Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 01:07PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122181#Comment_124122181

Storm Goretti, named by Meteo France.

almostthere12 · 06-01-2026 01:12PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122457#Comment_124122457

If I am reading that correctly the dam 528 line is south of Ireland after it passes through??

JanuarySnowstor · 06-01-2026 02:17PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122485#Comment_124122485

Going by gfs it's as the rain clears that the dam line moves South...but we'll South then all day Friday giving possible showery falls by then

Robwindstorm · 06-01-2026 02:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122457#Comment_124122457

Cheers Wolf, and even though at present we're not in the firing line, this will be a very interesting Storm to watch develop and track from tomorrow.

pureza · 06-01-2026 02:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122222#Comment_124122222

Sundays system in Cork and Kerry should be the guide

It was colder then than it will be Thursday,much colder and most places got rain or sleet ,with any snow well inland above 200 metres although a lot of wet flakes in the rain on the Ballincollig bypass on Sunday as I was passing through

Higher thickness and higher surface temperatures on Thursday mean rain pure and simple except maybe at the top of mullaghanish in Co corks case maybe

munsterlegend · 06-01-2026 02:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122763#Comment_124122763

Yeah would be expect places like Ballydesmond to get snow but nothing but rain anywhere else. Thats of course if system goes as currently modelled.

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 03:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122763#Comment_124122763

Affected locations would be similar to those in January 2025 i.e. high ground in Munster and south Leinster.

squonk · 06-01-2026 04:15PM

There was a fairly low shoreline last January here. Higher hills around Ennistimon were covered in score but we had some sleet and cold rain here. I think conditions were slightly nicer further north so even higher ground in both Clare didn’t get coverage. The further south in Clare the better.

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 04:19PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123083#Comment_124123083

I was housebound for a few days last January. On the leeward side of Mount Callan. Thursday's setup, as depicted on the ICON, is quite similar.

Latest ICON below

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 04:27PM

This afternoon’s ICON output highlights a snow potential for Thursday that bears strong similarities to the set-up on January 5th 2025. On that occasion, a slider low ran into colder air over Ireland, resulting in heavy snowfall across higher ground in Munster and parts of inland south and mid-Leinster.

JanuarySnowstor · 06-01-2026 04:43PM

No time at the moment to check charts. Obviously the Icon is superb for Southern Ireland and has hugely upgraded from 12hrs ago

JanuarySnowstor · 06-01-2026 04:49PM

Gfs sticks to earlier guidance. Sleet/snow across the South, all very marginal but makes for compulsive viewing

typhoony · 06-01-2026 04:54PM

Probably need the next few runs to trend just a bit colder as it's knifedge stuff at the moment. Whatever about our chances Wales and midlands in the UK are going to get a dumping aided by it moving through late thursday evening

typhoony · 06-01-2026 05:02PM

Whatever happens one thing is definite is that met eireann will get it wrong either way and if they do give a warning we wont get the update until late wednesday evening

ClimateObserver · 06-01-2026 05:02PM

ICON 12z not backing down from it's earlier run. Looks to be more an Ireland event than England event on the 12z to be honest.

bloopy · 06-01-2026 05:07PM

Are we back on the snow train then?

typhoony · 06-01-2026 05:10PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123245#Comment_124123245

I Wouldnt trust the ICON guidance as it's out on it"s own with regard to the track of the Low

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 05:15PM

The latest high-resolution AROME model also indicates a risk of snow for southern areas on Thursday, with higher ground locations most likely to see lying snow. However, there remains significant uncertainty in the forecast, with other models suggesting that Thursday will stay dry.

In my opinion, as impressive as the charts may look, the AROME would deliver for elevated locations mainly

munsterlegend · 06-01-2026 05:27PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123300#Comment_124123300

This track probably wont be nailed down until tomorrow evening.

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 05:29PM

The GFS model nudges the developing storm system further north on Thursday, bringing outbreaks of rain for many areas and snow on high ground, with back-edge snowfall possible lower down as the system pulls away. There are growing indications of at least some wintry weather for southern counties.

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 05:29PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123351#Comment_124123351

Won't be nailed down until it happens! On the day, it could end up much further north.

