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Nuclear - future for Ireland?

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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Please provide links to support your opinions.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Biomass from rainforests ? That's nuclear power. DRAX provides the power that Hinkley C doesn't. It's the poster example of why you don't wait for nuclear.

    If supermarkets paid farmers properly then they might not have to consider biomass or solar. But they don't so it's win-win.

    Yes we are pretty maxed out with hydro. But it can allow 20 times it's production of non-synch on the grid. And we can add more pumped storage. Again more useful for it's multiplier effect than it's actual production. What's the status on the Silvermines ?

    Maybe it's even possible to have two Turlough turbines pumping and two generating at the same time which would allow nearly 3GW of renewables on the grid ???

    Tidal - Northern Ireland. IIRC 300MW earmarked.

    Geothermal - we are talking about 2050 who knows how deep we can go by then. It's being done in Cornwall. NI looks promising.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    Since when has anyone suggested we follow less successful implementations. You are fabricating strawmen but that is Just one example of the strategies to which you don't mind stopping.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,597 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Another broadcast from the Twilight Zone.

    At present production leves the UAE have also, like oil, 100 years of reserves.

    Iran has four times the reserves of the UAE.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I'd argue that nuclear simply won't be needed since

    A - we will have eliminated almost all of our emissions by the time it arrives on any sort of scale to make an impact.

    B - we can't manage the issues of peak demand / spinning reserve / multiple reactors being offline at the same time

    BTW This year it's most probable that globally Wind + Solar will produce TWICE the TWh that nuclear produces. (yes they do scale)

    image.png

    In the first three quarters of 2025, solar generation rose by 498 TWh (+31%) … Wind generation grew by 137 TWh (+7.6%).

    A 31% jump in Solar would have it neck and neck with Nuclear (2787/2778) for 2025 , but racing ahead this year.

    image.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,603 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Sorry, anyone posting suggestions of SMRs or now TNRs, could equally be accused of bad-faith posting.

    Rolls Royce who keep most of us in the air and are far from technologically inept won't touch small nuclear without an open checkbook from the government.

    Skunk Works back in 2014 announced they would have a Compact Fusion Reactor working in 5 years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_Martin_Compact_Fusion_Reactor

    And they've closed the door on that project long ago. If those 2 can't get viable small nuclear working, it's going to be a big ask for someone else to do it.

    If we're going to discuss an NPP for Ireland, I think it has to be a bog standard 1.4GW plant that has already been proven. But how many locations in the country are suitable for a 1.4GW reactor? And I think we'd need 2 for redundancy? Is Moneypoint the only possible location?

    It's been 20 years and we haven't been able to get the North South interconnector near started. How long would it take to get the grid ready for multiple NPPs?

    There isn't a political party that wants to support nuclear at the moment. How will legislation get changed to allow nuclear?

    Even before we examine the commercial viability of it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,872 ✭✭✭✭cnocbui


    Yes you have, you pretend it doesn't exist and that Hermione will fly in on a broom any day now and cast a few spells and energy storage problem solved. You have been asked multiple times to name and cost a solution but you just obfuscate and slither away into the long grass.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,597 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Some very good points there, but should we not be examining the commercial viability of what we are plowing money into at the moment, with a plan to keep doing so that nobody is able to put a financial cost too, or the resulting costs of electricity to the consumer.

    I look on SMRs and TNRs in the same way I look on anti nuclear renewable proposals that pop up out of nowhere. They are just the latest shinny things that until they can prove their effectiveness and commercial viability can be consigned to the back burner.

    Our grid problems are not with nuclear. Our grid is presently handling ~15% of our demand without any problem. The problems are wind farms, and especially solar that generates alternating current, scattered around the country far from where the demand is using a grid to carry this generation to where it is needed that wasn`t designed to do so in the first place.

    Our projected demand for 2050, depending on who you listen too, is going to be 15.5 GW or 22.5GW. That demand is not going to be universal countrywide. The major demands will be centered around our main cities so you would start to cater for that with NPPs as close as possible to those areas and that would eliminating a lot of the grid problems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    What does Halal or Kosher mean to our eco buddies. I won't take that criticism about SMRs when there are or will be Iron Air batteries in the arsê end of Donegal, rainforest wood chip in repurposed power stations and anchored blimps are getting supported in Offaly along with whooping up floating turbines off the coasts. There is boundless budget and encouragement for what is deemed Halal but start talking about Nuclear and the minions would have us believe it will never work.

