Dublin GAA Discussion Thread: Mod Note - No 'Dublin Dominance' chat allowed!

The timing of the Armagh match is almost ideal. Surely should have confidence after that last win. Because there is something on the match for both sides. I am expecting a championship type of game. Both teams going full pelt. Back of my mind I feel that Armagh have too much power and pace for Dublin. But if Dublin start well maybe momentum like the Roscommon game could carry the result.

I am still doubtful though because the game in the Hyde was very odd in that first half. But at least there is a chance v Galway in Salthill. If the result is not obtained v Armagh at the weekend. However, 6 points for survival might not be enough.

The scoring difference from Roscommon to Armagh on the table looks much tighter than I thought it was.

The Tiebreaker Rules

• If two teams finish level on points: The tie is decided by the result of the match between those two teams (Head-to-Head).
• If three or more teams finish level on points: The ranking is decided by Overall Scoring Difference (total points for minus total points against).
• If scoring difference is also equal: The team with the Highest Total Score For is ranked higher.
• Subsequent deciders: If still equal, Highest Total Goals For is used, followed by a play-off.

Important Note: A "mini-league" or "head-to-head-to-head" result is only used if the teams were involved in a game that was not played due to a disqualification or walkover. In a standard season like 2026, a three-way tie reverts immediately to overall scoring difference.

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I looked into the permutations -

The unlikely scenario that Monaghan win v Galway -

If Monaghan manage to get a shock with Galway the league gets very tight - unlikely but possible

If Monaghan defeat Galway in Round 6, the relegation battle becomes significantly more volatile. This result would move Monaghan to 2 points and keep Galway on 4 points heading into the final round.

Because Monaghan has a severely inferior scoring difference (-55), their only realistic path to survival is through a two-way head-to-head tiebreaker.

Standings if Monaghan wins (Assuming other Round 6 results)

• Roscommon: 6 points (Plays Donegal in Round 6)
• Dublin: 4 or 5 or 6 points (Plays Armagh in Round 6)
• Galway: 4 points (After losing to Monaghan)
• Armagh: 2 or 3 or 4 points (Plays Dublin in Round 6)
• Monaghan: 2 points (After beating Galway)

The "Monaghan Escape" Permutation

For Monaghan to stay in Division 1 after beating Galway, they must also beat Donegal in Round 7. This would bring them to 4 points. They would then need the following to happen:

• Galway loses to Dublin: This leaves Galway on 4 points.
• Armagh fails to reach 4 points: Armagh would need to lose to Dublin and lose or draw against Kerry.
• Result: Monaghan and Galway finish tied on 4 points. Because Monaghan won the head-to-head match in Round 6, Monaghan would stay up and Galway would be relegated.

The Galway Relegation Danger

If Galway loses to Monaghan, their final match against Dublin in Salthill becomes a "must-not-lose" fixture.

• If Galway loses to both Monaghan and Dublin: They stay on 4 points. They are relegated if Monaghan beats Donegal (on head-to-head) or if Armagh reaches 4 points (as Armagh has a better scoring difference).
• If Galway draws with Dublin: They move to 5 points. This would guarantee safety regardless of Monaghan's results, as Monaghan can only reach a maximum of 4 points.

The Three-Way Tie Scenario (Scoring Difference)

If Monaghan beats Galway and Donegal, and Armagh beats Kerry, there is a high chance of multiple teams finishing on 4 points.

• If Monaghan, Galway, and Armagh all finish on 4 points, the head-to-head results are ignored. The tiebreaker becomes overall scoring difference.
• Current Scoring Differences: Armagh (+3), Galway (-3), Monaghan (-55).
• In this three-way tie, Monaghan’s -55 deficit is almost impossible to overturn. Even with two wins, they would likely remain bottom and be relegated along with the team with the next worst scoring difference.

Summary of Requirements for Safety

• Galway: Needs at least a draw against Dublin in Round 7 to be certain of safety if they lose to Monaghan.
• Monaghan: Must beat both Galway and Donegal and hope Galway loses to Dublin to trigger a two-way head-to-head tiebreaker.
• Armagh: Needs to avoid a heavy defeat to Dublin and ideally pick up a win against Kerry to ensure they stay ahead of Galway and Monaghan on scoring difference.

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The more likely scenario Monaghan lose v Galway -

Based the premise that Galway defeats Monaghan in Round 6, here is the revised outlook for the relegation battle.

Current Points Total (Assuming Galway beat Monaghan)

• Roscommon: 6 points (with two matches remaining)
• Galway: 6 points (after beating Monaghan)
• Dublin: 4 points (with matches against Armagh and Galway remaining)
• Armagh: 2 points (with matches against Dublin and Kerry remaining)
• Monaghan: 0 points (Confirmed for relegation if they lose to Galway)

If Dublin beats Armagh in Round 6

If Dublin wins this match, the relegation results are decided before the final day.

