DART+ (DART Expansion)

Wicklow is covered from within the existing BEMU order

The problem is the infrastructure is very slow, no chance of an extension on the 10 year framework as a long list of manufacturers would cry foul rightly

We got away with the ICR B2 project as only Hyundai could build the carriages, cleverly we bought extra carriages not new units

We have until December 2031 to call off further orders from Alstom under the DART+ framework. Anything past that will be a new tender process

Maynooth is fine as that should be live in 2030, Cork should be ok for 2031, the real risk DART SW you need that to be substantially complete in 2032 or otherwise you will have trains lying idle and the politics on that are a problem

The best game plan is to put to replace the Tokyo Car fleet in 2031 and play it each way game and not actually withdraw them, or you ask Alstom to slow production down

Any order placed today won't hit production until late 2029, they can do about 100-110 a year

We would need to order by end 2028 to ensure continuity of production as some of the parts are 12 month on order, this is the bodyshells mainly

But this is Ireland and the NTA will have Irish Rail running around in circles before letting them do a tender

Irish Rail can at any point terminate the current framework and retender

Fine for a bus, but from opening a tendering process to getting a train into service is 4-5 years. Clearly Alstom can tender again and given they will have a certified and in service product available will be able to win the tender on several grounds

1. Time to delivery, no time stuck with certification or first in class
2. Risk, known proven and already certified
3. Cost, as the development costs were sunk in the first order way back in 2021

Assumes Alstom actually wants in again…

But this is a EU tendering and railway companies are never logical when it comes to tendering awards, Irish Rail having done business with the Swiss, French, Germans, Spanish, Koreans, Japanese, UK and US based suppliers all in the last 50 years (go back further to add the Dutch as well). No loyalty here.

It also messes up the depot setup

I can see a problem with the LHB replacement order number. They won't be replaced like for like. The LHB mainly run as 6 car sets 90% of the time. The new EMU 5 car formation is equal to 4 cars of the exisiting fleet. So there will either be a reduction in capacity per train running or less trains runinng overall due to capacity need to run as 10 car formations.

It will still be an overall capacity increase, the third order would be a 1:1 replacement of 80x 8100 cars, whereas the fleet is only 72 cars, so it's more capacity than adding an additional 6-car 8100 set to the system.

The question is just how will that capacity be used. In my mind they have two options on how to run the 20 units, either as 10x 10-car sets or as 8x 10-car sets and 4x 5-car sets. The former would be run if they decide the need to match the amount of sets currently running (assuming 12x 6-car sets) is more important than having everything as a full length unit.

Truthfully though I think they are likely to run everything to full length even if it means a slight drop in frequency. Running everything as full length will help prevent any one service from becoming immediately overcrowded because it's only 5-cars. Especially as the first 6x EMUs that are coming as a part of the second order are meant to allow all 8500s to operate as 8-car set. Additionally, while it could result in a slight drop in frequency, this could give a better buffer to the timetables and help prevent delays in advance of D+ being completed.

I thought the 8100 fleet as is consists of 76 cars. Have 2 sets recently been removed from servcie?

Getting back to running sets, maintenance spares have to be considered also. If an 8100 set is out for maintenance that is a 2 car reduction and the rest of the set can run as a 4 car or reform as needed. If an 8500 set is out, thats 4 cars down, like wise when an 80000 or 90000 set is out for maintenance thats 5 cars out, equivilent to cars 4 cars now.

Depending or maintenance and failure intervals, the new DART sets can have more knock on effects than the current 8100 fleet.

I'd argue the point that it's not a 1 to 1 replacement for the 8100s. It's short.

19x 4 car sets but the 8100s run as 6 car sets. 12x 6 car trains and 2 sets spare maybe.

Replacement is 20x 5 car sets. New 5 car sets are equal capacity and length to existing 4 car sets. There is the capacity, vs frequency issue. You need at least 24x 5 cars sets to replace the 8100s with the flexibility that the 8100s provide in being a base 2 car set.

I would not say the 8500s are in good shape at all. Most have torn open gangways that let the wind and rain in, doors, bogies and seating all need alot of work.

Looking at the initial BEMU order, I believe the the initial BEMU fleet will be used to sublement the 29000s while some of that fleet go through a mini refurb program before being sent to Cork to replace the 2600s. I know IE have not stated this outright but it's a theory I've had since looking at the BEMU numbers and the initial planned deployment of the BEMU units.

I just hope that my cynicism of IE does not come to reality in that they will use a single 5 car set to replace the current 6 car 8100 formations.

No, they will just be coupling 2x 5-car sets together, however keep in mind this is very common internationally.

This may change in the future (probably not within this framework though) with fleets progressing towards open gangways as there is more capacity to be gained. However, there are still benefits to using half length units from a operational and maintenance perspective, plus it's much more flexible. For example, off-peak there may be less siding space available for full length trains, or there may just not be enough demand to run full length trains.

Big 10 car sets are not the best. If you have a relatively simple fault on one carriage, then the whole 10 goes out of traffic. With the 2x 5 you can split them and join up with another 5, leaving just 5 cars out of traffic. Or if really stuck, run 5 vice no train at all.