Home heating oil prices

100 percent. Another layer or two required.

Further to what I posted barely two hours ago:

Price with my local suppliers for 300 litres has now jumped back up. Was €510 earlier today, but €565 now.

Theres a couple of issues in play according to a colleague of mine who used to work at a suppleir (but since left)

The first was early in the week they simply were probably receiving orders at a rate faster than they could reliably process. For a lot of suppliers, there is apparently still a degree of manual processing that has to follow after an online order is received.

Basically they needed time to sort the existing orders so they could be fulfilled and ensure customers were getting deliveries. By taking telephone orders they could manage the rate new orders.

The second related to the market being in a state of "price discovery" as he put it. If a supplier takes an online order at €700 at 9am, but the port raiises the price to €900 by 11 oclock, the supplier would lose money on every litre delivered. It was simply chaotic and the websites automated pricing probably couldnt keep up.

About the providers pages going down I wrote something yesterday about (https://oilcomparator.ie/blog/heating-oil-prices-crisis-march-2026), but it is already outdated, right now very few providers allow to check their prices online.

They have closed their API or stop updating them, which breaks any comparison we try to make.

I have questions on why this happen, how often the providers stock in? why CRU does not check this? Prices going up in some cases more than 100% in a couple of weeks sounds a bit unfair, war or no war, it seems quite unfair with prices going up twice o three times per day.

Firstly, diesel prices will rise to €2.10-€2.20 in the next week or so. If you buy petrol, price rises will be much much smaller and likely top out under €1.90.

but on the post above, when you use ai for a comment, you will find it very inaccurate as ai doesn't understand reality.

Fuel USERS will buy forward contracts as a hedge against pricing. EG Airlines, Major transport companies, shipping companies, electricity generators etc. This allows them price their products in advance to their customer who would typically agree 3 - 12 month fixes.

Fuel distributors to a consumer seller like a home heating distributor or a fuel station would be committing commercial suicide if they followed that model as oil and refining prices fluctuate so much - up and down. Imaginw forward buying mid summer when you think prices would be at a low point and - oil was at $72 and refining margins at $30 last July, so $102 a barrel, only to find that in Oct oil is at $61 and refining is at $22 - you are losing a fortune! But you ride it out for 6 months - however in January you find oil is back at $60, the dollar has gone to $1.19 and refinery margins are under $20.

The liquidators is at your door and you have gone bust.

Fuel distributors all over Europe buy at spot pricing determined by refineries under the Platts trading system in the Netherlands. Makes no difference whether it comes from a refinery in Cork or a refinery in Finland.

Demand for diesel/kero has increased a little - but the problem is about 30% of refined diesel/kero/jet fuel for Europe comes from refineries in the Middle East. That supply was cut off last Saturday and has not returned.

Petrol however, is primarily refined in Europe and there is no spike in demand and refining margins have not increased - if anything, they've dropped a little. So petrol rises will only be to the level of the oil price rise - about 10c-12c at the pumps.

For those using diesel, you are in for a shock next week. As I said in a post last Saturday, price rises at pumps this week reflect rises in oil and refining margins LAST WEEK!!!

The turmoil caused by trump's ridiculous war that was totally unnecessary will see diesel prices rise to €2.10-€2.20 next week as the diesel refining margins have gone over $50 - in per litre terms, the combination of the $13 oil price increase and the $24 increasing in refining margins since Monday, equates to 20c + vat at the pumps.

biggest issue is the main diesel refineries in the middle east can't get their diesel & jet fuel out. That accounts for 30% of consumption, so even without a single litre of extra demand, it had created a massive shortage and European refineries have jacked up their prices to make enormous profits.

As in my posts above - there no refining price jump on petrol, just the oil price rise, so those driving petrol cars won't see massive jumps at the pumps like diesel.

Upcoming Certa fuel card rates for road diesel have been posted by @vickers209 in the motors fuel thread, from tomorrow going up well above €2 per L and HVO is gone even higher up around €2.35-2.40 per L.

Posted this on another thread - usually wouldn't double post, but in this instance I will.

And unless you really need kerosene, just don't bother. Electric heaters work out cheaper!

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Not good news.

Oil market has reopened - both Brent and Wti are approaching $110 - this is a bloodbath.

Market is showing that refineries will be pricing road diesel close to $1300 a ton (1000 litres) - about €1.18 a litre when the distillate markets open in the morning.

That's a new record.

Add 72c taxes/Nora, 16c retail and distribution and vat.

Diesel is heading to €2.50 a litre this week.

All because of trump

The "good" news is fuel will jump by over 50% at US fuel stations this week, diesel, which US farmers depend on will be double last week's price in the US. Trump is not going to like that and something will change.

Btw, prices are set by refineries. Fuel importers have no say in the matter and despite what some "pub talk" people say, only 7-10 days "normal" supply is held in ports. With the level of fuel being purchased at present, that's likely 3-4 days max.

I'd ordered 500l at 529 last Sunday, still not delivered. Was going to ring and cancel in the morning until I looked at this thread. I think I'll give them a few more days 🤣

AI thinks Kerosene going to jump up again tomorrow with oil hitting 110$

• Current Baseline (Based on Friday's $92.69 oil): €859 for 500 litres.

• The 18.6% Crude Spike Applied to Kerosene: If local distributors apply a direct proportional hike based on the global market panic, you are looking at an increase of roughly €150 to €170 on a 500-litre fill.

• Projected 500 Litre Price: Expect quotes to break the €1,000 to €1,030 barrier by tomorrow morning as suppliers update their boards.

• Projected 1,000 Litre Price: Since 1,000 litres is currently sitting around €1,718 for you, an 18% surge will almost certainly push the price well over €2,000.

certa this morning