Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

Back in October, the US sanctioned Lukoil. Then Trump TACOed at the start of this month and unsanctioned their activities outside of Russia (so basically no sanctions). Subsequently, Ukraine has specifically targeted Lukoil storage, port/terminal infrastructure and now oil-drilling platforms. Trump, Witkoff & Co must be the worst wheelers and dealers ever, to find themselves so consistently behind the curve on every aspect of this war.

Whatever's going on behind the closed doors of the "peace negotiations" I'm really pleased the EU are working side-by-side with Ukraine to hammer out a deal. Reading some of the defeatest comments on here (and elsewhere), it seems that there are many, many people who have forgotten - or never knew - how the EU dealt with the last "global superpower" to cause trouble for the bloc, i.e. the UK and their Russia-sponsored Brexit misadventure.

If there's one thing our favourite "unelected bureaucrats" are good at, it's playing the long game, refusing to blink, and stubbornly sticking to a set of non-negotiables until the otherside caves. I reckon Zelenskyy's learnt that when the EU's got your back, it's a hell of a lot easier to put up with the rantings and ravings of cantankerous old men. And from the EU's point of view, having Ukraine as a new member (feck off, Orban and Fico) will more than make up for the departure of the British.

The EU is almost completely free of Russian oil and gas, so are emboldened.

In 20 years we might be completely energy independent hopefully so can give everyone the finger.

The peace deal looks promising insofar as Ukraine agreeing but I've a feeling Putin has no intention of any type of peace deal.

Nothing much really I think? Water is a moderator for nuclear reactions if irc.

Could have dumped some nuclear fuel into the sea.

Given it was blown up very close to the shore, might not be so great for the safe use of that harbour/military base in future!

Reports the US has agreed to submit security guarantees to NATO. What they are we remain to be seen.

BBC report this includes:

• A European led multinational force for Ukraine.
• A US-led ceasefire monitoring mechanism.
• A legally-binding commitment to take measures to restore peace and security in the case of a future armed attack.

However President Zelensky says "we all still have different positions" on territory.

Another humiliating day for putin and the orcs, a submarine lost to a country that has no navy worth speaking about.

Are any US security guarantees trustworthy?

If its ratified by the US Senate it would help. I read earlier that if it was submitted to NATO, this might happen.

My personal opinion is that Putin wants all of Ukraine, and will use diplomacy to delay aid to Ukraine.

A strong majority of Ukrainians — 75% — rejected a proposed peace plan that would involve the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from Donbas, military restrictions, and no concrete security guarantees, according to a new public opinion poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), published on Dec. 15.63% of 547 adults surveyed across the country — a slight increase from 62% in September this year — said they were ready to endure the war "as long as necessary."

Another orc gas pipeline confirmed as destroyed.

The ruzzian collapse is baked in at this stage. We don't know how or when it will happen, but it is inevitable. There's a chance that a ceasefire might actually bring about the end of putler. Their economy is in tatters and will go into recession, a lot of mothers will be asking where their sons are, putler will have to explain why after a million dead he has nothing to show for all the misery he inflicted. Meanwhile you have a massive European army on their border, the exact thing putin said would never happen.

Not publicly available because it's a fiction.

A peace deal would mean a drop in oil and gas prices globally. So that'll screw their economy for a while.

Europe is almost free of Russian oil and gas also and most EU countries have very ambitious renewable targets for next 5 years so we'll never need to do business with them again.

We're very close to global peak oil consumption so I think oil prices will stay low. Definitely the next couple of years will have low prices as there's an oversupply for next couple of years.

EV adoption will take off globally in 2028 I think so the end of oil is nigh.

I don't think a million are dead.

Over a million casualties on the Russian side which is more like 250,000 or 300,000 dead. Maybe less than half that one the Ukraine side.

Bakhmut, Avdiivka, Pokrovsk were meat grinders though.

But if Putin plans to take the fortress belt, it'll take years and definitely a million will die.

But still over a million casualties is huge for modern warfare.

Putin made possibly the worst geopolitical decision in modern history and is too pig headed to accept it and cut his losses.

It's funny that the Russians thought they'd take Kiev in 3 days and the war would be over in a couple of weeks.

Now almost 4 years later and he's only grinding out small victories and struggling to take towns.

WW1 lasted 4 years and 3 months. We're approaching that.

Putin won't agree to (1) and probably not (3) either. So it's DOA. Which is good, as any deal that Putin would accept would effectively mean surrender for Ukraine. The rest is just playacting by the EU and Ukraine to keep Trump as quiet as possible.

They need a proper bargaining chip for Putin. He'll never agree to the above proposals. It's just admitting defeat.

Either carrot or stick.

Maybe persuade India and China to stop buying Russian oil.

The smartest way to pay for Ukraines reconstruction will be a levy placed on russian oil and gas exports - ( how it's enforced is another issue ) , but that has the added benefit of kick starting and modernising Ukraines economy in a massive way , while at the same limiting russia income , and it's ability to rebuild it's military ...