FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Spring 2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

More to do with the uncertainty surrounding it occurring. EC46 for example had a few days of showing reversal to significant easterlies at 60N 10hPa then it levelled off from this just to go back to showing it yesterday. I don't know what is with the modelling this season in how inconsistent they've been able to latch onto a signal and stick with it.

Even the NAM index which is traditionally used to see if downward propagation occurs or not has been inconsistent. Yesterday's GFS showed -NAM downwelling to the lower stratosphere and if one looks at the GFS 0z FI from then, you can see signs of that downwelling with a Canadian vortex around Greenland getting blocked by high pressure to the east with long fetched WAA, some kind of split of the polar vortex would probably follow depending on other things.

Any impact is probably at least three weeks away if there would be propagation. Until then it looks primarily that our weather will be driven by rinse and repeating of mid-latitude blocking.

Simple terms: Our weather will be drier than it has been for so long (well since Christmas to New Year) going through early March. Weak fronts will possibly bring showery, cloudier conditions at times particularly out west closer to the southwesterly flow as the high pressure systems look to be rather transient rather than omega anticyclones. Temperatures around average for early March in the low double digits and touching the teens.

The major SSW is ongoing as we speak with splitting vortices before the PV recovers by Thursday but still little sign of directly influencing our weather on the NWP output.

Unfortunately it looks like the Atlantic zonal flow is likely to influence our weather more readily next week with Azores ridges getting flattened off by deep Greenland troughing. Increasingly wet with temperatures at the surface around average for early March which will feel cool at times in blustery winds.

For early next week, weaker fronts will bring rain at times with deeper low pressure by Thursday. The ECM OP 0z went quite deep with stormy conditions by March 13th/14th but this was on the bottom end of the range.

Is it going to warm up?

Some GFS runs in recent days have been attempting to propagate the effects of the early March polar vortex split into early April with a retrogression of the pattern to an overall cold one. However, the most recent 0z run (06z is updating as I speak) was a complete contrast and was on the warm side of things if anything with a lot of dry weather from the final days of March into April. Very similar timing to last year. If you remember, we had a prolonged spell of fine weather from late March all the way to mid-April when the pattern broke down somewhat.

The ECM is more mixed with the OP showing quite cold northeasterlies for a time through the opening days of April before more average conditions but not that wet either.

Overall at this point in time, the main trend I'm seeing is there is not a lot to suggest very wet weather in the next couple of weeks. Whether it's cold or mild depends on where any high pressure systems will be placed exactly. This is the time of year where the east coast tends to get maximum cooling effect from onshore sea breezes whereas the more sheltered west will tend to be warmer. Though given how much above average the sea surface temperatures are, this cooling effect will be smaller than normal.

Sticking to the t120 timeframe, another temporary interlude of cooler northwesterlies is likely this weekend after a recovery following the current period which will introduce some showers and stronger winds for a time. Pressure then is likely to rise to some extent from the Azores into early next week with a fair amount of cloud at first as the air is sourced off the North Atlantic. If this high can gain some latitude as per the recent GFS then we'll get sunny spells or more unbroken sunshine more readily by the first days of April.

I've seen better but also way worse outlooks.