• Dublin moves to 6 points.
• Armagh remains on 2 points. With only one match left, the maximum points Armagh can achieve is 4.
• Relegation Result: Armagh and Monaghan are relegated. The final match between Galway and Dublin becomes a dead rubber for league standings only.

If Armagh beats Dublin in Round 6

This scenario creates a high-stakes final round where three or four teams could finish on 6 points.

• Armagh moves to 4 points.
• Dublin stays on 4 points.
• Galway is on 6 points.
• Round 7 Requirements: Armagh must beat Kerry to reach 6 points. Dublin must beat Galway to reach 6 points.

The Survival Tiebreaker (The 6-Point Scramble)

If Roscommon fails to pick up any more points and Armagh, Dublin, and Galway all finish on 6 points, the tiebreakers will decide who stays up.

• Scoring Difference: If three or more teams are tied on points, the head-to-head results are discarded, and the team with the worst overall scoring difference is relegated.
• Current Rankings :
  1. Armagh: +3
  2. Dublin: 0
  3. Roscommon: -2
  4. Galway: -3

Galway’s scoring difference is currently the lowest among these four teams. However, a win over Monaghan provides a significant opportunity to improve this, as Monaghan has the leakiest defence in the division with a -55 scoring difference.

Summary of Survival Paths

• Galway: Beating Monaghan effectively secures safety if Dublin also beats Armagh. If Armagh wins that game, Galway still needs a result against Dublin in Salthill to avoid a scoring difference lottery.
• Dublin: Their match against Armagh is a "must-not-lose" fixture. A defeat puts them in a position where they must beat Galway away to have any chance of staying up.
• Armagh: They must win both remaining matches (Dublin and Kerry) and hope their superior scoring difference carries them through a 6-point tiebreaker.

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No idea how to call the Armagh match, I keep changing my mind.

2 freebies for laters if anyone wants them send me your email

NOW GONE

I Don’t know what happened Scully . But so far playing as well as he did in The Hyde. Great for Brennan that his late change to lineup McGarry for Kilkenny justified itself early.

Armagh haven’t done much besides that. They seem like a shadow what they were. Surprised how laboured they look.

Armagh have it now

Like the first goal, slicing Dublin apart.

Awful second half from us we had no answer when Armagh smelt blood ,kickouts were poor but so many times none of our players showed for him .POCB for the size of him gets knocked off the ball so easy and couldn't catch the ball much either really poor from him .Overall we are a very average team and hard to see us making much impact in the championship.

It was like watching two games/teams last night. As said I’ve never seen a second half start like that before and probably never see it again. I thought watching first half we were getting the group working as a team again. Turning balls over by the defence. Scoring up front. Then I assume handbags out. Second half we just lost control of the game and couldn’t get back. There was plenty of Armagh supporters around me and they were all right behind the team and giving them a reason to keep fighting. Galway isn’t the most appealing places due to location wise at the best of times but with relegation is making it worse.

Why was Duran taken off during first half? Then came back on

Second half started with a 13m free because of dissent by Armagh manager at HT.

It can obviously happen at any time but if prior to the start of a half, then the half starts with a free

Was brought in as part of the new rules last year.

Exactly what I thought it was like the mid 00’s all over again . Can look great but then as soon as the pressure is put on by the opposition the game turns.

But this time around there are lads on the pitch with multiple AI medals who you would think have the cop on to slow the game down. Game management. Even go down “injured” etc . None of that happened. It just carried on. I am still annoyed!

Disappointing to lose a crucial league game after enjoying such a big lead. It was ominous as Armagh got closer and the last goal was a killer. Felt that Kilkenny should have entered the fray sooner in the second half, he is a leader. It didn’t look great Doran coming on again after being off. McMorrow tried to catch an Armagh player in the last quarter but he was too fast which is no shame after trying when you are physically done. Was surprised how slack Armagh were in the first half but then the sting in the tail was the last 20 minutes. Sometimes an elite team who have a poor first half like Armagh, will bounce back. Poor sluggish first halves can sometimes be attributed to whatever they were doing at their last training session if it was too heavy and heavy sessions can be deliberately planned also to get a deep response in the next game. Fitness conditioning should ideally have guys able to finish strongly rather than play best earlier in a game. Dublin need to become more ruthless, it was worrying how many goals O’Sullivan prevented.
Where has Tom Lahiff gone?
Staring relegation in the face now, having to beat Galway in Salthill now is difficult with Galway also needing a win but still possible. A win last night would have been ideal.
Ger Brennans league tenure not great so far. His public outing of unnamed senior players seemed inappropriate to me. Dublin had a fairytale Div 2 recovery and AI win the last time and maybe Div 2 is what is needed to rebuild if a last gap escape doesn’t happen next week.

Fair point maybe in regards to last night you would think it should help but obviously as it played out it didn't. My main point was there seems to be an opinion among quite a few supporters that when a few of the injured lads are back and fit that we are not going to be too far away ,personally I find that very optimistic as most of the more experienced players are proberly over their peak some not helped by injuries of course .I don't see Con shooting out the lights as some do but would love to be wrong of course .