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General British politics discussion thread

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    You'd be better off. I didn't link it as I didn't want to send clicks that way.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Someone could start a parody podcast with the lettuce.

    Although Lizzie's show will never be popular enough for a parody to make sense.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 416 ✭✭midlander12


    There may of course, be tactical voting by Tory voters for Reform as well. However, that's by the by, and your overall point stands up well.

    I recently had a look at one of those polls projecting an overall 'majority' for Reform. It's included in this Guardian article:-

    Who supports Reform and why? The charts that show who favours Farage’s party | Reform UK | The Guardian

    Quite honestly, I thought it was the most amateur effort I had ever seen. They have Reform winning a clatter of seats on 28-30% of the vote, in places like Brighton and Canterbury. That's not going to happen. There will be massive tactical voting between Lib Dem, Green and Lab voters in middle-class areas like that to keep Farage out. I agree Reform will clean up in the north-east and the likes of East Anglia, the East and maybe the West Midlands, Essex and Kent, but that's not going to be enough. Even in 2024, with only 34% of the national vote, Lab won only a handful of seats with less than 34-35% of the vote. Large tracts of the south and south-west returned hardly any Lab MP's and elected over 70 LD's instead. Reform is having similar problems making progress in these areas, there's no evidence they've made any breakthrough in London either and their 20% or so in Scotland probably isn't going to nett them a single seat in a FPTP election.

    Logically one would expect the Tories to at least cling onto what they held in 2024, but they retained some seats with tiny pluralities which would be very vulnerable to Reform taking even a handful of votes off them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    As others have said, a lot can happen between now and 2029 when the next UK election is due to be held.

    One other factor that I think will influence the UK election at that time is what happens across the water in the US both in the midterms next year and in the presidential election of 2028.

    If conservative candidates who have pushed a lot of the culture war narrative (nationalism/anti-immigration etc) lose, then that will influence how candidates in the UK frame their manifestos. This is particularly the case with respect to the US presidential election which has been fought as culture wars by Trump for the last 3 elections.

    And aside from that angle, if the far right conservative sector is in power in the US then they will put their finger on the scales of the UK election. We've seen Trump attempt (and succeed to some degree) to do this in other countries and while it might be not as obvious if he is not involved, it is still something that now is likely to happen. We saw with JD Vance targeting recent EU more liberal ideologies in his speech earlier this year and the recent uncovering of the new US international diplomacy strategy absolutely suggests that they would like to see a very right wing government in the UK. And finally, with respect to this angle, Elon Musk already tried to influence things in the UK in bickering with Nigel Farage and again, he is very capable of getting involved in a negative way to again influence the outcome.

    Right now, in late 2025, I expect the outcome of a 2029 UK election will see many parties with enough seats to feel they can influence the forming of a government and the outcome of that could see Reform/Tories trying to make it happen when on the other side Labour/The Lib Dems/The Greens on the other with the outcome being a coalition government. Whether it is Left or Right leaning, remains to be seen.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 416 ✭✭midlander12


    Oh bless……Badenoch apparently admitting Brexit was a mistake, or at least a 'shock'. Who knew?

    Badenoch admits Brexit has damaged economy as she announces plan to review benefits system – UK politics live

    Adam Smith once said, “There is a lot of ruin in a nation.”

    For all that is going wrong now, and let’s be honest has gone wrong in the past, nations can absorb shocks.

    The financial crisis, Brexit, Covid.

    Countries with strong institutions and productive people do not collapse overnight.

    Even foolish policies take time to do real, lasting damage.

    A crisis is serious, but it is not fatal unless governments keep repeating the mistakes.

    We made mistakes in government, but we have learned from them.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I found this very interesting when Farage made these comments below.

    For me, at that time, he had realised the difficulty of achieving a positive outcome of Brexit and so he suggested this.

    It was one of the failures of Corbyn as the opposition leader at the time that he didn't take this point and hammer it in to the 2019 election that Brexit was going to be a failure. Of course he himself wasn't a fan of Europe and didn't possess the ability to advocate for a version of membership that would ultimately have been beneficial for the country while being palatable to his own ideology.

