Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Sleepy · 30-03-2026 10:33AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350230#Comment_124350230

Illogical argument. If oil can't be exported at the rate it's being extracted, the rate of extraction will be reduced. Tthere's only so much that can be stored in the depots etc. and that storage capacity is being reduced on an almost nightly basis by Ukraine's kinetic sanctions.

Also, if the private companies are bearing the brunt of the financial losses, that makes Putin's position less secure as, ultimately, this war is his folly and the oligarchs supporting him must have some breaking point at which they'll turn on him.

bored65 · 30-03-2026 10:41AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350230#Comment_124350230

Since the industries oligarchs own have been de facto nationalised it is Russia who ultimately pays the cost, see report from couple days ago

https://bsky.app/profile/thestudyofwar.bsky.social/post/3mi3idvzx5r2o

Russia only has two major oil exporting terminals {there’s also two smaller ones in Arctic and far east but they are not connected to main oil pipeline network due to distances and costs}

the ones in Baltic that are burning
and Black Sea that were also repeatedly attacked and ships in Black Sea undefended and hounded now

Oil could be worth 100+ of dollars and Trump lift export restrictions but if Russia can’t export majority of their oil out of its ports and pipelines they can’t gain financially towards this war,

same goes for their dark fleet tankers, something like 25+ been seized this year alone and UK made it clear they will seize any that go near their waters

And that’s before we get to Ukrainians blowing up ships at sea now

FishOnABike · 30-03-2026 10:57AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350192#Comment_124350192

Larege industry boss promotes large industry… and in the next news for the bloody obvious, water is wet.

I wouldn't see what he says about Ukraine's domestically produced drones as a negative. Simple to build, using off the shelf parts, make to demand using 3d printing, distributed manufacturing, orders of magnitude cheaper than the targets or enemy drones they destroy.

They may not be a very significant technological advance but they are a very significant strategic advance that changes the nature and cost of traditional warfare and presents new challenges to an occupying force

Domestically produced drones don't replace big industry but they do complement it and together present a increased challenge to an invader.

Paddigol · 30-03-2026 10:58AM

Just to be clear - it's not my argument I'm just sharing the thoughts of another non-Russian economist. I see it was actually referenced in the Telegraphs podcast last week too. I've no idea of the ins/outs of oil production and export economics.

At the end of the day a few things are clear to me;

Degradation of Russian processing and exportation infrastructure = good.
Increase in oil prices globally = bad.
Easing of sanctions on purchase of Russian oil = bad.
Continued purchase by India and China or Russian oil & gas = bad.

If we can get Brave President Heelspur and the Genocidal Maniac in Tel Aviv to quickly wind down actions in Iran, the rest of the world stands to benefit. That should see oil prices drop and sanctions re-imposed on Russia. I'd like to see a doubling down on those sanctions - which would make Ukraine's targeting of oil infrastructure really pay dividends.

As an aside, I wonder if Ukraine have the intel and/ or range to start targeting weapons manufacturing plants in Russia (like the hit we saw a few days ago)? That would be a really hard hitting left hoot/ right hook combo for Putin to have to absorb. Not sure what Russia has done with its air defences since Ukraine started systematically targeting them the last few months… are they concentrated around Moscow/ Putin's Palaces and Weapons Factories?

Paddigol · 30-03-2026 11:12AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124324924#Comment_124324924

Five EU governments found to ‘consistently’ dismantle rule of law | Civil liberties - international | The Guardian

Italy under Meloni in the same regressive bracket as Hungary and Slovakia according to the report referenced here.

Things move slowly in the EU, unlike in the US. This has its drawbacks as we've seen over the past few years, but also provides a greater degree of stability. Hopefully steps are in train to bring in appropriate rules designed to curb the efforts of the Right to undermine the social and civil freedoms that have underpinned all of the good progress in Europe since the '70s.

Dubh Geannain · 30-03-2026 11:14AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350479#Comment_124350479

Hormuz will be open by April 6th because Trump issued/re-issued a deadline 😂😂

cnocbui · 30-03-2026 11:52AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350476#Comment_124350476

Thats an accurate depition of Ukrainian drones, but theres a bit more to them now. Several of the inteceptor drones have AI based terminaal target recognition and guidance. The Orcs have put rear facing cameras in many of their drones to detect the interceptors and then execute evasive manoeuvers. In turn, their interceptors Have had their systems adjusted to counter this.

I think Heir Rhinemetal is trying to convince the gulf states to buy lots of his companys single point defence solutions that cost millions apiece rather than see the money go to Ukrainian competitors for their orders of magnitude cheaper area defence solution using drones.

Apart from the cost differential, his US inspired, costly, technologically complex solutions can not be mass produced. If the gulf states were to place orders tommorow, it would be years before they receive deliveries.

He can 5hit talk Ukraine all he likes, but Ukraine has a solution that is cheaper and deliverable an order of magnitude quicker, and being area in nature, is superior.

He's selling AA guns while Ukraines selling an airbase with hundreds of fighter jets that can cover tens of square km and deal with hundreds of targets simultneously. The manpower requirement is higher but fewer drones reach their targets.

