Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

On a minor tangent, it's voting day here in Texas. I am likely to try a different polling station this time, as I'm heading an unusual direction as I'm running my errands (I can vote at any of a couple hundred polling sites in the county, depending on where I am at the time and how long the lines might be. Not that I expect them to be long today).

As an independent, I also get to choose which primary I'm going to vote in. Realistically, I'm in a somewhat more red part of the state (but my current federal House representative is a moderate Republican), so I can either vote for my preferred challenger to whoever is going to be the 'favourite' in November, or I can vote to try to have more influence on who that favourite actually will be. I do miss California's two-round/jungle primary voting system.

Sample ballots here:

https://home.bexar.org/electionsresources/ballots/PrimaryRep_498.pdf

https://home.bexar.org/electionsresources/ballots/PrimaryDem_498.pdf

The Senate seat is a fascinating race. The current incumbent is Cornyn, a reliable conservative with a long track record in congress (and age to match), though not really the MAGA camp like some. He is facing a massive challenge in the form of Ken Paxton. For those who don't pay attention to TX state politics, Paxton is the current Attorney General, and is one of the most right-wing folks out there. He developed the anti-abortion 'private lawsuit' system we have now. He's so far out from the party, he even got impeached by the Republican-dominated state government a couple years ago… but still handily won re-election. Polling has Paxton currently with a slight lead. There is a third candidate in the form of Wesley Hunt, but he's only polling at about 2/3 of the other two. There are a bunch of also-rans on the ballot, most of whom I've never heard of.

The GOP establishment dollars for the Senate primary are going to support Crockett and Cronyn.

Jasmine Crockett, a current Congressional representative for Dallas is in a tight race herself, against James Talarico, currently a state house representative for the North Austin area. She had been the favourite until recently, just received the Kamala Harris endorsement, but recent polling has Talarico caught up, if not slightly leading. Crockett is definitely on the liberal side of the camp with base and establishment support, but Talarico is a "progressive Christian", with significant financial backing. He's the guy who Colbert interviewed, CBS wouldn't air, and got the interview released on youtube instead. His actual policy positions don't seem far different to Crockett's in most cases (He is not as anti-gun, which is a not insignificant factor in Texas as Beto discovered), but I'm not sure how much attention folks pay to the details.

The Republicans would vastly prefer to go up against Crockett. They estimate that either Cornyn or Paxton would beat her. Talarico is a different prospect. They think Cronyn would be in for a fight, whilst Paxton has an excellent chance of losing to him. Hence the Republicans are campaigning (obviously not quite as openly) for Crockett to win the primary. The fact that this is known may also be contributing to Talarico's rise, though it may not be sufficient to counter the effects of Crockett support.*

Given the amount of electioneering I've seen for the Democrat candidates for the federal House in my district, I suspect they have little hope of winning. It's a matter of which Republican is going to win. The incumbent, Gonzales, was reasonably safe until an affair scandal hit a couple weeks ago. He has the Trump endorsement, but the lead opponent, Herrera (the Guntuber) is distinctly more conservative, and is doing better in the polls than he was last time around he fought Gonzales. The Republicans are also suffering from a split ballot: The other candidates for the position, Barton and Conseco are also not as conservative as Herrera… and thus may pull votes from Gonzales.

There is a list of names up for Governor, though I doubt Abbott is at risk. The Attorney General race, however, is more interesting. Some may say that anyone would be an improvement over Ken Paxton, but I see Chip Roy's name on there. He's about as MAGA as they come, currently a congressional representative.

Downballot, I have to do a quick bit of research. I haven't looked into judges or whatever.

The Primaries are also an opportunity for the parties to poll voters for policy positions. Most of the Republican ones are typically Republican, though I do note a poll on establishing term limits on all elected officials. I see nothing unexpected on the Democrat side.

*I can't help but think of a similarity at the Presidential level in two years. Democrats and liberals may well want folks like Newsom to run, but I suspect Republicans would be more afraid of less… base-supported opposition.

I have never had any issues with identification in the polls here. I show up, hand over my ID (Normally one of my State IDs, as it's easier for the computer system than my federal one), and am handed a ballot within 60 seconds. I don't recall ever having voted in uniform, I do not believe there is a prohibition on it and can't imagine why there would be an issue were I to try.

I have also never seen a 'watchdog' or 'poll monitor' or whatever, though to be fair, I've never thought to keep an eye out for any.

I'm a bit of a traditionalist. I always go to the polling site on voting day. Even when I had a mail-in ballot in California, I'd fill it out at home at the last minute, then drive in and hand-deliver it.

Anyway, off on my errands now. As a conversational aide, the leaves fall from the trees in spring around here, so my pool filters get clogged easily.