Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

How's this developing on this morning's charts? Thank you.

It looks like we're dodging a bullet (close to Eowyn's 1st anniversary)with an intense storm developing to the South of Ireland tomorrow. Of course as its filling and moving Northwards we're going to get it's rain.

The latest (12z) GFS run is suggesting that there could be a snowfall event in many eastern areas this coming Monday night, with snow settling inland. Images below are from the higher resolution 0.125° GFS model.

It shows a large amount of the east midlands receiving over 10cm of snow during the event with some parts receiving over 15cm, however bear in mind that these depths are in the event that there is no snow melt. So based on the two sets of figures, the snow would be rather wet…….eg: knife edge dinner plate stuff, which means it right on the cusp of being rain or snow.

Gerry will be mentioning plenty of sleet and snow confined mainly to higher ground!

Tuesday into Wednesday is worth keeping an eye on. All very marginal it must be said.

UKMO seems to think otherwise. Snow potential on Tuesday afternoon/evening:

Freezing level very close to or at sea level in many midland areas where heavy precipitation is expected to be falling:

And potential snowfall totals:

UKMO did very well in the last UK snowfall event not long ago however Tuesday is a fairly long way away and details could and will likely change between now and then, but interesting to see, in any case.

I see Met Eireann do mention snow for high ground on Tuesday, but at the same time don't totally exclude some falling on lower ground. I think the reality is cold rain for most people. It will feel very raw in that easterly breeze too

Yes it did diminish overnight, rain the main story. GFS just increased snow potential for Ulster and Leinster so still some room for improvements.

Gfs Muster/South Connacht highest risk on tonight’s run.

A non event, wet snow at best. Even if it did stick it would be gone immediately. Longer term gathering pace though!!

Places like, Leitrim, Cavan, Fermanagh, Tyrone looks like sweet spots Tuesday for some temporary snow accumulations high parts if Donegal also. I think there is alot more of a risk here of places seen snow compared to a few weeks ago when that snow warning was issued for the south Cork and Waterford. Ecmwf model looks interesting this morning. Could be fairly disruptive if that fsme of on the Tuesday morning rush hour

ECM sticking to its guns

The warning for the north now includes a wind warning for gusts of up to 70mph for eastern and northern coasts , along with a rain warning it won’t be pleasant. Snow is mentioned for the first time but not much made of it.

Outbreaks of rain will spread across Northern Ireland during Tuesday, perhaps falling as snow for a time on high ground, before turning more showery later in the day. Rainfall totals of 15-25 mm are likely fairly widely, with 40-60 mm possible on high ground, especially in eastern areas. Given the saturated nature of the ground, this may lead to some flooding.

Rain will also be accompanied by strong east to southeasterly winds, particularly in northern and eastern areas where peak gusts of 40-50 mph are possible inland and potentially 60-70 mph along some exposed coasts.

Now a combined wind and rain warning, with impact level increased from low to medium and text updated accordingly. Start time also brought forward and end time extended.

Ecm, is this a serious storm that quietly crept up on us?