Atlantic systems in winter have a habit of tracking further north than what had previously been modelled.

John.Icy · 06-01-2026 05:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124122763#Comment_124122763

But the Sunday system dragged in a much warmer pocket of air than what the ICON is showing. Also came with WNW/NW winds off the Atlantic which are much more likely to modify any cold air and introduce much more robust mild sectors. Dew points looked to be 1-3c based on the hi res charts from that feature before they dropped again as the wind shifted more northerly and colder air pulled back south. Little chance with those dew points of anything.

For Thursday, they look closer to 0c inland, 0-1c maybe. Easterly winds too.

So not a total like-for-like situation. Though I do consider those hatched maps on ICON to be way to generous. If the same run has DPs of 1c straddled across the inner south, I don't see how they show heavy snow too concurrently? The patches of DPs that are 0c or below seem to correlate where the ICON predicts settling snow at least. Maybe a resolution thing as the Meteociel charts just sporadically throw down some DP values.

Anyway, with ICON rather on it's own in terms of more widespread falling snow well into the midlands, much ado about nothing maybe. Lots of changes in the track to come one thinks.

munsterlegend · 06-01-2026 05:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123361#Comment_124123361

The bbc believe a lot of snow for central England and Wales.

Gonzo · 06-01-2026 05:37PM

hopefully this shifts well to the south, not many people here look forward to a baltic day of winds and cold rain. Even better if it heads into north France instead and England/Wales don't get that massive 1980s style dumping.

The air this time around looks even more marginal than it did last January. Most of what fell over the weekend in the south-west was rain and the weekend was alot colder in both upper air and surface temperatures compared to this Thursday so I feel if this system does bump into Ireland it will be rain for the most part and cold rotten rain at that.

squonk · 06-01-2026 05:49PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123387#Comment_124123387

Id second that. @WolfeEire had a snow fest this time last year but I remember a few extremely cold miserable wet days and even worse as I was sick so noticed the cold and miserable rain even more. I’d honestly prefer a few showers and some sunshine to something that won’t deliver snow for many anyway

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 05:58PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123416#Comment_124123416

I have little interest in Thursday either as I do think it will be mostly cold rain away from hills and mountains, but there is damn all to talk about at the moment weather wise. I also do not see any increasing support for the easterly that briefly wiggled its ass at us at 240hrs in the ECM yesterday. The battlelines between a raging Atlantic and screaming easterly seem to get stuck along the Norwegian side of the North Sea. The outlook is looking occasionally wet, breezy and chilly going forward, perfectly befitting our position as an island nation on the outermost edge of Northwest Europe in winter 😏

Gonzo · 06-01-2026 06:21PM

yep have to say the momentum of possible further cold spells this month for us seems to be disappearing fast. All models showing Atlantic domination from this weekend onward to +384 hours, cold zonality but not overly cold so most of what falls will be rain or hail going forward complete with the manky damp Atlantic air making it feel much colder than it actually is.

NAO due to go fairly positive over the next few weeks which suggests blocking disappears for us and the AO is still a split between deeply negative and deeply positive with everything inbetween, so looking at todays models the chances of another decent bite of the cherry over the next week or two look slim. Maybe things will improve second half of January but we won't see into that until next week.

I hope the recent cold snap wasn't our only taste of winter all winter.

Billcarson · 06-01-2026 06:44PM

I really hope this snap wont be our only taste of winter. Probably end up with our usual second half of Jan muck ,then all hope's resting on Feb to save our winter which going by recent yrs I wouldn't have much faith in. Then next year we will likely have an El Nino winter to look forward too lol ,the Joy's....

Gizit · 06-01-2026 06:53PM

ECM says hold my beer

WolfeEire · 06-01-2026 06:56PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124123510#Comment_124123510

Our winter increasingly runs from February to April so all hope is not lost, Gonzo.

If I was to grasp at straws in spotting a cold trend, I would reach out and pull one from the GEFS mean. The 12z (top) run shows ridging a little further west compared to the 6z (bottom).

as @Gizit suggested, perhaps the ECM is looking at our posts and going…

Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

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