    All these carbon neutral projects are expensive performative nonsense.

    Post edited by tppytoppy on


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    You are hoping that despite the punitive costs that wind and solar will have a stranglehold on the energy supply market before new modern nuclear plants can compete. If you can get the nation ensnared in multi-decade contracts for supply at high rates so much the better.

    Regulatory capture is already a barrier in use. Legally a nuclear plant can't be built in Ireland. It is all going to plan at present. You don't care if the public have to pay enviro Tithes forever more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,597 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    If that is supposed to be comedy, it`s a poor effort.

    I have given you in numerous post verifiable data on the cost of this proposal you favor that show it is economically unviable. You have not provided a single figure to show otherwise. Instead you have chosen to ignore and continue to post such nonsense as French electricity exports were from renewables when renewable companies were buying more nuclear than France was exporting.

    We also had you insisting that the cost of turbines was going to decrease dramatically when you had been continually shown that turbine manufacturers were losing money hand over fist with the result that costs overnight rose by 60% - 70%. We also had the long drawn out saga of you insisting that all it would take to keep turbines operating years past their lifespan, nothing much more would be required than a bit of tape and sticking plaster. An insistence that you yourself eventually blew out of the water citing a Scottish onshore wind farm as being an example. Your latest has been that the UAE and Iran have nuclear because they want to sell more oil and gas. The UAE has 100 years of both oil and gas reserves. Iran has twice the reserves of oil that the UAE has and four times the gas reserves.

    Rather than address posts you throw up renewable hopiums that have already been debunked as financially unviable and when asked to show they are otherwise, you are off again on another prolonged anti nuclear rant as a distraction. Your posts are no different to that of a cult member`s playbook. Ranting and raving in the echo chamber of their own head, attacks, ignoring uncomfortable facts and questions while attempting to distract by quoting the cult doctrines.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    I suggest you bring your opinions unbacked claims to the attention of Eigrid at your earliest convenience.

    As they seem to be of the opinion that they are going about it the right way and you should be able to save them billions, at some distant point in the future, whereas they are probably more focused on keeping the lights on for the next 20 years.

    The onus is on you to explain how in the event nuclear throws a wobblie 75% of the synchronous component can be replaced within 5 seconds.

    And how nuclear would be backed during the construction delays, commissioning delays - because the first few years of a new plant can be a but jittery, refuelling outages and unplanned outages , and Black Swan events like the Korean fake parts scandal that took multiple reactors offline at the same time.

    And what use nuclear would be on an already decarbonised grid where most of the generators are out of contract or will be in a few years time vs. nuclear which needs to be paid for whether it's electricity is needed or not, and where it doesn't produce enough electricity to to do the heavy lifting at peak demand.

    Nuclear is a solution looking for a problem, and it's not even remotely close to being a full solution. It requires lots of zero-carbon peaking plant, the very existence of which proves nuclear isn't needed.

    Worst case scenario - by the time nuclear could arrive here it almost certainly be cheaper to just buy foreign carbon credits to cater for the few remaining % of reducing emissions for a few years until we get to true net-zero, rather than mortgage the future to feeding a white elephant.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Unless you can provide cheaper low carbon electricity until nuclear arrives then we are set on our current path.

    And if half of it is already paid for and operation is on O&M costs by the time nuclear could arrive then nuclear electricity wouldn't be worth much most of the time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,404 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Turlough Hill is a single shaft it cannot have simultaneous pumping and generation.

    Hydro cannot accommodate 20 times it's production in non synchronous generators. The current maximum SNSP ratio is 25:75 or 1:3. Hydro itself probably cannot support that SNSP, it isn't the same as thermal generation and doesn't have similar inertia levels wrt output as it spins slower and uses extra magnetic poles to emulate the faster spin of thermal generation.

