Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

It'll most likely be the same thing this time next year, "this can't be sustained", same talk since 2022. Something much more dramatic will have to happen for this to end

I really think we'll still be here next year unless something very unforeseeable happens (and no, Russia will not run out of soldiers and its economy will not collapse, can we please drop these fantasies?), because both Russia and Ukraine are in very difficult positions but Putin will not back down. This interview by Zelensky is very revealing, including the statement that Trump is "not on anyone's side" in the war. What a shocking thing to have to say (off the record apparently a lot of Ukrainian officials actually say they believe Trump is on Russia's side):

You should help and support my war of choice in Iran.

But I won't help you with your war in Ukraine.

That's kinda the deal being "offered" to Europeans. No surprise they rejected it.

Senator Jerry Moran (R-Kansas) expressing concern about the possibility of aid to Ukraine being diminished by the war in Iran. Livestream. He was questioning head of the US Defence Intelligence Agency (USDIA) Lt General James.

I try not to post too many twitter links but I liked this one particularly -

A prominent pro-Kremlin commentator, Ilya Remeslo, has publicly turned on Vladimir Putin, calling him a “war criminal and thief” and denouncing the war in Ukraine as a “dead end,” in a dramatic reversal from his years of staunch support.⤵️https://tvpworld.com/92156432/longtim...

Now that's a good days work.

And ended before that lol

Krasnov is seemingly about to put boots on the ground in Iran to open the straits of Hormuz. It will be Vietnam, Iraq and Afghanistan all rolled into one X 4.

If he does, Putin possibly wins Europe, not just Ukraine. Taiwan will be a cake walk for China. N Korea can take S Korea and Japan is a sitting duck.

WW3

Putin just needs to sow - with the aid of the likes of TACO, Fico, Orban and useful idiots like Farage, Meloni and Le Pen - the seeds for Europe to eat itself and break apart from within. He's banking on not needing to fire a shot based on the idea that the greatest weakness of democracies are their deference to the will of their citizens.

European people need to recognise who the real threat is here - it's TACO, Putin and Xi, not short term market-fluctuating pains like inflation, housing and cost of living. Nobody - especially not the populist liars like Farage or the right wing liars like Le Pen - has the silver bullet for solving those global issues. They will ebb away in their own time (to be replaced by new pains, ad infinitem as is the cycle of life). The last thing we need is to be torn asunder by people whose only interests are money and power for the sake of money and power.

The EU has so far managed to keep Ukraine in the fight by buying weapons and ammunition for them from the US. If the US gets involved on the ground in Iran, Europe likely won't be able to purchase more weapons from the US, for Ukraine, for years.

In an interview last month, Mr Zelensky told NBC’s Meet the Press that they would have a “low chance” of survival without US support.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/ukraine-us-military-aid-weapons-trump-zelensky-b2709249.html

The EU stepped up and bought weapons from the US for Ukraine to counter Krasnov turning off US support because EU armaments manufacture is insufficient to meet Ukraine's needs, let alone EU + Ukraine needs.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy expects European countries to allocate $1 billion every month for the purchase of American weapons for Ukraine’s defenders

The US weapons manufacture capacity and procurement has been allowed to degrade to well below their own requirements. They can't build the ships they need, they can't build the submarines they need, they can't fix the problems with the F-35, they didn't build enough F-22s… The US Navy is a mind boggling mess from top to bottom. They can't move their existing ships without running into things, they repeatedly start building ships they don't need, realise it after most of the costs are sunk and a few very expensive examples have been built then stop and go back to the drawing board. You see the consequence of that incredible dysfunction right now with them suddenly finding they don't have enough frigates, hence trying to suck in allies for So Hormuz escort duties.

In just the past few weeks they have lost 3 F-15s, a KC-135 tanker, another put out of commission for a good while and several damaged on the ground. Boeing is being fined because they can't make the KC-46, the KC-135 replacement.

Russian targeting and Iranian execution, have decimated the US and allied air defence systems across the whole region. The replacement cost for these is many billions, and the US doesn't have the capability of replacing them for several years.

https://abcnews.com/International/us-allied-radar-sites-middle-east-struck-10/story?id=131164670

Iran claims to have destroyed four THADD radars; given I have seen satellite images accounting for 3, I'm not inclined to disbelieve them. Replacing these will take years.

The Gulf States have used up several years worth of US anti air missile production capacity - even though it's recently been increased substantially, so apart from maybe two months worth of Patriot ammo Germany managed to scrounge, Ukraine's Patriot batteries will be paper weights, possibly for years.

US losses will escalate if they they go boots in. Their military industrial base has been inadequate to serving US peace time requirements, let alone war.

Russia has been held at bay, to a significant extent, by US weapons. The supply of these looks very likely to be imminently cut off. This would be a disaster for Ukraine. If Europe had the guts to get really involved, They could make up for the loss, but they clearly wont.

Krasnov is the gift that gives, and gives and gives again.

I think the fear for Europe grounded in history is Ukraine somehow being overrun (as their outside help sources are drying up and EU has its hand tied by Orban) and then Ukrainian ingenuity and industry and intelligence being turned westward

Feeling of betrayal and being stabbed in back, is a powerful emotion that Russian propaganda can exploit on those it doesn’t exterminate or deport under an occupation

And yes the Russian empire has done this exact scenario before, luckily for us both Russian empire and USSRs eastern block both fell apart under the weight of Russian contradictions and nonsense, tho it wasn’t so lucky for those living under Russian boot from Finland down to Bulgaria for so long

Let’s not downplay the sacrifices Ukrainians have made to keep the Russian barbarian hordes away from civilisation