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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38,144 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    Given how desperate AGS were with nothing burgers, anything to try to link Bailey to the murder... that suggests it doesnt relate to him. So like other information eg shoe print not in Bailey's size we heard nothing more about it.

    It could still well be nothing.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 977 ✭✭✭flanna01


    Let's get real here..

    If there was one speck evidence relating to Bailey found during the DNA testing, it would have been broadcasted on every Irish media platform available - Have no doubt about that.

    The fact that it hasn't speaks volumes.

    Even the Irish Premier suggested that Bailey got away with murder…

    This case has been scrutinized beyond belief, still no evidence that puts Bailey at the scene..

    Very few people knew Sophie was travelling to Ireland for a few days. Bar the cleaner, it was her fellow countrymen that knew, take that as you like, but they are the facts.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Finbarr and Josie would have been the only ones with utter certainty who knew that Sophie was coming to Ireland. After all they were looking after the house, grazing animals on her land, etc…

    News does however travel fast in rural Ireland, but setting this aside, I'd say a lot more on the French side knew that Sophie was going to Ireland and they knew a long time prior, as she asked around before booking flights.

    And whoever knew that Sophie was in Ireland would have made the connection to her cottage, even have known that the cottage was rural and remote. Not that it says or proves that the killer was from France, but it could be a connection worth investigating.

    Bailey probably didn't know at all that Sophie was at her cottage, the man behind the bar only on the day she arrived, and most likely also the Ungerers and the last one probably Karl Heinz Wollney upon visiting a pub. Alfie and Shirely also only at the day she arrived, seen the car, the light on, etc… The guard from Bantry only if she'd called the police at some point, reported something, etc..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,783 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    So another anniversary of her death passes and no progress - see you at end of 2026 so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,640 ✭✭✭tinpib


    There is an interesting post over on Reddit.

    There are many people who are obsessed with this case, that Reddit poster Phil Mathers for one, there are numerous others on this thread over the years too. People who seem to have studied the case as much or more than the professionals such as the Guards, DPP etc.

    I have followed this case closely over the years, read the "Murder at Roaringwater" book, listened to the West Cork podcast, read articles as they popped up, this thread and others etc.

    I was thinking that there is still a gap in the market for a definitive book on the case. But just this morning after reading that reddit post, I realised that a book is probably not the optimum medium, a website/blog would be better.

    It would need to be similar to wikipedia where you have links all over the place so that you can jump around the case to get a clear idea of timelines, evidence, people involved etc and of course far easier to put in a large number high quality images compared to a book. It would be a massive undertaking though.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I wouldn't ever trust Nick Foster and his book about this case. Nick Foster isn't of any relevance to ever solving this case, and so is Sheridan. They can only ask the same question we've all been asking and not having answered.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,783 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    Which truly begs the question why did that gombeen idiot Michael Martin support the book launch and legitimise this pile of written excrement


    https://www.rte.ie/news/2024/0912/1469814-sophie-toscan-du-plantier-case/



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Wow, Phil Mathers is absolutely scathing in his attack on both Sheridan and Moloney

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,657 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I think a lot of people viewed it as hugely inappropriate that Martin got involved in that book launch…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    as im sure you will have noticed while perusing this thread there is little in the way of hard evidence in this case.

    other than the slim hope of some dna. which in itself may prove nothing/have no connection.

    not much is happening in the public realm as regard this case it seems/afaik.

    but if you've reached a dead-end and fancy a last resort to poke at you can always try having a discussion about the offender profile with an ai, such as grok or chatgpt.

    i found the results interesting, if entirely predictable. but if doing so be sure to ask the ai to not just relay prior conclusions back to you, but rather to dig into the case itself and use its processing power to come up with a profile.

    you can probably guess who the profile will fit. just dont say it in here or you'll be met with the stunning news that there's no physical proof.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    It was completely inappropriate and had the potential to prejudice a conviction against Bailey - I think what might have saved Martin from this embarrassing cock-up is that there actually is no evidence against Bailey so a trial was always unlikely.

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,815 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    The answer to the question is most likely money exchanging hands behind the backs of others….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,002 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    I'm impressed if the "processing power" of AI can generate information unknown to investigators, or know a person better than real humans do.

    Otherwise, this is a sort of self-answering question. My guess is as good as Grok!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    No, it can't. That was never the point.

    You can look outside of the case, see if it fits any established pattern associated with other similar crimes. "AI" is good for this.