    Tidal is unproven at scale and the only significant generator they had in NI (Seagen 4MW) was decommissioned as a failure. 300MW has been talked about since 2005 and none of it is likely to materialise.

    But yeah, nuclear is fanciful...

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 316 ✭✭tppytoppy


    That sounds more like you taunting me that the game has already been stolen than looking for alternatives like more efficient gas plants until nuclear comes on line. I might agree with you on that but don't expect any sensible person struggling to pay their energy bills to be thankful to the Greenies for having put us in this dire situation.

    So much damage done.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Turlough Hill has 4 turbines

    SNSP today is 75% , the target is 95% ie 19:1

    Water is denser than steam so there's that.

    2050 is neither today nor tomorrow. The conditions for tidal race are there off NI, and there's a tidal dam in Korea. A Shannon barrage would generate huge amounts of power but might upset the twitchers. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.

    Nuclear on time, on budget, is fanciful as is expecting to not have a Black Swan event.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,288 ✭✭✭greasepalm


    I do hope they move away from nuclear power as watched Chernobyl and the grief it caused.

    So many other types of power might be safer , Solar , Wind , Wave



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Until last year the contracts for renewables were for 15 years with a fixed start date. All of them be well out of contract before nuclear appears.

    New contacts are now for 20 years , again many of them will be out of contract before there could be multiple reactors reliably online.

    Nuclear turning up afterwards would have to rely on supporting itself solely by providing missing capacity unless , and so many accusations are admissions, you plan is to steal capacity from renewable plant that's already on the grid ?

    Also Nuclear will also be competing with the price of short term storage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,603 ✭✭✭✭josip


    Chernobyl cant happen with modern NPPs; it could only happen with that particular Soviet design.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Good thing Fukushima Daiichi didn't use them then eh?

    And that lads at Fukushima Daini were able to jury rig 9Km of cabling by hand to prevent three meltdowns there after all the redundant backup power failed.

    And that Yanosuke Hirai insisted that the Onagawa plant was built 14.8m above sea level.

    And at Tokai the third diesel generator could power the cooling system. And that the extensions to the sea wall were completed two days before the tsunami.

    Japan and by extension the entire nuclear industry dodged a few bullets there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,404 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Turlough Hill could have 104 turbines and it would make no difference. There is a single shaft bored in the mountain shared by all 4 existing turbines. They cannot simultaneously pump and generate. The mountain would literally vibrate to bits. There's a reason why they generate at either 5MW or 45MW and nothing in between or that they're all turned off before swapping from generation mode to pump mode or vice versa. The physical constraints of the mountain and it's electromechanics don't allow for anything else.

    Who cares if water is denser than steam or if steam is denser than helium. The thermodynamics and electromechanics of the generators is not the issue in breaking the barrier of SNSP. It's the physics of electromagnetics interacting with electronic controllers that is the limiting factor. The target SNSP is as far away now as it was in 2020. There's a reason why Eirgrid haven't been able to increase it as system security doesn't allow.

    There's too many controller interactions and adding ever more IBRs into the mix (whether wind, solar or BESS) is exacerbating the issue. We've already lost both interconnectors importing simultaneously (May 2024 almost 1GW or 23% of the load at the time and we were lucky to survive) due to a technical fault that was enhanced by the batteries. Yeah we might have added a 3rd interconnector since but there's no guarantee it wouldn't happen again. The more you rely on electronic controllers monitoring and responding to the voltage waveform, the more risk you introduce. Whereas spinning thermal generation electromagnetically coupled to the system will give you an inherent response faster than the electronic controller can ever detect something has happened, nevermind respond. There's some physics that matter, not rubbish about water densities.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 15,603 ✭✭✭✭josip


    I thought that Synchronous Condensors were the chosen path to 95% SNSP?

    And that there are at least 4 at various stages of delivery at the moment and will be operational by 2030?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,404 ✭✭✭✭machiavellianme


    Synchronous condensers provide voltage support and inertia and not much else. They cannot provide the same electromagnetic torque as an equivalent sized generator as there's no prime mover and the rotor doesn't create the supporting magnetic field. It's basically a dumb lump of metal spinning in tandem with the grid and if the grid starts to fall over, it goes with it rather than try to prop it up like a thermal generator might.

