Will AI take your job?

This is entirely theoretical as I don't think AI will become more than tools that humans use. But if It did happen then the government could use AI to provide for everyone's basic needs.

the joys of narcissism, where everyone's a winner!

Indeed, and I've heard this utopian vision so many times over my 50 years. Everything in the future will be great, robots will do all our work and…something, something, we'll want for nothing. That type of future is far less likely to occur than the dystopian one.

The reality is we have two paths here. One is that we harness AI fast and really learn to control it before we let it get to the point where it controls us because we end up dependencies of it (and no, I'm not talking Skynet). The other is we end up in a new 18th/19th Century type situation, where vast wealth and power is concentrated amongst the tiny few and the vast majority end up living in dreadful the conditions of their own stinking miasma because they cannot afford decent healthcare or to feed, clothe and house themselves adequately.

He may well be.

Nobody can provide evidence about what will happen in the future, the future hasn't happened, it's unknowable. All you can do is try to make your beat guess.

I don't think we'll all be sitting on the beach. When I mentioned that I said it was assuming AI and robotics will be able to replicate everything humans can do. I don't think that will happen, at least not with the next 50 years.

Firstly, even if AI does reach human level cognition or better, there will be a limit to it's computing capacity. AI is extremely expensive with enormous computing and energy usage. So I think there will be a balance of human and AI production factors.

Secondly, there's no reason to believe at this point that AGI will happen. AI is an illusion of intelligence. It needs humans to continially monitor and fine tune it.

I think AI will be an amazing tool for humanity that will increase productivity, therefore increasing prosperity and poverty, as have other technologies, such as the printing press, internal combustion engine and the transistor.

It's already having an impact.

Certain data sources are becoming more valuable, like pre-ai stuff. New seams are also being used.

Ultimately though, I guess we'll have to have humans train AI for a certain transition period anyway. That might be where new AI jobs are created. For a while.

The general tendency is to see a reduction in variety and originality of writing on the web, as people post LLM-generated content to these sites. Even before AI there's been a tendency to merely copy and modify stuff that someone else has done without knowing (or caring) whether it is correct, but AI will accelerate this tendency.

Also, as time goes on, strange biases will start appearing and multiplying. Odd phrases and ideas will propagate based, not on ground truth, but on the ability to get itself copied. A bit like Internet memes today but more virulent.

Scraping the web for training content is no longer sufficient. Already there are hundreds of thousands of people employed to correct and train AI. This is an area that will continue to grow until the AI companies build robots that can go out into the world and gather their own truth. AI is not yet embodied and so still relies on humans.

Surely AI is the death of outsourcing and first level support? How can a team of coders in India beat AI for quality?

I suspect their vision of things is too blinkered. They look like they bought into the AI gospel a little too deeply and seem to have an awe of the tech feudalists that is quite repulsive. Life and work is much more varied.

On the other hand it's useful to hear these voices too

Very good video to watch. Richard Sutton, a Turing award winner talks to a podcaster.

Richards view on the limitations of LLMs as a path to AGI contrasts sharply with the podcaster.

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If you follow down the path of AI needing value functions to get to AGI this is a good follow on video.

I'd say we are self selecting....it could be argued somewhat that random chance wiped out dinosaurs....it could also be argued they still exist among us or at least some of their genetic line

One thing is for sure a small number of them didn't put the asteroid on a collision course with the Yucatan penninsula and wipe out most of their various species

As always happens they couldn't adapt to the new environment and survive it......could easily happen to us to.