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US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

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Comments

  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,706 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    It is stupid, but that's irrelevant to the question of "what now?" given we're in it.

    I disagree.

    They may not be able to force them open tomorrow or next week. But they can be opened with sufficient application of time and resources. Israel is not 'tiny', it's an entire country. A tanker is a point target, and it's a lot easier to protect a 500m bubble than it is to protect a country of 10mn people.

    Do you believe there is a chance of a negotiated solution which results in the withdrawal of support by Iran for organisations like Hezbullah? Israel didn't kick this off because they were bored and pick Iran out of a hat. Iran is not a friend to much of the world, a solution which allows Iran to say "OK, we'll let you sail through our straits" is not beneficial to the West, and will result in Iran feeling it is in a more powerful position than it was when this kicked off. You are right, this is far more likely to end in settlement than in surrender, but the end result of that settlement is going to depend very much on the situation at the time.

    And I never said Europe needs to blow the sh-t out of anything. If nothing attacks them, they don't attack anyone or anything, and if something does attack them, there's no need to do anything more than shoot down whatever's coming at them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,507 ✭✭✭✭ILoveYourVibes


    You are 100% correct several countries including the philipines etc have emergency warnings on fuel now, Ethiopa and also Nambia. Its going to be awful. We will be called EVERYTHING under the sun but we have to stand up and try to do the right thing.

    Iraq Gaza and Lebanon have shown us what will happen to Iran if they fall. It will be a bloodbath.

    We will be called everything under the sun anti-semites /anti-ukrainian/anti-USA/anti-European whatever but we honestly need to be a voice to get people talking and try to stop this diplomatically its the only sane response.

    There will be global instability if we don't.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,364 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    No genocide is right, including the one Israel is committing in Gaza, or the one it's gearing up to commit in Lebanon. But no one in the West seems to be doing anything about it, apart from being 'deeply concerned' (see today's comment on the apartheid law to mass execute Palastinians in Gaza and the West Bank). America's extreme religious fundamentalist (see Hegseth's comments today) Trump regime is in the wrong and all of Europe should be aligning against it and Israel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,628 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    We're in the incredible situation now where there is no particular rush or onus on Iran to end the war quickly and it might even be in their interests to keep it going for several months. This is how unbelievably badly Trump and Netanyahu judged the situation - they never guessed for a moment that Iran might not only survive the initial attack but actually gain the upper hand as the weeks progress.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,364 ✭✭✭Tazz T


    Once the US is gone home to rearm, you can guarantee that Iran will quickly acquire the bomb. If their nuclear infrastructure is gone, I'm sure someone will be happy to sell them a few. They would be stupid not to. Finally Israel got it right - 'Iran is just a few weeks from acquiring a nuke' - thanks to Israel.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 43,671 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Do you believe there is a chance of a negotiated solution which results in the withdrawal of support by Iran for organisations like Hezbullah?

    Probably the same chance as America withdrawing support of the Genocidal Regime in Israel.

    But to get back to the point.

    The only solution to this conflict is at the table.

    Europe would be daft to get involved in a military dispute that has no basis in law or not of their making.

    Iran will continue, as will the Middle East long after Trump gets bored of the conflict.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    I cant see Europeans or any other parties going near Hormuz with their fleets. If America does leave the region without any sort of negotiated solution or Hormuz still blocked they have just left Iran economically better off. Really USA have damaged their reputation with this folly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,779 ✭✭✭amandstu


    You would think they would form an all party coalition to navigate a way out of the mess they have landed us all in.

    That is what Britain did in WW2.

    Now Trump is using the war to score points off his political opponents and Nato "allies" and ,I guess refusing to take military (or any) advice from outside his Circle of Cronies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,184 ✭✭✭✭banie01


    The notion of "national government"ala the UK model of WW2 or even rainbow coalition is fundamentally impossible within the US political system.
    Not just because it's a 2 party system but also, even the ascendant party quickly becomes irrelevant when the Executive function and operation of government just ignores the legislature.
    Trump isnt just nominally acting as a Monarch, he is pushing the Unitary Executive Theory to its extreme limits.

    **Edit**
    Just to add regarding the wider possibility of an International coalition willing to negotiate an end to the Gulf, rather than just US politics.
    The US has descended to a level of mistrust and perfidy that it will take years post Trump to recover from.
    You cannot expect nations who have witnessed the actions of US re: Ukraine, Greenland, Venezuela, Iran and ongoing efforts against Cuba & Ecuador to put any faith in any guarantee or promise offered by the US or indeed Israel.

    They and their actions have placed themselves very much in the Rogue State category.
    There can be coalition without a degree of confidence in the positions of ones partners, if not their long term aims.
    Trump shifts policies and positions faster than a crack whore trying to finish of a John before their next tweek.
    Untrustworthy, perfidious and treacherous.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,891 ✭✭✭Sudden Valley


    Its too late to form a party of willing partners, the USA's ignored call for help a few weeks ago showed that.

    Its probably cheaper in the long run to pay the Iranian toll. Of course, this wont work for US and Israel but they did land us in this situation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,442 ✭✭✭brickster69


    They are already talking about leaving non proliferation treaty because it does not provide the protections that it should. Twice been attacked by 2 nuclear armed states, 6 attacks on nuclear facilities to date and the IAEA has never condemned the attacks in any of them yet.