    They're helpful at 95% SNSP but they won't be the magic bullet to deliver it.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,942 ✭✭✭SeanW


    How do you figure that? How often does the SNSP chart hit 50% and what exactly would be involved in "doubling down" on renewables each time it happened?

    As to your question about winter demand, say for example, Ireland were predicted to enter an extreme winter anti-cyclone similar to that of Christmas 2010. No wind, 100% cloud cover, temperatures plummeting to -17C, lasting for at least 1 week. Which would you prefer to have on hand:

    1. A bunch of solar panels and ugly windmills.
    2. A number of nuclear reactors.

    I assume the answer is 2, and for obvious reasons. As for Black Swan events, frankly, even if we started building a nuclear plant now, by the time it came online BESS would be much cheaper, things like Sodium-ion batteries, solid state and Lord knows what else will likely be commonplace in 20 years time. Pair a massive sodium ion battery with grid-forming inverters, and that's your "plants offline" case covered. Include also all the interconnectors with the UK, France, and other European links, and there are other options.

    Speaking of Black Swan events, you haven't covered how doubling down on renewables would help us with a repeat of Christmas 2010, nor have you (so far as I can tell) determined where we're going to get your "transition fuel" now that there have been two major wars (one launched by Russia in Ukraine and another in Middle East) gravely affecting our gas supply.

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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,049 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    I imagine those that experienced the Magnitude 9 earthquake and resulting tsunami that caused untold devastation and killed tens of thousands of people don't feel like they dodged a few bullets tbh. Fukushima, if anything, shows the resilience of nuclear in the face of almost unimaginable natural catastrophe but unfortunately the world learned the complete wrong lessons from it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17 on the bog


    Or resilience of nuclear power in a war zone for 12 years

    https://www.ft.com/content/96676f06-9cd5-434e-8314-e880ae7f6b93?syn-25a6b1a6=1

    Germany having second doubts now

    IMG_6745.jpeg


  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    image.png

    We're getting 50% most of the time recently

    Purple areas are the only ones where we would need to top up SNSP although I haven't included the 5% from hydo / CHP / waste to energy / biomass / biogas / and a reducing amount of fossil fuel until 2050 we'd need to keep SNSP to 95% max.

    Purple areas could be supplied from more storage. And/or increasing the flow across the interconnectors and/or demand reduction - 22% of demand is data centers and Uisce Eireann also use a goodly amount for pumping.

    Nuclear would only be able to then use what's left of the purple areas. And to do that you need to provide zero carbon backup and spinning reserve for nuclear, how is it to be done ?

    Your answer to Black Swan events shows that you believe there'll be enough storage for renewables to do the job. But we would need far more spinning reserve and backup for when (not if) multiple reactor are out at the same time.

    Besides you still haven't explained how you have enough GW to handle peak demand or enough TWh to cover refuelling outages and those Black Swan events that take out multiple reactors for an extended time.



  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    It wasn't unimaginable, there were historical records that it had happened before. There were stones with inscriptions warning to never to build below this point all along the coast.

    Which of these shows resilience rather than luck.

    A seawall completed 3 days before the Tsunami ?

    An engineer's instance on preventing what was done at Fukushima Daiichi to make it cheaper to pump water ?

    A herculean effort by the engineers on site to manhandle one tonne segments of cable through waist deep water before three reactors went pop after every redundancy had failed ?

    Also a reminder that a lot of the Japanese plants never restarted because they weren't up to code. Resilience my arse.



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  • Moderators, Recreation & Hobbies Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 98,142 Mod ✭✭✭✭Capt'n Midnight


    Fair point on the single shaft. D'oh.

    Instead suppose you had Turlough Hill and the Silvermines pumped storage then you could alternatively use one generating while pumping the other, allowing ~18 times the output of SNSP on the grid.

    While high inertial generators are good to have on the grid you don't want to be faced with over reliance on very large ones unless you can backup them up.

    At present the way we'd do that is to have open cycle gas running at 2/3rs max power so the could ramp up output very quickly. This is impossible at the scale of nuclear as the emissions from gas would outweigh any possible benefits.



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