Apiarist · 30-03-2026 11:54AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350479#Comment_124350479

Re: air defenses. As far as I understand, the air defenses on both sides are stretched really thin. Russia sends around 1000 drones per day into Ukraine. Ukraine sends around 600 per day. Russia has more area and more difficult-to-defend targets, so Ukraine can score more effective hits than Russia. The next defense step is to have swarms of AI-controlled loitering drones hovering around sensitive installations that would attack incoming drones.

cnocbui · 30-03-2026 12:22PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350479#Comment_124350479

Yes, Ukraine have the range and intel, thanks to France and others, to target weapons factories, they hit multiple, like the balistic missile galvanising plant a few weeks ago with a Flamingo at 1400 km from their border, but the flght route was 1800 km.

https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/02/26/flamingo-strike/

What they tend to do more of is target the critical component, chemical and explosives manufacturers, which degrade multipe down stream weapons manufacturers with single hits.

https://united24media.com/latest-news/ukrainian-fp-5-flamingo-missiles-hit-key-russian-explosives-plant-in-samara-region-17370

Dubh Geannain · 30-03-2026 03:10PM

Predictable -

If the reason for the calls is to relieve pressure on oil prices then here's a thought;

Stop bombing Iran!

Zelensky urges Russia to halt energy strikes

Paddigol · 30-03-2026 04:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351089#Comment_124351089

Yeah, the irony isn't lost on anyone with critical faculties intact.

Essentially;

"Hi, Ukraine? This is the wealthy West who have been kinda-but-not-fully behind you in your existential war with Russia. Would you mind not bombing their oil facilities so that our pampered citizens don't have to feel the effects of TACO's war on Iran and so that we can pump billions of dollars into Russia's coffers so that they can continue to destroy your country while we wring our hands? Thanks!"

TheValeyard · 30-03-2026 04:48PM

They cant all be a success unfortunately. But each failure helps them learn something new. But we've seen some great strikes from the new missiles so far.

https://twitter.com/Maks_NAFO_FELLA/status/2038642637041775044

TheValeyard · 30-03-2026 04:50PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350515#Comment_124350515

TACO again?

TheValeyard · 30-03-2026 05:18PM

Be interesting to see if this sort of thing leads to actual civil unrest.

https://twitter.com/JayinKyiv/status/2038508012826923080

Apiarist · 30-03-2026 05:20PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351326#Comment_124351326

Well, two out of three reached the overall area, it's not too bad. Flamingo missiles are not as precise or reliable as more expensive Western missiles. Ukraine will have to send more Flamingos flying towards this factory.

TheValeyard · 30-03-2026 05:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351398#Comment_124351398

Definitely. But they are getting better at it.

Paddigol · 30-03-2026 06:15PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351455#Comment_124351455

If there's one thing the Ukrainians have demonstrated repeatedly since Putin invaded on day 1 of his 3 day war, it's their ability to innovate, observe, adapt and perfect. I've 99.99% confidence that they expected shortcomings from initial use of Flamingo and are fully prepped to take that data and refine their operations.

midlander12 · 30-03-2026 06:43PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351089#Comment_124351089

That would be the same 'ally' that is suddenly breaking its own blockade on Cuba to let a Russian oil tanker through? Is there literally nothing he won't do for his bestie Vlad?

brickster69 · 30-03-2026 07:40PM

::: Wrong thread

brickster69 · 30-03-2026 07:40PM

::

Yeah_Right · 30-03-2026 08:25PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351705#Comment_124351705

What's this got to do with Russia's invasion of Ukraine?

bored65 · 30-03-2026 08:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351787#Comment_124351787

Russia wouldn’t bother with notions like laws as they just outright kill and torture prisoners, and their own soldiers for that matter

Ozymandius2011 · 30-03-2026 09:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350479#Comment_124350479

Trump is also saying that he doesn't mind a Russian oil ship bringing oil to Cuba.

Obviously undermines his pressure campaign against them.

Manic Moran · 31-03-2026 12:50AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124346121#Comment_124346121

Not sure why you say they are 'pioneered by Ukrainians'. As the link you put observed, the US has had small drone craft in the area since before the Ukraine war. They've been used as part of a regular force in conjunction with the Bahrainians since 2021.

https://www.centcom.mil/MEDIA/NEWS-ARTICLES/News-Article-View/Article/2823957/navcent-task-force-completes-first-unmanned-integration-exercise-at-sea/

The US's unmanned surface vessel program has been quite varied since at least 2017, varying from the sUSV (which is about the size of the 'sea drones' we think of after Ukraine's combat use) to the lUSV which is twice the displacement of the Irish Navy's newest patrol vessels.

https://news.usni.org/2022/05/17/new-navy-unmanned-command-will-send-4-experimental-large-usvs-to-rimpac

There is a bit of a misconception that because the Ukrainians are the first to famously use something that they must be the pioneers in it. Another example comes from Germany in WW2 (Electric drive tanks, infra-red sights, rockets).

