Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

Rhetorical question I presume 😁

Most of the countries in the ME are either outgrowths of colonial shenanigans by France or Britain, ore used to be their protectorates. Syria, Lebanon, Jordan Iraq and Saudi Arabia were all created in the aftermath of WW1 when Paris and London carved up the carcass of the Ottoman Empire. they were created at the drawing room table with little regard as to the people that were actually living there. As a result, the people living in places like Syria, Jordan, Lebanon or Iraq often felt more loyalty to their clan than they did to the central government of their country, which led to massive internal conflicts the moment the central government looked like it might loosen it's grip. We've seen that in Syria, Lebanon, and Iraq already. Jordan seems to be keeping it together pretty well for the moment, but it remains to be seen whether it can survive the death of the current king, especially since his wife, Queen Rania, is Palestinian and as such gives the monarchy quite a bit of influence in the Palestinian refugee community in Jordan.

Saudi Arabia is somewhat different in that they have fewer internal ethnic fault lines than the other countries. The role of the house of Saud in the Arab rebellion, its unbroken rule for over a century at this point, and the fact that Islam's holiest sites are all in Saudi territory all provide a unifying element that isn't present in many of the other countries in the region. Having said that, Saudi Arabia is far more theocratic than any other country in the region, its political culture is pretty much non-existent, and the royal family has managed to keep control of the country primarily by splashing its oil cash onto the population, combined with a ruthless approach to internal dissent. The biggest threat for Saudi Arabia is running out of oil, since its economy is dependent on it. When the oil goes, it's anyone's guess as to what happens to Saudi Arabia but chances are, it's going to be bloody.

Ironically, the two countries least likely to tear themselves apart are Israel and Iran. Israel is effectively a western political and social system that has been grafted onto the eastern shores of the Mediterranean, so it doesn't have much, if anything, in common with its neighbours.

Iran is another matter again. The country has existed as a unit in some way, shape or form since antiquity. It was never colonised and has a clearly defined national identity going back centuries. Whilst there are ethnic minorities present in Iran that have at times tried to break away from the country, from what I can see, these ethnic fault lines are nowhere near as severe as in many of the other countries in the region. That doesn't mean that there won't be a power struggle when/if the Islamic regime falls, but those conflicts will likely take place amongst different power blocks in the government (Armed Forces vs. Revolutionary Guards vs. Police/Secret Police) rather than, say, Persians against Kurds against Azerbaijanis.

At least that's my take on it.