Will ‘the monk’ do it this time 🤔

Zero chance in a by-election

He is not a dodgy criminal, he is a cleanskin. He is a criminal within the law.

By-elections are different animals - the quota is 50% of the valid vote +1. Dublin Central is a 4 seater - in the general election the quota was 25% +1 - 6551 votes - Gerry Hutch got 5321, Marie Sherlock, who got the seat had 6102 - so neither reached the quota but Sherlock had a good few more votes than Hutch.

STV voting boils down to your core vote plus the votes that you get from people who really would have liked someone else but find you the least unacceptable remaining candidate. If you're a 'marmite' candidate you're going to narrow the electorate that will find you 'least unacceptable'.

In by-elections it's not unusual to meet the quota - Bacik didn't in 2021, none of the successful candidates in 2019 did either - however they will generally be pretty close. Hutch ultimately had about 16.5% of the electorate and started from 9.5% of the electorate. Sherlock started with 7.5% and ended up with 19% of the votes. In sheer numbers Hutch gained 2200 transfers and Sherlock gained 3600.

While Hutch might have a chance in a General Election - I don't think he has a hope here - he would have to get a high number of transfers from a big hitter being eliminated - his biggest transfer in the GE was from the elimination of Malachy Steenson. When you look at the possible eliminated candidates FF, FG, SF, Lab, SD, Green - they all gave him less than 100 transfers in the GE - their transfers will end up staying in that group and ultimately elect one of them - that group got about 70% of the first preferences in the GE.

If he's playing the long game, it might shore up plenty of support in the next election. Getting people onto the register, who wouldn't otherwise have voted at all, is a really good thing. He also reacted very well to not winning the last time, behaved decently and respectfully throughout the campaign and the count. He can't win this time, for reasons already stated, but I would say he at least has an excellent chance of winning either a Dáil seat in the next general election, or a council seat in the next local elections.

Gerry Hutch? Yeah followed him for years but in his time he is still standing while the Westies and Kinnahans have come and are all nearly gone. Similar question to how come Gerry Adams and most of Sinn Fein lasted so long in leadership roles, while in normal roles leaders last about 8 years?

He said you don't need to be registered to be called for jury duty ?.Aren't jurors called from the register .?

He said government want to keep people "Igorant ". Sounds very bad. He really needs to learn to speak properly .

I wonder will people feel an obligation to register ??

You have pretty much hit the nail on the head with that post.

By-elections are curious. Governments in Ireland rarely win them. That is not a surprise.

During office, few governments retain more than 50% support, usually with it hovering around 40%. As a by-election requires 50%, the least offensive opposition candidate who can attract support from other opposition candidates has the best chance. You don't see many extreme left from PBP winning by-elections and you are unlikely to see extreme right like Hutch win it.

Some of the heat appears to have been taken out of the immigration issue which also suggests that is unlikely to get a fair wind behind him. In a low turnout, his ceiling is 20-25%, not enough to be in the final reckoning.

Very poor cringe speaking in the video where he has a stripe top. Stumbling through it, should write it down and put it behind camera so he could read.

Don't care and straight away unfollows thread as if I ever did follow this sh1te

I hate this thing of trying to turn criminals into celebrities, something very English about it.