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Football ranking table

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    Of the predictions, Cork are not great travellers, Louth may well celebrate St Brigid's day with a win.

    Last week, Roscommon pretty much matched Kerry, while Monaghan had no answer for Armagh, so a home win by the Rossies would not surprise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,509 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Roscommon are strong favourites with the bookies, as are Donegal against Kerry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Ranking table update:

    myimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭Dogsdodogsstuff


    wow, are meath really that high ? By that I mean on form since last summer they are there or thereabouts near the top 4 ?!


    I’ve wanted a strong meath in Leinster to challange Dublin and based on your points Dublin are closer in level to Kildare/louth. Sorry, won’t try to take this excellent thread off topic. I was at Dublin v meath game last year and was surprised how good they were but didn’t realise they were potentially “top 3” good.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 11,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭Hammer Archer


    The first game we lose in division 2 and we'll drop a good bit. We were 10th in the rankings table before the Kerry game and 2nd after the Galway game. We did lose points against Donegal but not much as they were favourites.

    Personally think that this year could be a massively competitive Leinster championship. Assuming Louth and Dublin meet, it'll be interesting to see how Louth do as reigning champions. If Kildare and Meath meet, I think it'd be 50-50 as Kildare have massively improved.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    They are not top 3 good. As I posted above, I would not back Meath against Mayo, Galway or Armagh.

    Meath got a boost last year from beating Kerry, but that did not really reflect the true capacity of the teams. However, Meath have now risen so high that they will get nothing for beating Div 2 teams, but will drop if they are beaten and they have to play Cork and Tyrone still.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,743 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    How does this ranking table work do div 1 opponents have more weighting than div 2 etc ? Or is it just on matches played irrespective of standard of opposition?

    Not really that much between 8-16. There could be a lot of changes there.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,302 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    The division does not count, but the position on the table counts and especially the gap. So Meath and Mayo didn't get much for beating Cavan and Dublin, because they were already well ahead of these. The Rossies got a lot more for beating Monaghan, as the latter were quite high on the table. If Meath beat a Div 2 team they'll get a modest return, or nothing at all, but if a Div 2 team beats them then they'll drop like Monaghan.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,775 ✭✭✭theoneeyedman


    I've been following @laoisman11 s thread for a few years, and by and large it works well. The logic behind it is outlined in the OP, so I'd suggest reading that before asking questions and questioning the system. A few big championship wins does often mean you can jump up the table quickly, but what should push you up the table of not jig wins in the championship? Meath got to the semi final last year IIRC, so it should not be amazing they are in around the top 4 in the table surely? Sometimes lads can take issue with where their favorite team is placed, but they have to win games against teams above them to climb up the rankings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 952 ✭✭✭Deskjockey


    It's really amazing that Tipp won a munster final in the recent past. How on earth did they actually do it that year

    And now they are below Antrim and New York.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭Dogsdodogsstuff


    I actually forgot meath were in semis!

    I agree about the table , I quote it with friends.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,524 ✭✭✭Kevhog1988


    out of interest has anyone ever placed an accumulator based on the output?. Im not a betting man but just interested



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,250 ✭✭✭MacDanger


    I've included the model predictions in the GAA pools competition for the last couple of years and it finished ~ midtable. I think LM himself has beaten it both times.

    The scoring system in that comp would make it slightly different to what the betting outcomes might be though.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Predictions are a tough one because they can't take into account missing players, relative importance of games if one team has already qualified, etc. I'm no more than a mid-table finisher in the pools myself, and am envious of those who continuously finish top of the table.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,071 ✭✭✭crusd


    It kind of makes sense that a decent prediction model would finsih midtable.

    If a prediction model finshed top what would be the point in sport.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,743 ✭✭✭✭gormdubhgorm


    Weren’t those key Tipp footballers “lost” to the hurlers? That good minor team from Tipp basically carried the seniors for a while. I seem to remember Kerry fans at an AI telling me how good they were. Back when the minor and senior were on the same day.

    I suppose it gives hope for any county find three/four players that fulfil star potential and could rocket up this table.

    Guff about stuff, and stuff about guff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,775 ✭✭✭theoneeyedman


    We're getting into a general football chat here aren't we, rather than just the rankings?

    I wonder, can Longford avoid the bottom of the table this year. They've been pretty much the worst team in the country for the last year or so, and have lost to both London and Waterford during the last 12 months.

    It's a shambolic position for a county without any hurling, rugby or indeed soccer, gone when they were competing high up in D2 and narrowly losing to Kerry in Killarney in the championship, a game that launched Kieran Donaghy's career in earnest IIRC.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output below for this weekend's games….

    predmyimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭Tombo2001


    Ah look, anyone moaning that the rankings are nonsense because whatever team it is shouldnt be there….are missing the point.

    The numbers say they should be there.

    And so one of two things will happen. You are right, they are not good enough to be ranked that highly and they will fall back down. Clearly this is happening to to Irish rugby team at the moment. We all knew during autumn that really they werent the second or third best team in the world, that they are 5th or 6th. And thats where they are now going.

    Or, you are wrong, and this team is better than you think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,775 ✭✭✭theoneeyedman




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,601 ✭✭✭munster87


    They lost by 9 points in Killarney. Back when 9 points wasn’t a narrow loss!

    They were closer in 2009



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,775 ✭✭✭theoneeyedman


    That was the game I was thinking about, might have conflatated the games



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,359 ✭✭✭beggars_bush


    Would Longford have the smallest number of registered male players?

    No training center

    No third level college (unlike carlow or Waterford)

    Longford has a very strong rugby club, three hurling clubs, and lots of junior soccer clubs

    Plus, there are so many people of a certain ethnic culture living in the county that none of them will ever play gaa sports



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,001 ✭✭✭downthemiddle


    You can make your point without resorting to bigotry, especially considering the fact that a member of that community won an All Ireland medal last year.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Ranking table update after round 3 of the league - the only minor upset was Roscommon beating Armagh. Rating points were exchanged in 13 of the 16 games played, which generally happens during the league where teams are at relatively similar levels.

    myimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    I had forgotten to add in Waterford's game against Longford from the week previous into the table above, so here is the latest…….

    myimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    And below, prediction model output for this weekend's games:

    predmyimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Updated ranking table below, big gains for Antrim, Roscommon, Louth, Cork and Sligo

    myimage.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,100 ✭✭✭laoisman11


    Prediction model output for this weekend - there are going to be a lot of close games, apparently!

    predmyimage.png


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,599 ✭✭✭legendary.xix


    Roscommon, Down and Carlow are having impressive league campaigns so far.



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