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124350323#Comment_124350323

There is the question of 'how good is good enough?'. It's been a topic of some discussion, particularly with regards the US's production of them. The reality is that the drone war in Ukraine is still pretty simplistic. The defenses on both sides are such that fairly basic drones are quite sufficient to do the job, and with a 'tweak' in the balance happening every month or so, the US is reluctant to start building cheap drones at "US Military scale" because in a year or two the stockpile of such they create will be only so many targets for efficient defenses. Build a drone now for use in the next two weeks, that's fine. If it's obsolescent next month, who cares, it's already expended. But build a war chest of cheap drones, and you are very much taking a risk of throwing money away on something which looks good on paper, but is of limited actual effectiveness.

However, as the defenses start getting better, you're starting to see the drones in Ukraine become more capable, and more expensive. Increased computation ability will add cost. Increased hardening will cost payload/range (and cost to make up for it). The reason conventional missiles cost as much as they do is that they are expected to operate capably and reliably in a difficult environment. Start making drones capable of operating in a difficult environment, and suddenly you have.. well.. missiles. So when you start talking about US systems like Switchblade, the reason they cost so much more than a drone is that they are more capable and reliable than a drone.

Ukraine doesn't need Switchblade capability. It needs 'good enough, now', not 'good for today and the next ten years because that's how long it'll be in the stores'. But the latter is what the US (and Europe) needs to build. However, I strongly expect that in a couple of weeks, you're going to see the US deploying new-production cheap drone-type systems specced out to be 'good enough' to perform over Iran.

Ozymandius2011 · 31-03-2026 12:53AM

General Syrski says that for the last 3 months, Russian casualties have exceeded replacements.

Also its reported that Ukrainian deep strikes are now equal with the number of Russian ones.

thenuisance · 31-03-2026 12:55AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351455#Comment_124351455

That pillar wont be in the way next time

TheValeyard · 31-03-2026 08:56AM

He's right

https://twitter.com/NOELreports/status/2038874593553682739

ILoveYourVibes · 31-03-2026 09:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124351089#Comment_124351089

This is something I don't understand so since the last two yrs Russia has been making its own drones. We know Iran is no longer supplying Russia with weapons.

Yet ukraine keeps saying its willing to help the USA but the USA hasn't helped Ukraine since trump got in and in fact it looks like they were leaking intel.

And i for one do not believe that even if the Democrats got back in they would go back to funding ukraine not like anything to what Biden was. I think they will look and go well we didnt fund ukraine for 4 yrs and they didn't fall do we need to help them so much?

A bunch of liberal dems were looking for peace talks a couple of yrs ago. https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/after-criticism-congressional-progressives-retract-ukraine-letter-calling-for-diplomacy

I think Zelensky offering to get involved in Iran is a huge mistake. Its an illegal war. https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-volodymyr-zelenskyy-help-unblock-strait-of-hormuz-iran-war/

Also its clear Trump will not win the war with Iran and will probably find an off rail and blame hegseth then fire him. Same old pattern.

US democrats in general still say they want to help Ukraine but now only just in young democrats.

https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2025/02/14/americans-views-of-the-war-in-ukraine-continue-to-differ-by-party/

Zelensky needs to be careful of alienating his allies. He also seems confused. As he said a long war in the middle east will hurt ukraine as europe and the USA will have to fund it diverting funds from ukraine and of course it will GREATLY help putin.

https://www.rte.ie/news/ukraine/2026/0322/1564637-ukraine-middle-east/

Zelensky seems VERY confused or else the narratives are.

Also Germany has now said its not giving fighter jets NOR missiles to Ukraine.

https://tvpworld.com/91651044/johann-wadephul-says-germany-run-out-of-missile-stockpiles-has-shortages

https://www.euronews.com/2023/01/30/germany-confirms-it-will-not-send-fighter-jets-to-ukraine

I am fearful any new govt in the USA won't put Ukraine on the agenda as much. If its trump again or worse JD Vance that isnt good.

But I don't believe the dems will put Ukraine as much on the agenda as before. I dont know really what can be done about that as well Im a nobody not worth asking advice on really. Ha . Sad tho.

I would have thought tho.. that Ukraine would have helped the dems a bit more . reached out. I mean the dems winning 2028 is important for ukraine and to keep them onside I would imagine. But then what do i know?

They seemed to have a good relationship with biden. And biden helped them get support from others and partic the UK. Presumably Zelensky realizes this. I think he pulled a favour or two for the biden family.

Dubh Geannain is correct .. Ukraine will lose support if european average working geezers feel squeezed at the pumps.

keeponhurling · 31-03-2026 09:26AM

It seems to me that Zelensky is very clear here.

If Hormuz is blocked, it is good for Putin and bad for Europe & other Ukraine allies such as Japan, South Korea etc.

It totally makes sense that Ukraine would help to unblock it, in the right circumstances.

No love lost between Ukraine and Iran either, obviously. Seeing Iran degraded militarily is a nice by-product of this war.

somenergy · 31-03-2026 09:27AM

I think the bounty on Zelenskyy head has increased

If Europe loses Ukraine they will be made come for us with Russians as barrier troops

I think the Baltics, Poles & Nordics knows this they are closer to the aggressor.

Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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