Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cd6x3vv7y60o

More on the positive developments around Pokrovsk.

Thing to watch from this point out though is that the Russian Economy is likely going to be heading towards a tipping point in the near future, the cracks are really beginning to show in terms of economic damage and with Ukraine subjecting the Vatnik Degenerates to daily kinetic sanctions on their refineries there's going to come a point in which that damage is going to set off a cascading wave of failures across the Russian Economy. Already there's reports of parts of Russia not able to afford to pay the families of those they foolishly threw into the meat grinder. Russian Railways is risking the worst year of operation in history and the real reason why Trump and his degenerates are getting uppity lately is because Russia could be at serious risk of collapse and if it happens there goes their kickbacks and future bribes from their Vatnik enablers too.

If Ukraine can hold on another couple of years, Russia will destroy itself.

Trump's term is up in November 2028, so hopefully the next president will be more supportive of them.

I think oil prices will steadily decline over the next decade also.

China's reached peak oil consumption and demand will begin to drop from now on.

It's clear as day that Putin has all his chips on 1) China making sure that he stays in power and Russia gets what it needs to stay afloat, 2) Trump getting him the results he needs in Ukraine, and 4) a post conflict alliance of Russia, China, India and the US steam rolling Europe economically and wrecking havoc socially.

Putin doesn't care about the 1,000,000+ dead and injured Russians. He doesn't care about how the tanking economy is hitting the serfs and the republics hard. He doesn't care about the current economic situation. He's gambling on Strong Men helping each other out and the cash flowing like never before once the Europeans are put back in their box.

It's still very much in the balance which was things will go, no matter how s**t the Russian economy is performing right now. The central question will simply be - when Trump betrays democracy will the Europeans have it within themselves to get the job done in Ukraine and out manoeuvre Trump for the next 3 years?

The next US Presidential election is absolutely critical. If the US voters double down on their regressive, ultra conservative and anti democratic choices, electing someone like Vance, then the globe is in big trouble. If they recognise the harm they've caused over the past 10 years and back a progressive candidate like Newsom, there is hope.

My hunch is that the US have told them that if they start causing havoc on the high seas, sinking tankers, that's the end of US support. Otherwise I'm pretty sure they'd have been doing it long ago.

But is there a tipping point which is enough to actually end the war?

Take North Korea as an example, they have a tiny economy with extreme poverty and starvation - but yet still put whatever they do have into military, produce missiles etc.

We know that Putin is an admirer of North Korea, so it's quite plausible he would bring Russia to a similar place. He's already cutting social programs, while hospitals and other infrastructure are in disrepair etc. The elite will still send their children to be educated and live overseas - so no skin off their nose.

North Korea is also hugely reliant on China, which Russia seems to be aiming for…

Right, but it is contained largely to Ukraine and Russia.

We don't want an oil spill off the Irish coast for example. Turkey weren't pleased when they hit tankers in the Black sea.

Absolutely.

To not be in NATO, and also unable to defend ourselves, is negligence for a rich country like Ireland. As an island we should have strong naval capabilities.

Not sure anyone in the international community expects Ireland to join NATO. Calls for it usually come from hawkish, militaristic types (invariably right wing) who don't even like Ireland as a country.

Besides, it would probably never get past an Irish referendum on the issue.

The support that has kept them in the war for most of the last 4 years, much and all as we like to scoff at the yanks. Otherwise what's all the fuss about? It's funny being glib, but that's the reality of the situation. There's a reason VZ and the Europeans are doffing the cap to Trump every time he sneezes.

We've no idea how much support they've given in terms of intelligence.