage you would get for €10Bn. I told you you would get €10.5 Bn worth that supplying an average of 3 GW per hour would be flat after 24 hours. I also told you that when it comes to those long extended periods in winter when we have little to no wind, and solar, when it is awake, with its 5% capacity factor would be providing even less. So for day two if you do not have another set of €10.5 Bn batteries you are sitting in the dark. Ditto for day 3, day 4 or for however many days that extended period lasts.

    Energy to fuel, which I presume is burning hydrogen to fill the gap in demand when renewables are unable too seeing as what this plan you favor is, is not cheaper than nuclear. The strike price of hydrogen alone is twice that of the most expensive nuclear you could find, and the cost to generate the electricity in the first place to provide it would double the strike price on its own.

    Batteries and hydrogen are airy fairy green fantasies that they somehow got the idea could be paid for with monopoly money.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,953 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I'll happily live beside one.

    The Swiss being ridiculously over the top about something doesn't change that (bar the fact I would leave during any stupid lockdown test).



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,436 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatInABox


    Read this article, and it's pretty much the debate that's been going on world wide but in an Irish context.

    Darragh O'Brien, in charge of our planning, describes himself as agnostic on nuclear, but sums up the situation with this quote:

    "Even the modular reactors, you're not looking at a two or three year build on that. It is longer. Now if you look at the difficulty we’ve had even with wind farms, I wonder what the public appetite really would be with regard to nuclear?”

    Honestly, the debate comes across as close as possible to my views 😂

    It's sensible to have the debate on it, and there's no real harm in looking at removing the ban, but SMRs (which seems to be all they they are considering) are not yet proven commercially, and until that happens, I don't think that anything will change in Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Its been obvious for a long time that Irelands planning legislation is not fit for purpose. It's so typical for an Irish person to use legislative barriers and public service inadequacies as excuses as to why things cant be done. Any other country would change the legislation to get a quicker outcome that is societally necessary, and remove barriers.

    https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-06-26/queensland-passes-laws-brisbane-2032-olympics-games/105463790

    That's what you do when something needs doing. Does Ukraine let planning legislation get in he way of doing what's necessary?

    In 2016, South Australia suffered a large and economically costly power blackout because of an over reliance on renewables. They identified a fix and constructed the worlds largest grid battery within one year of the incident.

    Ireland should grow up instead of constantly making excuses about everything that enables it's 'can't do' culture.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,965 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I just took a look at the Dublin Array and I would also be very skeptical that it won`t become another Sceirde Rocks.

    It was awarded a strike price of €86.05 per MWh in 2023 with an estimated cost of €1.5 BN. Early 2025 that estimate had increased to over €2 Bn. An increase of ~40% in two years.

    The earliest date for it supplying anything is now 2030 where it would be supplying at it`s 2023 strike price of €86.05 per MWh where the strike price has already risen to €98.72 by 2025.

    Whatever margin of profit they were estimating to have in 2023, it is going to be a lot less in 2030. If at all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,644 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    How dare you Charlie, we are on a path. You aren't supposed to put costs beside that path!

    What you really needed was a really long post, full of charts that say nothing. That's the only way you'll prove your point.

    There won't be a single additional offshore wind turbine by 2030. Not 1. Despite all the promises since 2020. That's a lost decade that we could have been using to plan a nuclear plant. It's irresponsible and downright treasonous to have left us in this position.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    And if you're frustrated by successive Irish governments failure to progress offshore wind, imagine how frustrated those of us who support renewable are. In that time, the UK have developed 2.9GW Hornsea 3 and cables came ashore last month.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    If you're frustrated by the sh!tshow the Irish government has made of offshore wind, wait till you see them with nuclear... every parish pump in the country will be pumped dry supporting it in principle and opposing it in practice

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Other countries have managed to overcome opposition. This constant appeal to Irish exceptionalism - the embarrasing kind - is tiresome.

    Offer free lecy to the locals and communities will be demanding you build it in their back yard. In some places, the availabilty of stable high paying skilled work, would be enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    Can you explain why the approach you suggest isn't working for renewable projects that other countries seem to be building just fine?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    WTF are you on about? There are 300 wind farms in Ireland. Locals don't get offered discounts on their lecy, nor do they get jobs so the approach hasn't been implimented or tried anywhere. All locals get are noisy eyesores. If opposition is growing it might be because there are 300 wind farms.

    NP is the exact opposite of wind and solar in terms of visual and acoustic amenety and the amount of land it takes up.

