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STORM CHANDRA

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 34,095 ✭✭✭✭zell12




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭.Donegal.




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 419 ✭✭ascophyllum


    1000244673.png 1000244674.png 1000244675.png

    Arome, Arpege and Harmonie, first 2 showing orange level gusts through Waterford and up through the midlands. Waterford and surroundings at a red level if that verifies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,316 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    the whole country in a yellow wind warning so I’d say orange warnings could be issued soon

    IMG_0348.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 57 ✭✭808bassqueen


    Can someone explain these harmonie arome and arpege charts in better detail.

    I get the idea but it looks like winds will be 160km/h in parts. Surely thats red territory?

    Usually with yellow id be happy to drive with caution but this storm is confusing to me. Might cancel the kids swimming lessons.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,716 ✭✭✭An Ri rua


    Yeah sure if its not affecting Donegal and its public transport and its lattés and street scene, sure its not affecting the rest of Ireland.

    Wait...

    East wind has me confussed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17 yougotl


    Any chances of an Orange weather warning for counties, and not a marine warning?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,316 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    As a guess I think if they are to issue warnings it should be before half 9 because then they may run the risk of backlash, unless they are still uncertain in tracks etc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭Rougies


    The ones in this thread are wind gusts charts (rafales = gusts, vent = wind, in French), not mean wind speed. The Orange warning criteria for gusts are "widespread 110-130 km/h gusts", which these charts do show and yes some red warning in places on some charts (over 130 km/h gusts), but not as pronounced..

    However all the different models are not in agreement as to the severity and the track of this storm so it's very difficult to accurately forecast where the worst winds will hit and how bad they will be. IMO, going by charts at the moment, it's likely we will see some orange level winds in places tomorrow, but red level is unlikely to verify.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭BrentMused


    There was 14 minutes of advanced notice for a yellow wind warning for parts of the SE last week.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,316 ✭✭✭Dazler97


    We should be past that type of thing , they really woke up after storm Darwin as they issued red warnings during the storm and was too late by then , prehaps models are a little over the place



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Met Eireanns own afternoon ensembles are showing nowhere on land reaching orange criteria. Their evening ensembles roll out around 9 so worth having a look in the next hour or so but I think country wide yellow is probably fair given the current outlook.

    In terms of models, Icon, UKMO and Arpege are notorious for over estimating gusts. I find that Met Eireanns ensembles usually pretty reliable within this time frame.

    Screenshot_20260126-205349.png Screenshot_20260126-205148.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Id say what's delaying Met Eireann is the variance in models. Orange looks a certainty now across the South, but which counties. It's a dangerous system, red criteria is not beyond possibilities.

    Heres the Icon just out

    17694609920113898994365034274208.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Looks really bad across the South Coast. I would go orange for Kerry, Cork and Waterford from 2pm to 5pm

    Latest gfs

    17694634783972914554690401021986.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    Ah come on now no need for that kind of ramping. Here are the GFS gust forecasts. Just about Yellow criteria at worst.

    xx_model-en-324-0_modusa_2026012618_23_949_254.png


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Strange looks very wound up off the coast? Ah well off to work it is then lol



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,595 ✭✭✭kub


    Did anyone get the Met Eireann forecast at 9:30 tonight on RTE ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 623 ✭✭✭Ros4Sam24


    I mean that’s plain wrong Js. The 15z Arome shows red criteria gusts nowhere over land, and orange only in a few southern counties for a small time.

    IMG_1395.jpeg


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,451 ✭✭✭BrentMused


    GFS looks to be the only model going that weak mind. All of the others look to be much more severe along the south.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,294 ✭✭✭914


    Interested to see how tomorrow fairs out. There is a serious amount of water in the ground already in Waterford, it definitely can't take much more.

    Substantial rain here pretty much most of the day today before another two days of what seems to be persistent rain.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,456 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Powerscourt Waterfall will be on overdrive.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,817 ✭✭✭JanuarySnowstor


    Yes your right, I've modified my original post to Orange. A solid orange for South Coast though I think



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,260 ✭✭✭Exiled Rebel


    I was driving along the R666 yesterday between Lismore and Ballyduff and remarked to myself that the river blackwater was incredibly high. In places it was inches from bursting it's banks on to the flood plains which were largely flooded from previous rainfall. It'll look like the Mississippi come Wednesday.

    Tomorrow will be fun!!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,768 ✭✭✭.Donegal.


    A very wet day for the Mourne and Wicklow mountains.

    image.png

    Orlock head in County Down is my guess for highest gust. 120/130kph 75/80mph ish.

    UK met office mountain forecast for mourne mountains has medium likelihood of blizzards.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 762 ✭✭✭TTLF
    save the trouble and jazz it up


    IMG_5557.jpeg IMG_5556.jpeg

    Not looking great in Churchtown Dublin 😥

    Rain coming down in sheets with the wind



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 393 ✭✭kittyn


    I wonder what it’s like around the Dropping Well 🙈



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,330 ✭✭✭adocholiday


    I noticed a few houses with sandbags out around my area outside Rathdrum in Wicklow. There are a few spots around here prone to flooding and I suspect there will be a fair bit of surface water here by morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,893 ✭✭✭Rougies


    Flooding will be definitely the main story from this event, although it's not directly related to this storm and more of a "The strawrm that broke the river's bank" situation (sorry). Significant river/stream and surface flooding in the southeast is almost guaranteed at this stage. The wind element was never likely to be a major concern, but still could have quite an impact depending on where and how strong it hits. Extremely saturated ground along with high wind gusts from an usual direction will likely light up the powercheck map tomorrow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,165 ✭✭✭giveitholly




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 539 ✭✭✭Donegal Ken


    Red seriously, I honestly don't see how this would be red it's a high end Yellow very low orange at most.



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