Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

Result in defaults? Its not like the US where missed payments lead to foreclosure on the property. Dont pay your mortgage for years in ireland and reality is, nothing will happen. Isnt a judge in the land that will order repossession of a primary residence that would leave a family homeless.

Here's a mad idea, instead of the govt only building for the low paid they build for everybody and charge the same % of their wages on rent. I think the going rate at the moment is 30%? It's not just the lower paid that need a place to live

Eg somebody on the dole at €254/week or €13,000 a year pays about €4k/year in rent while a doctor on €50k a year pays €15k/year.

Not at all, you'd still have the private rental or even purchasing sector. Their prices might become a little more realistic is all that would happen

But as well, why should the state not be allowed to cash in on high paid renters?

Democracy yes, but a faux democracy when governments are elected based on policies they outline in their election manifestos, but when there is no accountability for the actual purisuit or implementation of those election 'promises' then the system is not functional and ultimately a failure.

Renting for life, would be in contradiction of other government policies, the fair deal scheme for example.

The targets barely cover the amount of work permits issued annually by the very same government.

What about “thinking big”? Do we consider the possibility that the concept of “owning a house” could evolve into something as archaic as “owning a car” — yes, even in Ireland?

Purpose-built accommodation could become significantly cheaper to maintain. It would also eliminate the need for individuals to deal with OMC/MC nonsense (yes, my favourite topic). Before it becomes cheaper, it will first become much better — and only then transition into being more affordable.

Effectively, the question is: why choose renting over owning if you can afford both Currently, the balance likely leans roughly 90% (if not more) in favour of owning and 10% towards renting, though this could shift sooner than expected—just look at how quickly things have shifted in other areas, and I’m not just talking about cars.

This shift could put serious downward pressure on prices for older, non–purpose-built apartments.

The power of this trend will exceed all factors supporting the case for ownership, such as inflation hedging.

I believe this is the future, and it will define the trend for the next 10–15 years. It solves too many problems not to materialise.

There will be ups and downs, so buying an apartment right now might not be a bad idea — but watch out. No one will be bailing out people investing in rentals as a life plan.

Sell REITs — the new system likely won’t have a place for them, even if they are somewhat related, sell Des Kelly if you can — and buy luxury car manufacturers instead; people will use them to express their identity.

P.S. For the record, Bayerische Motoren Werke AG is at €80 at the time of writing.

I could be wrong about the details, but you get my drift… China is an Asian country, and there’s a mentality of admiring foreign things—just look at the popularity of Mickey Mouse and Elvis in Japan. The subject of admiration often has to come from outside. I might forget about it, but let’s see what it’s like in a year’s time. I know German cars are currently on sale, but they will return strongly to the market, as you simply can’t compare them with cheap electric alternatives. Petrol prices will cool demand for a while, though. On the flip side I’m sure there will be Dalkeys and Monties on that market too… And good luck with buying Byd in America btw…

Houses will be bought by companies and converted into rentals at whatever bottom they find - quite possibly on a simple exachange basis. There will be no more private ownership or private landlords. Regarding buyers’ age and affordability, this is exactly my point—at some stage it will become a major social issue (it arguably already is), and the government will be forced to act. Money will be redistributed through taxes, but there will be no such thing as privately owned apartments or houses.

It sounds like simple economics to me—if there’s profit to be made, why would anyone give it up? Rentals may cause some panic or even unrest, but by and large, if the situation is more or less the same for everyone, people will accept it. They’ve accepted plenty of illogical policies in the past, so this would just be a continuation of that trend. This will be catalysed by AI advances; people won’t have a choice but to accept it.

For those interested

David McWilliams and Ronan Lyons are doing 3 series podcasts on the state of the property market

Podcast 2 out today

Because they know the council will arrive with a blank chequebook to house the great unwaged.

The UK have introduced a first home scheme thats very similar to Sinn Feins pre election housing policy. If you recall FF and FG with there banking and construction lobbying buddies said it was unworkable and the banks would not lend in such circumstances. The then housing minister worked his ass off to undermine the plan. A proper minister for housing would examine all solutions and not disregard good workable solutions because of political ideology

The homes must remain affordable, the recipients must pass on the discount to market they received to the next buyer.

The main points are

A Government-backed scheme designed to help first time buyers own their own home in England.

Under the scheme, homes are offered for sale with a discount of at least 30% of market value.

Exclusively available on selected new-build homes in England, up to a maximum price of £250,000 (after the discount has been applied). In Greater London, the maximum price is £420,000 (after the discount has been applied). Local authorities may set a lower price cap.

The First Homes discount and provisions will apply to the future sales of the property. This means the same percentage discount as applied to the original sale will be passed on to the new buyer, who must first have been approved by the local authority as meeting the First Homes Eligibility Criteria. This process will apply every time the property is sold, to help other first time buyers in the future.

The scheme is promoted in England by the home builders rather than working in cahoots with the government in blocking it as is the case here in Ireland.

Remember the UK is in difficult financial position while Ireland is throwing away cash like confetti

Only 4% of new homes built in Dublin city last year were bought by private buyers.

As long as the supply to private market is this small, house prices will keep rising.

Councils and AHBs buying the largest share of new homes is driving private supply into the ground while pushing prices up of same.