US/Israel conduct airstrikes on Iran again

Would you accept the UAE taking back the three islands in the strait that they consider to be a part of the trucial states?

I'd hazard the final point is the one that Iran are willing to negotiate on and concede completely to allow innocent passage along with Trump being able to present that as a negotiating win.

It isn't, it just returns the Strait to status quo ante bellum, but given the impact Trump's actions have had on global fuel, economy and supply chains?
His coterie of idiots would spin that as a win.

The possibility of a landing on Kharg is IMHO remote and nigh on suicidal given the response it would raise.
The entire island is under Iranian fire control as well as easily being in range of FPV drone range.
Couple that with would likely be massive strikes on all GCC oil and gas infrastructure too.

Trump may try a landing somewhere east of the strait but again, even with 2 MEU (1 understrength) and the advance brigade of the 82nd Airborne, along with the SF units moved into the Gulf over the past couple of weeks.
There are currently only about 5k or 6k actual deployable combat troops available.
An example of media calling out 2500 troops in an MEU, the ratio of combat to support is approx 2.1 so 2500 in an MEU means approx 1500 combat troops maximum.

So quick sums based on the 2 MEU and 82nd advance brigade, total of 8000 troops with a direct combat element of approx 4500-5000 and another 3000 special forces.
With no armour, albeit with copious air support.
I can't see what Trump or the no doubt baffled JCS planners hope to achieve with such a force other than a large raid.
Hoping to hold any of the Strait islands in the face of Iranian fire control?
Is IMHO an act of murder against those troops he'd land there.

They may believe they can secure the enriched uranium?
They may believe they can put Pahlavi on a balcony and incite a large scale rising?
Personally?
I believe any landing in Iran is doomed and would see a response as I outlined above along with the IRGC returning the favour via small boat landings across Bahrain and the Gulf to invite further chaos.

You are talking about a land invasion, so i just moved that piece of land from an Iranian island to a contested set of islands that would actually make sense to invade.

“Do I support this war?” Good question. I am probably a lot closer to it than you are, and probably more affected in my daily life, however I don’t support wars full stop. Whether it’s Ukraine, Iran, Yemen, Sudan, or the endless religious conflicts in the Middle East, the people making the decisions are rarely the ones who suffer. Ordinary people are the ones who lose their homes, their livelihoods, and often their lives. Of course I’d like to see Ukrainians regain their land, Iranians to get real control over their own country, Sudan to stop tearing itself apart over resources, and the Middle East to move past sectarian fighting. But the reality is that war almost never produces real winners — just generations left dealing with the destruction. And looking at the 15 points being discussed for a ceasefire, very few of them seem to be about the people who are actually paying the price in any of these countries.

”carpet bomb”….. doesn't this require aircraft ?

I dont see any reason to land on Kharg island, all they have to do it put marines on the ships once they get south of the strait. Otherwise the marines will become part of a duck shoot and they will be on the receiving end.

Quoting my own earlier posts regarding interceptor missiles magazine depth to segue into RUSI's analysis of what current magazine depth available for both defensive and offensive weapons is likely to be after nearly 4 weeks of War.

The ability to both intercept Iranian incoming ballistic and cruise missiles, aswell as the precision targeting capability to hit mobile and/or remote or short notice targets such as TEL and drone launchers is rapidly diminishing.

The longer this war goes on, the more the economics favour Iran's attritional strategy.
The weapons fired to date, will honestly take the best part of a decade to replenish even with stepped up production rates.
China, Russia and even the North Koreans can only be looking on and planning how they can beat exploit the now obvious shortages and tactical failures in use of intercept systems.

And this is what tends to happen with poorly planned wars that pushes an enemy into a corner. There's no success coming out of this war and plenty of long term global instability.

@banie01 ”The longer this war goes on, the more the economics favour Iran's attritional strategy.”. Their goal is to wipe Israel off the fact of the earth, but we dont see that happening, why? For example we haven’t seen a. 3 or 4 way attack using their proxies, do you have any suggestions as to why that hasnt happened?

Philippines calling for straits to be opened as their economy heads to crisis mode - eventually countries will have no choice but to combine together to make iran open the straits - they will have no other choice

As would the US attack on infrastructure that Trump was threatening just a few days ago. Or a US invasion. But hey that's the point. Flood Europe with more refugees from endless US illegal wars in the Middle East to establish Israeli hegemony and steal resources, destabilise Europe and blame Europe for 'letting them in' Europe should be doing everything they can to get in the way of US bombing Iran if it wants to protect its own interests. It is the US that has blocked the Hormuz by illegally attacking Iran.

The claim that Iran's war aim in a war they didn't start is "To wipe Israel off the face of the Earth" rings a little hollow in the face of the actual actions taken by Iran since 1979 versus those of Israel.
Iran has made great show of its death to Israel & Death to America chants, parades and positions.
But, in reality whilst Israel is the USA's prodigy in the ME, there has never been an actual existential threat to Israel since 1973 and Egypt's crossing of the canal.
Well

Iran has sponsored terrorism and it has been a thorn in the side of Israel in its support of Hezbollah along with Palestinian resistance organisations.
But?
Libya was a similar sponsor of terrorism here at home, and indeed for the loyalists in Northern Ireland, could well have been considered an existential threat to the statelet.
particularly against the UK and the US indeed in the wake of the Berlin disco bombing when the US struck Tripoli, there was a hope on the part of the US planners that Gaddafi might be killed, but there was no direct targeting of Gaddafi.

Compare that to Israeli actions over the past 20yrs against both in and against Iran.
Israel has directly attacked an Iranian embassy, it has attacked negotiators and it thrives upon directly targeting negotiators and decision makers when talks are underway
Prior to the 12 day war, the Israelis undertook a sustained series of assassinations against scientists, academics and engineers.
Similarly the 12day war kicked off with no declaration of war and a wave of targeted assassinations.
A pattern repeated again on the 28th of February with the opening salvoes of the current war.

In 46yrs of the Islamic republic, a regime whose human rights abuses and repression I have no time for and don't support in the least.
The consistent claims of existential threat to Israel have made great copy but have to be honest, always been overblown hyperbole.
Amplified by a very grateful Likud and Settler right in Israel to present themselves as the plucky underdog resisting overwhelming odds.
The framing of the Iranian Quds day marches, flag burnings and so on reinforce the notion of a credible Iranian existential threat against Israel.

When the truth is that Israel is nuclear armed state, that has the backing of the USA with a blank cheque and in the current US regime, a president that rowed in behind Nethanyahu's 30year old "2 weeks to nuke" claims.

In the lifetime of the Iranian Islamic republic, it has never really amounted to more than an irritation to Israel and has never presented a credible existential threat.

Definitely a fair amount of suspicion it had nothing to do with Iran (and some analysts question whether it was attacked at all or if the two aggressor regimes made the whole thing up).

China is rolling around laughing, the idea that the US could ever hope to contain China with a few supercarriers is now shattered forever. They may as well park them up. The 2 they brought to Iran ran away to a safe distance. The Chinese would sink them to the bottom of the Pacific.

If this goes another 2 weeks, Israel will be a sitting duck. The much vaunted dome and David's sling will be expensive paperweights.