How long until we see €2 a litre and will it push more to EV's faster?

this is the most important point of all.

100,000 new car sales annually means only around 1-in-40 adults buy a new car each year.

The overwhelming majority of transactions in the car market happen in the second hand market.

People buy what they can afford. Someone buying a new Taycan can afford €60k depreciation over the first 3 years, and probably on low annual mileage.
Their fuel savings are a VERY distant concern.

Someone who can afford a €7-10k hatchback and need to spend €2k on fuel each year for their commuter mileage, has a totally different conundrum.

And even if a 10 year old EV still has 70% battery capacity, the guy buying it will still have the same commute distance as he’s doing today and running that EV battery 80-20 every day will be difficult - ans meanwhile he’ll see new EV battery and range ever-increasing.
in the past 6 years we’ve sold almost exactly 100,000 new EVs, and imported a bunch from the UK - into a national fleet of 2.7m vehicles.

We’re at around 5% replacement, and want that to be as close to 100% as possible.

AI generated answer, but fleet sales have always skewed new car sales stats.

In 2025,

approximately 42,106 fleet vehicles

(including passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) were registered in Ireland

. This segment is a significant portion of the overall automotive market, which saw a total of 124,954 new car registrations in 2025.

KM based motortax is inevitable.

60-65% of fuel costs in running an ICE are pure taxation. No government is going to forego that massive income stream as EV takeup increases.

Increasing fuel costs also leads to more fuel laundering and misuse of agri-diesel, and the costs associated with detection and enforcement of it. KM based taxation rather than taxing the fuel type eliminates that workaround overnight.

If you can move to EV now then enjoy the next few years of relatively cheaper motoring while you still can.

That depends on the size of the battery and the mileage. An older eGolf has 24kW battery.

Saw 2.17 for a litre of diesel today. Is it this evening when the oil markets open?

So much wrong the the above… 10 year old EV!!!! EV battery only have a OEM manufacturer guarantee for 8yrs, after that battery goes then your car is a brick with no value. "But i'll just get a new battery be fine", batteries run anything from 10-25k, which nobody is going to be putting into a 8/10 year old car. Also think guarantee only applies to original owner, second hand….. again you're on your own. In short nobody is going to be buying 10 yr old EV's, plus car dealers wont stock them because over 8 yrs they're ticking time bombs.

100,000 of new vehicles into a 2.7 million Irish car fleet, still a novelty and a fad that might never catch on.

We at 5% replacement, and want to be a 100%!!! Why???!!!! who wants ??? not the Irish motorist for sure.

Hybrids are WWWaaaayyyy better than EV only, much more flexible and user friendly. There will probably always be a general mix of ICE, Diesel, Hybrids and EV plus maybe Hydrogen in the car fleet. People don't want to be railroaded into a EV only future whether they like it or not. This has always been the Greens fantasy.

youre agreeing with me, albeit you’ve not realised that I’m v v sceptical of EV adoption targets for the national fleet - I’m just far less hyperbolic about it 🙄🙄

Someone buying a 10yr old used car is not early adopter. EVs have been on the roads for 15yrs. A 10 yr old EV is 2nd generation EV.

Diesel has breached the €2 mark in most places I've seen this morning, Kerosene most recently €898.98 for a 500L delivery. I saw a video over the weekend explaining that the sudden jump in prices is actually because we have a direct pipeline from a well in Tehran that goes under the rest of the European continent and the Irish sea, bypassing every other country along the way to a refinery in Waterford.

The video seemed like a complete piss-take but it was also the only logical reasoning because obviously the oil companies aren't profiteering

Rationing could become a bigger issue than price for fuel in the coming weeks as stocks dwindle.

won't be an issue.

Absolutely zero issue on petrol - almost an excess of refining capacity. No supply issue with oil - other countries will pump out more.

We're coming into summer, so less demand for kerosene where the supply contraints are as about 30% of Europe's kero was coming from middle eastern refineries and about 20% of diesel

Supply lines for indian refined diesel/jet fuel/kero now running. European refiners now working 24/7 (and charging a hefty premium too - currently about 40c of the diesel pump price is related to refining cost -usually its about 15c-20c)

Price will stay elevated, but won't be going too much higher with petrol settling about €2 and diesel circa €2.30.

Please tell me u didn't " see the video on Facebook????!!!!" 🤨🙄🙃🤡check videos from a reliable Media organisation, from 2 sources …or its total BS!!!!!!. hint There's no pipeline that goes direct from Tehran (Iran) to Waterford, that goes under all of mainland Europe and supplies (just) Waterford in Ireland.🤔🤐🙄😦🤡 Please try to apply some critical thought before making statements and accepting them as facts… they are not.