    Why don't you just drop this, 'I'm not opposed to nuclear power' I just like playing devils advocate at every opportunity, duplicity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,532 ✭✭✭riddlinrussell


    Why would the same government that isn't offering these incentives for residents near wind/solar farms suddenly offer them for NPPs is my question.

    Also I know in a world where everyone needs to bee either 100% for or against something this might be hard to understand, but I support nuclear, heck I support nuclear in Ireland be that existing standard reactors, thorium salt, SMRs, you name it.

    I just also acknowledge the actual, hard, realities of the ground that if you want one built here by golly you want to get it into planning now and don't expect to see it produce a drop of energy this side of 2050 if you're an extreme optimist. And few if any of our existing political class are even considering nuclear currently.

    This is a country that held up essential water treatment facilities for nearly a decade in Dublin because of NIMBYism, they simply are more afraid of losing their cushy jobs to a major anti nuclear protest tha of letting the country sleepwalk into an acute energy crisis

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,509 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    I’m all for nuclear if it would make financial sense, but does Ireland have its own source of uranium and if we do would our theoretical nuclear plant enrich the uranium to the 2-3% of U235 required?

    How much energy would this enrichment use?

    Also what would we do with the nuclear waste?

    How would we secure the plant from lets say a terrorist attack?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Ireland would just buy ready made nuclear fuel, like most EU countries with reactors do: no need to be talking about uranium mining and enrichment, which would not be practical. There are geopolitically stable sources of uranium, like Australia and Canada.

    Dealing with nuclear waste can be long fingered - a cultural practice Ireland is a world leader in, so it's not an issue. When your grandchildren eventually really want it got rid of, they turn it into Synroc and deposit it into a 100 million year old salt layer, like the one off the coast of Dublin.

    Fences, security guards. There has never been a terrorist attack on a NPP.

    As to financial sense. Let's take solar. Renewables advocates will tell you it's cheap - it isn't. Utility scale solar in Ireland would be more expensive than Finland's OL-3 reactor, which cost €11 Billion. To replicate just the energy output of that reactor would cost €15.05 Billion in solar panels, before even thinking of adding storage batteries that would probably cost more than that.

    The UAE is building a massive solar/storage system to provide 1 GW for 3.5 hours. If it comes in on budget, it will be 3 times more expensive than the UAE's nuclear reactors, over the long term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,509 ✭✭✭✭tom1ie


    Don’t disagree with anything your saying cnocbui, except the whole buying ready made uranium.
    Does that not just make us dependent on other countries for raw fuel yet again?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    Finally it’s starting to seep into the thickest of sculls that nuclear is the future

    countries such as Canada and Australia?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_uranium_production

    better than being reliant on China on solar and batteries and all the rare earths and copper those require, China destroyed and bankrupted all the European producers with state subsidies for this tech



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,998 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes it does, but with a refuelling cycle of 18 months, to years, there is scope and leeway to seek alternative sources while continuing to generate power. It's not like gas, where an Orc tanker or sub breaking the pipeline to the UK would cause instant chaos. You can't have a Straits of Hormuz type of event.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,799 ✭✭✭bored65


    It costs $28 million per year per typical reactor using just 150 tons of uranium in a year, fuel is a single percentage digit cost of any NPP

    That’s equivalent energy output to burning 3 million tons of coal

    To give a comparison Moneypoint used to burn 2 million tons of coal per year

    All to generate zero co2 while not making us reliant on China or gas producers



  • Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators Posts: 11,436 Mod ✭✭✭✭CatInABox


    John Gibbons, someone that campaigned for nuclear in Ireland, has changed his mind.

    Oddly enough, an article that pretty much sums up what I think of the current state of the energy market, although I'd clarify that new nuclear does make sense in countries that already have a very developed nuclear industry.

    In other countries, I just don't see how it competes long term. Even SMRs won't solve the issue.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 16,047 ✭✭✭✭josip


    The fuel for a NPP is an ongoing logistical consideration and a constant dependency on other countries. By the time an NPP is operational, the political landscape could have changed dramatically. Canadians might no longer be apologising.

    Solar panels, batteries and wind are the opposite. Once we have them, we are truly independent. After Trump, the Israelis and our own motorway idiots in recent weeks, im going to expedite getting panels, batteries and a changeover switch at the home place. Not prepared to wait for the country to move on an NPP, not that it would happen in my lifetime anyway. But increased solar and wind can.



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