    It's baffling to think that the chief architect of the most negatively impact step the UK took since WW2 is the current favourite to be their next PM. And at this point, virtually all the leaders of all the parties acknowledge that it was a bad idea and yet no one is advocating to correct that misstep.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 416 ✭✭midlander12


    It was more than a failure in Corbyn's part - it was an abject dereliction of duty, born out of his innate dislike for the EU or indeed anything that did not fit in with his Socialist Worker/Militant/Momentum world view. I remember the late John Le Carre speaking on RTE about it along the lines that Corbyn 'must have a sore posterior from all that sitting on the fence'.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Of all the leaders in and around Number 10 in the last ten years (and this includes Corbyn and Farage) given they were/are a good election from getting the keys, I'd say Theresa May was the only one who appeared to be acting as the leader of the country and what she thought were it's bests interests rather than her own specific motivation.

    I remember throughout the negotiation of Article 50, we said on here that she would be ganged up on and discarded as soon as the vultures thought the dirty work had been done, and so it played out.

    She had her failings, she wasn't necessarily a motivator of others, but she took the essence of her role seriously.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    It's worse than this. Tim Shipman's book details how Corbyn and his office, particularly one Seumas Milne, deliberately sabotaged the Labour Remain campaign under Alan Johnson. He was also the first person to call for the triggering of Article 50.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Ya she was the normal type of useless whereas the other Tory PMs recently were the crazy lunatic type of useless.

    I would put Starmer in the same category as her. I don't think he has any personal agenda. In fact his problem is he has none whatsoever.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 416 ✭✭midlander12




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 416 ✭✭midlander12


    And she put the boot into that noxious twit Johnson over Partygate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    I think Starmer has allowed himself to be directed by pro-Israeli influences and so I dont consider him to be acting in the genuine best interests of the people of the UK.

    Outside of that, he has shown more of an absence of fortitude rather than motivated by the common good. He doesnt seem to own any strategic narrative, rather he just defends it. He's like someone who can clock out and leave the job behind him quite easily every evening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Agreed. He was an enthusiastic defender of Stalinism.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,452 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    He's not a natural politician and wasn't even a member of the Labour Party ten years ago.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,134 ✭✭✭Randycove


    in what way is he being directed by pro Israeli influences? From what I can see he is treading a very thin line between protecting the UKs interests and putting pressure on Israel.

    at the moment there seems to be a coalition of anti Jewish conspiracy theorists (the Jewish Illuminati is taking over the world types) the hard left corbynites/Galloway supporters (don’t forget the amount of vitriol directed towards labour candidates, particularly women, at the last election) and Sinn Fein supporter who are desperate to ensure any blame around this genocide can be put on the British.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    If he was being controlled by Israel, he wouldn't have formally recognised the Palestinian state. I don't see how these kinds of conspiracy theories help anyone.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    IsrealI genocide is only one thing that's going on in government right now.

    It in no way explains why he has no core beliefs about all the other things the government has to deal with. He was off attacking ECHR again to placate the far right in an attempt he claims will tackle the far right. Ya tackle them by doing everything they want.

    He either believes what he says in which case he is a horrible cnt or he doesn't believe it and has no spine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,169 ✭✭✭✭A Dub in Glasgo


    Starmer and most of his cabinet were at an Israeli front group slap up the other day so of course they are 'independent' observers of the ongoing genocide. A parliamentarian gets jail time for pushing Russian propaganda and the UK govt push Israeli propaganda with impunity.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,134 ✭✭✭Randycove


    from the speach reeves gave:

    Ceasefire and reconstruction

    Over the past two years, the actions of the Israeli government are not and must not be beyond criticism.

    This Labour government has not shied away from that.

    The scenes from Gaza on our televisions are shocking and heart-breaking.

    No parent doesn’t feel pain and empathy when they see other people’s children suffering. 

    The ceasefire agreed in October has provided a glimmer of hope.

    The joy and relief we all felt when we saw the hostages back home in Israel with their families and loved ones.

    The much-needed space to get more aid flowing into Gaza to meet the plight of its people.

    And the opportunity to begin the process of reconstruction. 

