Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

Did you steal this idea from the 1980s TV show Salvage 1 where they towed an iceberg to California to help with a drought? 😁

A tangent I know but I started watching Sky News in recent weeks after a 10+ year break. There was a time when "Breaking News" actually meant something big and new. Now they seem to use it for a trivial/repetitive headline every single day. It has become meaningless. More dopamine hits I guess.

Yeah maybe so but things had become silly here and people were falling into the trap (and ignoring the blatant violation if international law in Venezuela). I don't hunt for likes either. Trump always starts with an outrageous opening position to deflect. We should all know that by now.

What odds would you give for an invasion and takeover (i.e. US ownership)?

I would offer much less than 1% or even 'politically impossible'. Many many reasons but mainly:

1. An attack would turn US into the aggressor against it's own defensive alliance (NATO). NATO would collapse. That would anger Congress, the Pentagon and every other US institution that matters. NATO countries would have to expel the US from their bases. Absolute strategic disaster. Decades of progress up in smoke.
2. The USA gain very little from an attack. They already have military access and cooperate on security and early warning systems. They can negotiate for mining rights and ports and further influence without attacking a mainly ice shelf with 57,000 brave souls.
3. Trump would need Congress to launch a war on a NATO country. Very unlikely. I think he would face massive resignations in the military and intelligence service if he tried to do so.
4. There is very little public support for an invasion. No casus belli. Very important to have public support. The optics would be shocking.
5. The markets would crumble too!

When I saw the term "working group" I knew it would be boring diplomacy rather than tanks and guns. There will be lots of posturing and negotiation tactics and there will be some kind of deal hammered out before the mid terms I'd imagine.

What % chance would you give for an invasion now?

All good points. I am always glad that Trump has family in that if he had no possible "successors" he might do completely daft things or even launch the nukes (always a risk). He'll never convince Congress about Greenland all the same because they can do more than 2 terms so need to think about the future. And the markets would be livid with him so he and his family/friends would lose a lot of money.

Oops touched a nerve I see. Thought this was a discussion forum. Grand, let see where we are in a month. You missed the point re Venezuela (actual v projected). It also successfully distracted from ICE, Epstein etc. I'll say no more on Greenland. It's a non story now. A chicken licken.

You put too much stock in Congress unfortunately. Trump is liable to do what he wants and worry about justification after the fact. He doesn't care about due process and runs roughshod over it constantly, with the flimsiest rationale, often pointing to a bizarre interpretation of some obscure legal point.

Don't forget January 6th, and don't forget he is still talking about a 3rd term. The scumbag is actively setting the conditions for dictatorship.

1. Trump has been spending his second term neutering, dismantling, or perverting every US institution that matters. Where they have survived, they have had MAGA puppets installed. He has stacked the courts and threatens their 'independence'. He is now targeting the federal reserve chairman, who also should be independent. Congress has shown itself to be either in thrall to this maniac, or too weak and scared to confront him. Trump has regularly attacked NATO, he doesn't care a jot about it. He wants the world divided among strongmen dictators, each with their sphere of influence wherein might is right.

2. The US knows they have massive freedom currently with regard to 'security' or mining potential with Greenland as it stands but 'pyschologically' Trump needs to own it. It would also massively increase the US footprint, exit them from NATO obligations, allow them to encircle and isolate Canada, and gain some potential future 'mineral wealth'.

3. Trump cares not for Congress, or due process. He needed Congress to approve Venezuela - did he seek that approval? No. He needed Congress for tarrifs - did he seek that approval? No. Many more examples.

4. The optics are already shocking. Trump is dividing americans into 'with us or against us' and is using corrupted US institutions to further this, cracking down with his own twisted geheime staats polizei/ gestapo.

5. The markets... The US is many trillions in debt. Beyond what should be possible. They are printing new money, and the fear is they simply loot their Hemisphere into the future if this dystopian timeline is not halted.

With regard to the 'working group'... Have you heard the US mention it? I have just heard their Danish/ Greenlandish counterparts say this.

Ultimately, there is very little we can be complacent about at the moment, and our seeing the EU countries and UK taking this seriously should tell you something... It's serious.