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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 820 ✭✭✭davidsr20


    just home from 5 days in Poland. Seen lots of snow was nice.

    IMG_6323.jpeg IMG_6157.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,502 ✭✭✭Rebelbrowser




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,709 ✭✭✭highdef


    A transient ridge of high pressure followed by continued Atlantic dominance?



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    CFS keeps the current onslaught going all the way to May 2nd and then we switch into a very cold (for time of year) easterly and northerly regime with long fetch siberian easterlies stretching into mid May. If the current Atlantic dominance continues uninterrupted it's possible it could be wet every day until late Spring or early summer. Atlantic has thrown everything it can at us since end of August 2025 and there is absolutely no sign that it's going to stop any time soon.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,729 ✭✭✭esposito


    The CFS is a load of rubbish Gonzo. Why even mention it 😂



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    There are some times it's actually right and it's the only model that goes well beyond the +384 hours and unreliable past a few days just like all the other models. Having said that we've had about 6 months of Atlantic muck with only 2 breaks, one in October and the other end of December and opening week to 10 days of January.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    Here’s the latest model verification stats I could find from the models at day 6 (144h)

    IMG_1446.jpeg

    Ecmwf consistently at the top, with cmc (Gem) and UKMO not far behind. Gfs a step behind again, with CFS way off the mark…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 579 ✭✭✭Thunder87


    CFS isn't really a "normal" model, from what I remember from looking at it years ago it's got very crude input parameters and focuses more on things like sea temperatures and high level drivers than precise atmospheric conditions. So it's more useful for getting an idea of general trends (i.e high pressure vs more Atlantic shite) than actual day to day weather



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,237 ✭✭✭compsys


    Not only that, but why mention a forecast three MONTHS away! We all know the models can really only forecast up to a week in advance. Max. It's just silly to suggest in February that we're going to get a cold May…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,327 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    I agree but I didn’t know models could go up to 3 months ahead , that’s a new one for me , anything after even 6 days its fantasy land



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    We all know the CFS is mostly rubbish and it has plenty of nicknames but it's always interesting to just roll the hover button way past +384 hours to spot trends, mostly the CFS will always trend to Atlantic dominance but sometimes it can pick up on cold spells or warm/hot spells but this is very rare.

    Majority of the time across all models anything beyond 4 days is unreliable, and everything else is just fantasy but curiosity always gets the better of us and we just love to hover well beyond the reliability zone.

    Back in the day before the internet there was always surprises and no disappointments because we had no access to weather models, only what was on RTE, BBC, ITV and Sky Channel, no more than 1 day ahead did they focus on, sometimes maybe 2 days and if they said there was going to be an easterly with snow, it came the following day and then the mild sets in and it comes. Maybe we were better off back in this day when we only had terrestial tv weather forecasts to feed on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 364 ✭✭ClimateObserver


    Well damn that anyways, rather likely to be a poor Spring incoming.

    image.png


  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    We had a proper Ssw on March 13th last year, and remember that Spring! Nothing is guaranteed when the Strat is involved imo



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,783 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    ECM Stormy conditions in the SW

    Friday 3am

    IMG_6587.jpeg

    Friday 6am

    IMG_6589.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    IMG_1651.png.387faa6896971dedf1b8baf16247ed7e.png

    This was posted over on net weather. SSW with a big split for 10 days time. Chance perhaps of a white Paddys day this year if we do go into a cold pattern?? 🤣That would be so typical all too bloody late.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    Not sure I believe it, we spent almost a month since early January following an SSW split which was due to take place around 1 February, of course it never happened, just displacements over and over, doesn't really matter now as it's too late and snow falling and melting on impact mid to late March is just too little too late.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 67 ✭✭dairyedge2




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,151 ✭✭✭✭Birdnuts


    I think the danger of a very cold spring has significantly increased based on what I've read from other EU MET servicies based on this potential PV displacement(potential 2013 repeat??) - that and the fact that 2 benign springs in a row is an increadibly rare beast in terms of the Irish climate….



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Not how it works. Unfortunately, we can't pick our preferred weather. No need for rudeness.

    @Billcarson is entitled to interpret charts how he pleases.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,937 ✭✭✭Billcarson


    March might have other ideas lol. Probably get a mix of everything. It is called the Month of many weathers after all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 626 ✭✭✭slimboyfat


    Bit of a contradiction there, as there is nothing but cold weather and snow talked about on this thread, everything else goes unnoticed.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    There’s no contradiction in what I said. People are free to interpret charts however they wish, but their analysis won’t change the eventual outcome, and it certainly shouldn’t prompt rude remarks.

    As for the thread itself, it’s titled (FI) Fantasy Island. You won’t find many users enthusiastically posting charts celebrating a mild, rain-laden south-westerly, though anyone who wants to is perfectly entitled to do so. In winter especially, discussion naturally gravitates toward cold and snow.

    Feel free to post and discuss model output regarding the 'unnoticed' that you refer to.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    In winter yes we would always be chasing snow in here, as for Atlantic rain and storms those happen all the time and make it into general chat, dedicated threads if the storm is severe etc etc. In the summer we do like to talk about heatwaves and spanish plumes so it's not all just cold and snow in here!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 202 ✭✭odyboody


    Agreed,

    and for those that don't know the F in FI Charts stands for fantasy. Its not as if most in here actually beleive what is being shown will happen.

    If all forecasts came true exactly as predicted bookies would be out of businness overnight.



  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Higher than average rainfall to come for Atlantic coastal counties over the next two weeks, but normal totals are likely across the eastern half of Ireland through the period.

    image.png


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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,336 Mod ✭✭✭✭Gonzo


    I have opened the Spring FI thread since it now mostly concerns Spring and not the final days of winter.



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  • Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 1,916 Mod ✭✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Closing this thread as it relates to winter 120+hrs.

    Meteorological spring begins on Sunday.

    RIP Winter 2025/26 (ya' filthy animal)



This discussion has been closed.
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