    Even at the UN most countries stood silent and said nothing. Given no one say's anything about Israel having nuclear weapons for decades what is the point, may as well do the same as they do. Build nukes and pretend they don't have them.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,221 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    The double standards of the western world is quite disgusting. The west has certainly lost any perceived moral authority it thought it had. Allowing the Gaza genocide (ongoing) without intervention will haunt the west for decades to come.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Only twice? As opposed to being physically invaded and quarter of a country occupied by a nuclear armed state committing genocide, since 2012, a state that promised security guarantees

    /S



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,555 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    The only action Europe should be taking is whats slowly happening and thats to close their airspace to the US.

    IF Trump decides to pull out without any further escalation then Europe can negotiate directly with Iran to get ships moving.

    I cant see how Trump descalates this though. The only way he gets a Win is to escalate and pray. Every other action is a descalation and a Win for Iran



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Why would Europe get involved in this clusterf**k?

    Only about 3-4 million barrels to Europe came from Gulf, they can switch to Saudi west coast where the pipeline is already at 7-8 million barrels

    It’s the Asian countries and China who imported vast majority of Gulf oil and having all the fun now



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,555 ✭✭✭PokeHerKing


    Its already existential for Iran. I think theyve shown a good escalatory control so far which proves theres still a command structure in place.

    But I also think they know theres a real chance to deal a fatal blow to US presence in the ME.

    I dont think theyll give that chance up without extracting maximum value.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,628 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    I'm not sure 'the West' will even exist in a recognisable form going forward. The US seems to have gone off on its own right wing authoritarian tangent - that will leave just the likes of the EU, Canada, Australia, Japan etc. Must be slowly dawning on everyone too that the violent terrorist entity known as Israel is now a severe liability and is not an ally of any liberal democracy in the West.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,697 ✭✭✭yagan


    Some major container and tanker shipping have passed through in recent days. If what I've read is correct the first ships totally underwritten by Hong Kong brokers passed through without issue, so it will be interesting to see if the rate of passage increases over the next week, especially as Trump seems to be skulking away from the mess he made.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 863 ✭✭✭Fuascailteoir


    Think they will need cast iron guarantees that it won't be repeated. Although how do you trust either the US or israel. How do they even enter negotiations when both also use that platform as a means to murder the negotiating team



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    The only time the “west” got involved to prevent genocide was in Balkans {to save Muslims} in 90s and all that resulted was decades of those on the Left moaning about militant NATO and likes of Putin using it as justification for his own genocide and colonialism

    What countries in the “west” do you propose would get involved in an “intervention”?
    What about us in Ireland who don’t have a military (and the very left that wants interventions doesn’t want any military spend here or in Europe)?

    Why would “west” intervene in Middle East when last intervention went so swimmingly well?

    Why would they intervene in Middle East when not intervening in Ukraine or Sudan?

    Why doesn’t the “East” intervene? I don’t see the Chinese self flagellating themselves

    It’s all well and good moaning about the evil “west” on a public forum, but do you actually support increased taxes and military spend towards such interventions?? Because I suspect for many on the Left the answer is no



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 311 ✭✭Derkaiser93


    The fascist meat heads of the US administration like Trump and Hegseth can't accept or cope with the fact that their Michael Bay style bombing of Iran isn't yielding strategic results. Yes they've done massive damage to Iran, but they're failing in their strategic objectives and are arguably worse off strategically than before the war with the strait closed.

    Their bases across the region damaged, planes lost , decades of patriot and thaad missiles expended in weeks. Allies deserting them.

    They can't handle it so now they're lashing out at the Europeans and nato and blaming everyone else bar themselves and their puppet masters Israel.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,221 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Why are you now quoting my posts without actually quoting them? Do you wake up in the morning and just decide you're going to take offence with everyone?

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    Having issues on mobile, fixed now

    Any comments on which countries in the “west” you propose “intervene” and why don’t the “east” intervene since they get majority of their resources from this region unlike the “west”



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,423 ✭✭✭patnor1011


    Sorry but this is Trump level of thinking.

    Strait can not be forced open. It simply cant. Broke ass Houthis held shipping hostage and can do the same at any point despite being bombed to stone age and their country in ruins. Iran can block any and every attempt to "force open" Strait. No EU country is going to send warship to that place and rightly so. Even USA moved hundreds of km from there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    You have quite the obsession with "the left", seems to cloud your judgement.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,697 ✭✭✭yagan


    Plus they've completely exposed all the GCC members as just being no better than British style "protectorates" rather than countries in their own right.

    Every time one of the GCC complained that they're neutral when an Iranian missile hit a US base they only showed how much they're simply prisoners of US foreign policy.

    If Trump pulls back military assets from the GCC I can see more domestic dissident groups moving on the puppet rulers.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    You don’t see the inherent contradictions in

    • not wanting any military spend or military alliances from one side of your mouth
    • wanting interventions in various wars out of the other side of your mouth

    and the hypocrisy of this



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,085 ✭✭✭Rocket_GD


    And this is what everyone who is in anyway left leaning is saying?

    You've spoken to everyone with left tendencies or are you just lumping people into a group to suit your agenda and perceived hypocrisies?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 927 ✭✭✭bored65


    I’m specifically talking about the far left

    I’ve no issues with some center left policies, plenty of them in this country and they grand

    But the anti defence, anti NATO, anti EU (see previous page) stance is in direct contradiction with wanting “interventions” and “the west is disgusting” self flagellation

    Especially when the same people are actively arguing earlier in thread against respecting neutrality of countries or supporting attacks on civilians, or for that matter the concept of international laws and institutions



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,539 ✭✭✭✭rob316


    IRGC just put out a statement to tell employees of US tech companies in the Gulf to keep away, they will be targeting them from tomorrow.



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