Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

This seems to be footage of the thing

Russia rejecting Christmas ceasefire.

Lovely. Reminds me of Bond's DB7 ejector seat in Goldfinger.

Which likewise got rid of a deadsh​it.

Copying this from the Maritime - What's Out There thread…. as we have a few interesting ships off our coast!!

A couple of dodgy customers off the west coast, one coming from Russia and the other from Israel, destination; 'for orders'. One flying the Ghanaian flag, the other one the Cameroon flag. Both well known flags of convenience…

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:9284235/zoom:8

https://www.marinetraffic.com/en/ais/home/shipid:711963/zoom:8

It's a curious one, the Ukrainian non-use of Flamingos

They could absolutely wreak havoc on the Russian economy in a way drones just cannot.

Who knows really 🤷‍♂️

I wouldn't wipe my arse with a US security guarantee. Worse than useless.

Seen this getting reported by a few places. Where is Russia getting this force from or it's either a mix of Belarusian forces and conscripts.

Id say the true number is far lower.

If the force this size exists, I'd be worried they'd make another plat for Kyiv

Cheeky and brilliant.

Some Ukrainian lads got hold of an unexploded Orc FAB-250 bomb, strapped it to a ground drone, drove it up to an Orc command post and blew it up.

From the photo I'd guess this was a few months ago.

Likely including many inflatable people.

When I use a word,’ Humpty Dumpty said in rather a scornful tone, ‘it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.’

’The question is,’ said Alice, ‘whether you can make words mean so many different things.’

’The question is,’ said Humpty Dumpty, ‘which is to be master — that’s all.

There is already a mechanism in the treaties since 1998, expanded in 2008, to allow some member states to integrate faster than others. It's called Enhanced Cooperation but has almost never been used. I'm not sure it can be used for defence though which is still a national competence. The Commissions a

They can't supply the troops they have. Theres no way they can support another 800,000. If they exist and they try to mobilise them I expect they'll be pushing scooters into North Ukraine which by all accounts is mined to the hilt since the first incursion.

Trump pressuring Europe not to seize Russian assets.

Polish PM Tusk confirms the US pressuring the EU 💵🪀🧊NOT to SEIZE Russian FROZEN assets

"The Americans say: leave these Russian assets alone, because it is difficult to sit down at the negotiating table with Putin and say: 'Let's compromise, but we will take your money'. This is the American argument, which calls for being very careful and not bringing the matter to the brink of collapse," Donald Tusk says as reported by RBC

"Sometimes it turns out that Americans still take a businesslike approach to this issue... It is difficult to talk about a unified European-American position on this issue," the Polish PM concluded.

Also retired general Ben Hodges says the US has been pressuring Belgium not to release the assets for Ukraine, because it wants them to go back to Russia, according to him on Silicon Curtain on youtube.

Russia has 400,000 troops in Belarus. Is this to attack a NATO country?

Separately, Ukraine making progress along the Vovcha river which straddles Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk. Russia is trying to advance towards Novopavlivka.

Separately one challenge Russia would have with Novopavlivka is the high ground protecting it from the South.

Reports from Ukraine (RFU) on youtube says:

Here, after a successful clearing operation on the northern bank of the river, Ukrainian forces are starting their next operation to push forward. Despite the Russians anticipating such a move, the Ukrainian command is spearheading the assault using marines and tanks to penetrate the Russian flank deeper.Ukraine’s main objective in this sector is to advance into the Russian-held area and create a credible threat on the flank of the Russian offensive directed toward Novopavlivka.

The Ukrainians need to escalate pressure in this sector to further erode the Russian effort exactly when the Russian assault has stalled, and Ukrainian units have the chance to turn the tide. In doing so, the Ukrainian command seeks not only to interrupt the tempo of the Russian advance but also to force Russian commanders to reallocate personnel and resources to secure their vulnerable flank, consequently undermining their broader operational posture.

Novopavlivka holds strategic significance because the settlement is located on both banks of the river. If Russian forces capture even one side, the opposing bank will become considerably more difficult for Ukraine to defend, and, similar to the situation in Ivanivka, any captured ground could provide Russia with an improved crossing point for further offensive operations.

The main Ukrainian advantage is that now they have full control over Ivanivka, which facilitates the creation of a staging ground for further operations. As the settlement is secured, Ukrainian forces can use it as a crossing point over the Vovcha River and start attacking to the east, conducting disruptive operations against enemy troops and infiltrating their forward positions. Bad weather conditions, such as fog, would also help them get behind enemy lines, as the Russian reconnaissance drones wouldn’t be able to spot them. If we take a look at the topographic map, we can see that the Ukrainian positions on the high ground can also be used to support further Ukrainian counteroffensive operations, providing excellent mortar positions and starting positions for drones.

However, Ivanivka is on the same level as the Russian positions east of the river, which means that Ukrainian forces will need to assault on even ground, despite enjoying fire support from the elevation behind the village. After being pushed behind the river, Russia now has the advantage of using the river as a natural defensive barrier, protecting its forces against prospective Ukrainian counterattacks by complicating Ukraine’s capacity to reliably sustain its advancing forces.

Geolocated footage shows how Ukrainian Leopard 1A5 tanks are softening up Russian fortifications by firing their cannons directly into them to destroy the enemy personnel and pin them down while the Ukrainian marines arrive. After the initial raid, the tanks pulled back to the rear to avoid the Russian drones, while the Ukrainian troops started clearing the trenches. Their efforts were supported by a reconnaissance drone, which enabled commanders to monitor the operation in real time and guide the soldiers on the ground, helping them avoid potential ambushes and identify threats not visible from their vantage point. The soldiers maneuvered carefully because the roof of the fortification partially collapsed due to the firepower of the tanks. As the Ukrainian forces descended into the tunnels, they conducted a systematic sweep. As a result of the Ukrainian operation, five Russian soldiers were eliminated, and ten more surrendered, as they realized that no one would help them and they were surrounded. The Russian prisoners of war were subsequently interrogated and escorted to the Ukrainian rear to further increase the exchange fund.

Overall, the Ukrainian counteroffensive efforts appear to be building on the momentum generated by the liberation of Ivanivka, applying sustained pressure on the exposed Russian flank and complicating further Russian attempts to advance toward Novopavlivka. By consolidating more gains and compelling Russian forces to defend a widening front, Ukrainian marines are not only stabilizing the sector but also shaping conditions that will force the Russian command to divert reserves. As the situation evolves, follow-on Ukrainian actions will be influenced by Russia’s ability to reinforce and maintain cohesion. If Russia’s response remains slow, the current Ukrainian posture could open opportunities for deeper tactical exploitation and more advances in this sector.