    But thats only if you've struck a dead end. Like for example if you've been going around in boring circles for months.

    Think of it as an optional extra. There if you ever fancy a change from the same old record.

    https://chatgpt.com/

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 45,539 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    There is not much point trying to get an answer from a computer if you're not going to give it all the possible information. As the investigation to date is based on not actually investigating half of the pool of potential suspects and then assuming one potential suspect is guilty and working from that biased perspective to collect data, what kind of result do you expect from chatGPT?

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    "you can probably guess who the profile will fit."

    How many of the 50 odd original suspects fit the AI profile?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    Theres roughly as much point in asking ai about the case as there is talking about it here, or anywhere else online.

    You don't have to assume anyone. It will just give you a computer based estimate of the profile of the offender.

    For example it might come back as a local man with narcissistic and misogynistic mentality and a history of substance and domestive abuse. Thereafter you could treat that information as informative. Take it or leave it. The result may interest you, or not.

    And then you can go back to waiting on any real developments in the case. Should they ever happen.

    Sure whats the harm?

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,657 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    An AI will happily hallucinate and make up ****. If you're happy with what it's saying, you're not likely to call it out or dispute it. So treating it as a credible criminal profiler is a big leap.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    You dont have to be happy with what it says. Or treat it as a professional.

    Plenty of halluncination and makey up **** in forums too.

    If online forum posts are good enough for you to look at then ai probably is too.

    Post edited by CardF on

    We're never joining nato. 😁



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,783 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “You dont have to be happy with what it says. Or treat it as a professional.”

    Well considering some professionals, namely the director of public prosecutions no less, lambasted other so called “professionals” for submitting a pile of evidential poo, I don’t think being “professional” is all that it’s cracked up to be.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,002 ✭✭✭Day Lewin


    I dunno…I've always wondered about "profiling"

    Freely admit I know nothing about it!

    But, for example, when there's some high-profile case in the headlines - a child abduction, say: then you sometimes see press releases saying that the police have called in a renowned "Profiler" - I think they are criminal psychologists.

    This expert then examines the facts of the case and deduces from them a "profile" of the criminal - let's say, for a fictitious example, "This was done by a middle-aged male who is solitary, has a professional job, sexually repressed…." well, you get the idea.

    I suppose it doesn't take a professional profiler to figure out that a violent crime was done by a violent man, or that a crime of sexual deviancy was done by a pervert.

    But I would be interested to know how many of the professional guesses turned out to be correct! (In cases where the criminal did get prosecuted - and found guilty.) What percentage of the "profiles" were actually useful? How many were no better than educated guesses?

    Thinking this over: every time a criminal is found guilty, there will be more info produced, for the profilers to add to their databases. So possibly they get better and better over time.

    I repeat that I don't know much, but it's all very interesting.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    @CardF

    “Can you list them and Ill check.”

    Start with the first on the list, Jerry Sweeney



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    FBI, ATF, NCA, RCMP, Europol, Interpol, all invest quite a bit in criminal profiling. With dozens of universitites across US and Europe teaching related degrees.

    If you hit a brick wall on a case like this, and are interested, then why not look into what an ai would conclude when acting as a profiler. Or you can ask it to reference similar cases and quote the conclusions of qualified human profilers.

    And if after all that you disagree with the (mostly) unbiased machine you can just switch it off and go back to waiting for developments reported by the press. Dont cost nothin.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,783 ✭✭✭✭Oscar_Madison
    #MEGA MAKE EUROPE GREAT AGAIN


    “FBI, ATF, NCA, RCMP, Europol, Interpol, all invest quite a bit in criminal profiling. “

    So the big question is - did they all conclude Bailey did it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    No hit.

    Theres a Maurice Sweeney noted, a travel agent.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭chooseusername




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    Strangely enough I dont think the RCMP have investigated this case. Although there was some unofficial post-investigation work by retired FBI profiler Jim Clemente and behavioral analyst Laura Richards.

    Their conclusions lining up quite well with psychiatrist Dr Jean Michel Masson, psychologist Kathy Regreny. And with the prompted non-reference conclusions of grok and chatgpt.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 363 ✭✭CardF


    Yes I suppose its back to interminable waiting and recycling the same old details. Should we do the dna again, maybe a bit about the gate. Any news, no didn't think so.

    We're never joining nato. 😁



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 4,914 ✭✭✭chooseusername


    Apologies,

    from memory, got names mixed up, it was Gerry Scully



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