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Inclement weather watch Thurs 12th / Fri 13th March 2026

  • 08-03-2026 09:12PM
    #1
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,392 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    Was deliberating over giving the end of the week its own thread primarily due to the combination of weather in the form of high rainfall totals over a short period of time ( possibly giving flooding in places ), strong winds which look in the yellow warning level for the most part, some high level yellow possible in parts but will see how the charts pan out and following very blustery showers of rain, hail, sleet and snow with thunderstorms possible in the unstable airmass. Why not, a good chance to study the models performance and see how this develops, early days I know but no harm keep a focus on it for those that want to participate in the discussion.

    ———————————————————-

    Thurs and Fri showing inclement weather for a number of runs now from various models, initially from a quick moving frontal passage moving from W to E accompanied by high winds in parts and heavy rain followed by big blustery showers of hail and thunderstorms possible along with sleet and possibility of transient wet snow for a time later Thurs evening /night into Friday morning although could get washed away fairly quickly lower down giving slushy conditions during Friday morning in parts.

    All in all could be an impactful couple of days with difficult driving conditions, cold temperatures , close to frost or icy conditions in sheltered places during the nights /early morning and dare I say a possibility of lying snow for a time early Friday in parts of Northern counties but keeping an eye on Atlantic coastal counties also. Bound to be a good few yellow warnings but with the combined weather conditions , it has the look of a a couple of days needing attention when out and about driving and those working outdoors.

    The fast jet initially over us helping drive those strong winds Thurs into Fri and then moving more South and helping steer in that cold unstable airmass over us later Thurs into Fri. When the Jet is positioned like that I reckon it can bring strong winds and those big convective showers well inland, not only on the coasts.

    Getting to that time of the year when fairly active thunderstorms can develop in such a set up and often see them barrel into the coasts and move inland a bit, sometimes leaving a trail of damage in its wake. Similar weather a few years ago saw our phone connection getting blown off the wall here in Kerry and it left bad damage to electrical equipment in neighboring villages. Also investigated one such storm a few years ago that developed near the coast and moved rapidly inland over Ballyduff that showed evidence 0f being a possible tornado leaving a trail of damage across homes, local church and shops with one car being written off. This kind of set up can give locally very strong blustery downdraught winds.

    So a change in the weather after a fairly prolonged benign spell for many away from the floods in the E and SE .

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,528 ✭✭✭emo72


    Thursday night temperatures dropping, possible snow. Exciting times.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,427 ✭✭✭OldRio


    I can think of other words rather than exciting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,070 ✭✭✭✭NIMAN


    Yeah its terribly exciting when a lot of folk cant afford to heat their homes now with the spike in prices.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    The way this winter has gone, you'd be as well off doing a thread for the days without inclement weather.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,756 ✭✭✭DayInTheBog


    We had 3 days without rain...have you forgotten where you live🤣☔

    As for @emo72. ....feic off with your snow. I'm tired the number of people I met today who can't afford to put oil in their tank.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    What is it here with finding excitement in snow and storms? Disruption for many, danger for some, and discomfort for most. The last thing people need, when fuel is expensive, is inclement weather.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 710 ✭✭✭ingalway


    Driving

    Post edited by ingalway on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 422 ✭✭ascophyllum


    I agree, there is no doubt that talking about it and finding excitement in it makes the weather worse. I cant stand soccer and the people in the soccer forum wont stop talking about it - its crazy.

    At the risk of making the weather worse, I have a question, is it the same trough that is causing severe weather in the midwest US tomorrow that is increasing the risk of convective weather Thurs night for us?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    I can tell you exactly how it will be. I also have Wednesday nights Lotto numbers.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,030 ✭✭✭✭Jim_Hodge


    Your facetious reply has nothing to do with what you quoted. It suits the narrative but is not relevant to what I said. I was referring to somebody thinking poor weather prospects were exciting. Never was it inferred that their rapture in poor weather would make it worse, nor indeed influence it whatsoever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭z80CPU
    Darth 8-bit


    Add me who can't afford to put oil in my central heating tank. The system is also broken.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 422 ✭✭ascophyllum


    I apologise, I shall seek to quench my interest and fascination in severe weather events. Deep in my subconscious, I shall probably find thunderstorms, snowstorms etc. exciting however I shall train my conscious to actively ignore and refrain from discussing them lest the discussions be interpreted as showing glee or excitement. I have unsubscribed from Reed Timmer.

    Some of the models do show very high CAPE for Thurs night into Friday morning however I must contain myself.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,392 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    At the moment looking rather windy over the Northern half of the country later Weds night into Thurs morning, a blustery day Thurs and possibly getting quite windy in the Southern half later Thurs, spells of windy weather through Fri night into Fri in places but models still getting a handle on it. Currently the stronger winds look like getting into the yellow warning level in my opinion.

    Rainfall amounts fairly high up to Fri especially along the Western half of the country more so towards the coastal counties with Thurs looking like the wettest day. Later Thurs into Fri the very cold airmass moves across Ireland with the 528dam line well South across the Atlantic and in over parts of Ireland. The unstable active atmosphere introducing many showers of rain , sleet, hail and snow with thunderstorms a possibility especially later Thurs into Fri more so towards Atlantic coastal counties.

