Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

What part of 'Farage and Le Pen getting into power' did you miss? It would mean openly pro-Russian govts in the US, France and the UK, plus Hungary, Slovakia as is already the case (plus possibly the Czech Rep and Romania in the near future). Far from being 'not even remotely likely' it is unfortunately the most likely scenario as things currently stand.

If the US controlled 19% of Iraq or Afghanistan, it would certainly not be portrayed as a victory by Wallace and Daly or anyone else.

Russia saying that demilitarisation of the rest of Donbass would not mean Russian 'police' and National Guard not being there. That's probably why Ukraine reportedly back tracking on withdrawal.

Having Russian security forces there can only mean oppression and atrocities for the hundreds of thousands still living there.

Next French presidential is sooner, 2027 I think

France's presidential election is due in May 2027, which is just over a year away. If the RN wins there'll be an immediate legislative election to secure them a parliamentary majority.

If you think Orban will willingly cede power in a free election next year, and Trump or Vance in 2028, then you're a lot more optimistic than I am.

As for the UK, I don't think Farage is the only person who thinks Lab will struggle to stagger on to 2029.

There's also the AFD in Germany, also due an election by the spring of 2029 at the latest.

None of the above would lift a finger to defend the Baltic states or anywhere else. More likely, they would be passing their intelligence information to the Kremlin. Poland and Scandinavia would be left alone to face the Russians.

Anyone who thinks the above scenario is far fetched is not living in the real world. It may not happen (and I sincerely hope it does not) but we have to consider the possibility that it may.

This needs to be sorted ASAP

Make that one oil and gas production platform and two Orc military cargo vessels hit by Ukraine in the Caspian sea.

France's presidential election is due in May 2027, which is just over a year away. If the RN wins there'll be an immediate legislative election to secure them a parliamentary majority.

That’s a big “if” right there. There is nothing indicating they have more chances to win at the next election.

If RN dont control the parliament then they might be forced to appoint a PM from the Establishment parties. The latest polls I saw on wikipedia from October 2025 show RN and allies on only around 35%.

Sterling work here by these sleuths -

Seven German journalism students tracked Russian-crewed freighters lurking off the Dutch and German coast—and connected them to drone swarms over military bases.

Let me walk you through what Michèle Borcherding, Clara Veihelmann, Luca-Marie Hoffmann, Julius Nieweler, Tobias Wellnitz, Sergen Kaya, and Clemens Justus pulled off.

Just so you know, I’m familiar with them. I did a long OSINT training with them in Berlin. I can tell you: they went far beyond anything I taught them. The physical verification alone—chasing a ship across France, the Netherlands, and Belgium—that’s not something you learn in a classroom.

They Droned Back - Digital Digging with Henk van Ess

It's telling that the authorities don't want this sort of stuff be made public. Can't be highlighting that Russia is at war with the rest of Europe now and have people actually wake up.

Coutesy of Paul Murphy via a post on FB, where he said:

"The propaganda campaign designed to scare people into supporting an end to neutrality and increasing military spending is going into overdrive. There is a new arms race taking place globally. The government wants us to join in. We should instead defend our neutrality."

https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/2025/12/12/stephen-collins-if-russia-decides-to-attack-the-eu-irelands-wide-open-back-door-may-give-it-a-way-in/

BYLINE IS - We need to stand up to a vocal lobby who claim to be protecting Irish neutrality but will leave the country defenceless

"Ireland is finally waking up to the need to take the country’s defence seriously. Vladimir Putin’s threat to attack the EU and the mysterious arrival of drones off the Dublin coast during Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy’s visit has made it clear that our threadbare neutrality provides no immunity from aggression.

The question now is obvious: what is to be done? The easy answer is that we need to focus on cyber security and invest in drone technology. While that is necessary, it will merely scratch the surface. The harsh reality is that we have to prepare for every contingency, no matter how far-fetched it might seem.

For instance, what would happen if a planeload or two of Russian paratroopers landed at Shannon and took over the airport? At our current level of preparedness, there is little or nothing we could do to defend ourselves. We would have to ask for help from our fellow EU member states, or, more likely, Britain."

For anyone that didn't read the linked article. At the end it also gives info on how to track these same ships if you want using websites like - MarineTraffic.com and VesselFinder.com —

One of the vessels

HAV Snapper identifiers for tracking:

• IMO: 9001813

• MMSI: 311014800

• Call sign: C6XN4

• Flag: Bahamas

• AIS transponder: Class A

It's currently sitting about a mile off the Greek coast.

Heard Paul Murphy on Radio 1 the other evening about this and he came across very poorly despite his insistence that he nor his party fly any flag for Russia.

Basically - there's zero need for Ireland to invest in military any further. It's all Western propaganda driving an arms race to fatten the pockets of the military industrial complex. There's no danger at all to Ireland, no danger to the cables off the West coast, but then bizarrely said "I'm not saying Russia couldn't do that but"…..and then descending into waffle about Europe being the problem.

Zero acknowledgement of the fact that the "arms race" is Europe desperately trying to cobble together a half-functional military in light of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and regular threatening of Europe, and decades of low investment, not to mention Trump's withdrawal as a reliable ally.

It baffles me that that type of person can't seem to accept the simple rationality of re-arming being an entirely logical response to a huge military invading a part of Europe and threatening to annhiliate the rest.

And specifically in relation to Ireland, it's about being able to effectively police our airspace, waters, etc against incursions, not a full blown Red Dawn invasion they push as a strawman illogical reason against investment in defence.

They also say "but we've a housing crisis, how can we invest in defence", which is about the stupidest argument I ever heard. Alright, there's a housing crisis - which we know can't be solved just by throwing money at it but that aside - don't you think there's like a million other areas of the budget we could strip money from a lot easier, if you think pure money can solve the housing crisis?

Yet you don't really hear them arguing that money invested in tonnes of other technically non-essential sectors should be stripped away to go into housing.

It's so stupid, because if we suddenly invested heavily in the Gardaí nobody would be saying we were fattening the pockets of the industries that supply policing equipment. If we invest heavily in our health service nobody says we're enriching the "health industrial complex".

It's just such a crazy, anti-West crank position to take - and they can't put forward the vaguest, logical alternative to investment in defence in light of what Russia has done and is doing, except vague waffling about "talks and dialogue", which of course textbooks through history have proven famously effective with tinpot dictators.

It would be wonderful if we lived in Utopia where militaries were redundant but that is not compatiable with reality.

To be fair I can't remember the name of the presenter on Radio 1 but she really wasn't having any of it.

The final curtain for Rachmaninov.

Handy reference card for the next Paul Murphy interview (source: reddit).

Funny enough he hit on several on those cards that I didn't mention, though I didn't hear the full interview as I was in the car when I switched to it, mid-interview.

NATO expansion is one, but he also described the situation as "NATO warmongering" and argued that Ireland investing in defence was an inevitable slope to abandoning neutrality.