    As the Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary have said, Britain will work with our international partners, as well as with private sector and international development finance and financiers, to support the challenge of reconstruction in Gaza.

    The challenge is huge:

    Rubble must be cleared, infrastructure repaired, healthcare restored and homes rebuilt.

    But it is a challenge the international community must meet if the people of Gaza are to live in the dignity, safety and security to which they have every right.

    That requires the Israeli government to lift all  restrictions on the flow of humanitarian assistance.

    And that requires – as this Government and our allies have repeatedly said – that Hamas is disarmed and plays no part in the future governance of the state of Palestine.

    It also demands that the family of Ran Gvili, waiting almost 800 days for his return from Gaza so that they can lay him to rest and begin to grieve, are made to wait no longer.

    We must bring the hostages home – every last one



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 33,448 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    There is no ceasefire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,452 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    That is mind boggling considering there is an international arrest warrant out for Netanyahu and the country is being investigated by the ICC for genocide and war crimes. I'm not sure even Nigel Farage would show up at such a hideous and grotesque event.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    in what way is he being directed by pro Israeli influences?

    image.png

    From what I can see he is treading a very thin line between protecting the UKs interests and putting pressure on Israel.

    I don't think that the proscribing of Palestine Action as a terrorist group was protecting the UK's interests, unless you feel that permitting Israel to proceed with its actions on Gaza without protests being held in the UK against those actions is to the benefit of the UK, which I don't.

    And lying in Parliament about the reason behind the banning of away fans at an Aston Villa match and pushing the police to reverse their guidance which was made on security grounds was most definitely not in the UK's interests.

    The recognition of Palestine is little more than empty words as long as the UK supported Israel's genocide both in its delivery of intelligence and provision of equipment.

    The extent to which the UK government has sought to curb protests supporting Palestine are well documented. It is a fact that the vast majority of them were very well attended and proceeded without incident, and given the deep integration between Israeli officials and UK members of parliament on both sides of the aisle, it is not a conspiracy theory to draw conclusions as to why the government has acted as it has done. It actively took steps to silence voices calling for Israel to stop committing a genocide on Palestine. All of these are points are facts, not theories.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    We must bring the hostages home – every last one

    Do you think she was referring to the thousands of Palestinians held without charge in Israeli detention centres? What do you call someone being held against their will while not being charged?

    For over 2 years now we've watched UK (and US/German/French/UK etc) officials speak empty words as Reeves has done above that Israel flat out ignores and yet no action is taken to hold them to account.

    It is despicable and is infinitely worse than Chamberlains attempted appeasement of Hitler prior to the outset of WW2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    I'm well aware. However, it's perfectly possible to criticise the UK's policing of the protests without the Jewish puppet trope. I've repeatedly stated that I consider the Metropolitan Police to be a thoroughly repugnant entity and I say that as a Londoner.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    without the Jewish puppet trope

    As long as Israel is directly funding UK politicians and those politicians are acting and speaking as they are while Israel continues its actions in Palestine, it is no trope.

    That reality has to be accepted by a lot of people who need to examine their conscience.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Yes it is. I'm almost shocked that I have to explain this.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    Try and explain it so instead of just insisting that that is the case.

    And before you start, you and another poster brought the term "Jew/Jewish" in to the conversation so let me just remind you that I am speaking specifically about Israeli individuals, organisations, officials and the state.

    I am not referring to, nor do I care about the Jewish religion outside from being disgusted at it being used to absolve people of their words and actions.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 44,370 ✭✭✭✭ancapailldorcha


    Once again, you've resorted to lies. I'm not wasting any more time on this. I have no interest in being judged morally inferior by someone who supports a man who describes murderers as his friends.

    The foreigner residing among you must be treated as your native-born. Love them as yourself, for you were foreigners in Egypt. I am the LORD your God.

    Leviticus 19:34



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 24,216 ✭✭✭✭Tell me how


    You don't have to explain why you feel holding elected officials to account for their actions in supporting those who donated to them, but that's twice now in the past week or so you've made pretty black and white statements in this thread but then declined to back them up when challenged on them. Noted.



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