    Models predicting snow showers which might accumulated later Thurs night into Fri morning but temps not staying cold enough for much to settle into Fri so may be a slushy wet mix on the roads for a time, as always any falling on higher ground might last longer. Could be some heavy hail showers also making local conditions tricky at times. Some of the wintry precipitation may be accompanied by windy conditions adding to difficult visibility and slippery roads.

    Showers convective in nature so might produce heavy local blustery precipitation .

    Temperatures falling quickly from the West Thurs afternoon as it gets increasingly wintry , initially maybe up to around 12C but getting down to low single digits by nightfall, maybe as low as 3C or 4C , some frost in sheltered areas, cold day on Fri especially feeling cold / raw in the wind with frost overnight into Sat morning in some areas.

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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,392 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Yeah watching the different parameters for convection, cape looks best coming in from the West, very cold uppers, high lapse rates, lots of Low level shear over Ireland. Could be a noisy night into the morning along coastal counites with many showers of hail, heavy blustery showers and the odd thunderstorm.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,127 ✭✭✭Robwindstorm


    Some beefy looking snow showers starting to show on the UK radar. They start after dark in the NW and become fairly widespread into the early hours of Friday with a more organised band moving from north connaught across Ulster. It could make for a tricky commute on Friday morning even if not lasting too long on the ground. At this time of year under these conditions there's always scope for a localised extreme event. Good call Meteorite as always 👏



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,105 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    sneachta https://www.thejournal.ie/weather-warning-snow-6-6980132-Mar2026/

    ugh, that word 'possibility'

    a return of colder conditions, with the possibility of snow from Thursday night when temperatures dip to 0 to 4 degrees.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,772 ✭✭✭pauldry


    A wet wintry mix with winds coming in off the Atlantic. Slushmuck n windchill. Nothing more.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    It's a bit early but it's fierce windy here in Athlone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,484 ✭✭✭z80CPU
    Darth 8-bit


    Really blustery here in West Sligo since 5. My clothesline washing is destroyed.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6 mayday69


    Any predictions as to what level of warning it might be? Oil just ran out and can't afford to get any, so not great timing for a snow storm! Might have to contemplate decamping to someone with a fire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    ECM difference between predicted total snow falling and accumulating.

    9am Friday morning

    image.png IMG_6727.jpeg IMG_6728.jpeg


    Past that shows a little more falling out to Monday

    image.png

    Also a wind warning for Thursday

    Status Yellow - Wind warning for Ireland

    Met Éireann Weather Warning

    Strong and gusty southwesterly winds.

    Potential Impacts:
    • Difficult travelling conditions
    • Debris or loose objects displaced
    • Some fallen branches or trees

    Valid: 00:00 Thursday 12/03/2026 to 18:00 Thursday 12/03/2026

    Wettest in NW, driest in SE

    IMG_6729.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,558 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    Its a nationwide yellow wind warning from Thursday morning.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 13,392 Mod ✭✭✭✭Meteorite58


    Cold fronts , troughs and unstable airmass spreading in from the Atlantic over Ireland later Weds through Thurs becoming increasingly cold later Thurs into Fri as the 528dam line moves over the entirety of Ireland with wintry showers of rain, sleet, snow and hail with possible thunderstorms .

    I see above Met Eireann giving a country wide yellow warning over Ireland, probably wise as the winds sweep across the country beginning in the NW and could get fairly strong as the day progresses for a time. Very hard to accurately predict timing at this stage and some areas may lull for a time . The very nature of the convective showers also giving locally strong blustery and squally downdraughts.

    24hr rainfall accumulations don't seem to be too bad for now, widespread 10 to 15mm, touching around 20mm in places along Atlantic coastal counties especially over higher terrain, some models showing Donegal getting high precipitation totals.

    Snowfall looking heaviest atm in the NW/ N but the W could also get a bit of a covering in places for a time as could areas down along the Atlantic Seaboard but amounts small but could be nuisance to transport early Fri morning as the showers could be blustery making driving a bit difficult. Very noticeable windchill Fri.

    Very big seas also developing and over the weekend also.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,558 ✭✭✭✭billyhead


    Should this not be classified as a storm?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,324 ✭✭✭✭LambshankRedemption




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭pureza


    @Meteorite58 Im actually flying DUB KIR on Thursday afternoon down to your part of the world for the w/end (*shudder* at the cross winds) and some brave souls plan a hike up to the top of mt Brandon on Friday morning,they’re experienced hikers,what do you think they should expect? 😱



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,971 ✭✭✭sparrowcar




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,776 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    Thursday night: Cold with scattered blustery wintry showers, mainly affecting Atlantic counties. Some of the showers will be heavy with isolated thunderstorms. Some lying snow is possible across higher ground and parts of the northwest. Lowest temperatures of 0 to 4 degrees in fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly wind.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,876 ✭✭✭pureza


    Well to be fair,one of them is a volunteer on the Kerry mountain rescue team,so they will know the route well and whether to go or not depending on the conditions Friday morning

    They’ve been up there in snow before but it’s going to be a new experience for one or 2 of them alright

    I decided not to do the hike



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