Private Group for paid up members of Boards.ie. Join the club.
Charts ( up to T120) Winter 2025/2026 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
-
30-11-2025 06:30PM#1
Mod Note:This thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Winter 2025/2026.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thank you.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The opening week of December is going to be mild, often wet and sometimes windy. The conveyer belt is well and truly in business and is likely to be in business for the next couple of weeks at the very least.
A very wet week particularly in western areas with close to 70mm of rainfall possible over the next 5 days.
5
Comments
-
-
-
Models been showing energy all right over the last few days knocking about but on and off for windy conditions , more off than on. ECM, ARPEGE, GEM all showing stormy potential this evening for around later Mon/ Tues , ACCESS-G stormy to a lesser extent being very strong mostly off shore / coastal, UKMO a strong system and rubbing off the S coasts and tracking into the UK ,ICON not defined as the others but blustery and GFS has nothing. So would think there is a leaning towards some strong wind conditions near or over parts of Ireland later Mon into Tues but a lot of uncertainty with track and strength .
9 -
-
Met office have released this graphic in relation to the potential storm for Tuesday/ Wednesday
Seem like the Gfs solution which gave southern parts of the Uk a glancing blow and leaving us stormless isn’t favoured at the moment
Ecm stays off the northwest with the strongest winds
7 -
Advertisement
-
Models differing some bit still but there is a leaning towards a strong windy spell being possible I think for some part of the country. Has the look of being a possible named storm but not definite.
ECM very strong up along the Western side of the country, UKMO that bit further off the NW keeping the strongest winds to the coast, ACCESS-G stormy winds crossing Ireland , ARPEGE similar o ACCESS-G across Ireland, GFS taking the route more Easterly and not yet as developed as the other models as is ICON but it is blustery to strong winds in parts .
I think the Met Office probability charts posted by Ros4Sam24 are still roughly the same although maybe the odds moving up through Ireland have increased a bit and lessened further East, will be interesting to see them tomorrow if they post them. Plenty of rain from the system as well, models currently showing S, S/W and W counties with the most rainfall but wet across the whole country possible. Bit to go yet for the models to align more.
5 -
To quote Met Eireann ' Overview: Overall unsettled with rain, showers and the potential for strong winds at times. An unusual amount of uncertainty in the details from Monday night onwards.'
Models very unreliable even at this late stage re Mon night through Tues, ECM has totally changed track, depth and intensity, and now looking similar to the GFS in its original track ( had looked quite strong on an earlier run ) with the center of a now less deep area of LP moving up from the S over Ireland keeping the strongest winds off the SE/ E.
ARPEGE and ICON looking quite similar keeping the center of deeper area of LP off the W so brining stronger winds up over Ireland , not storm force on these charts for Ireland but maybe for Scotland.
UKMO further off the W and stormy up along Atlantic counties but too far out on its own at this stage.
GEM and ACCESS-G keeping the center tracking off the W , NW and still looking strong over parts of Ireland.
So still potential for strong or stormy winds but huge uncertainty when ECM and GFS looking like that.
More speculation for potential strong winds around Thurs but that is still over +120hrs so best kept in FI thread for now.
ECM 06Z just coming out and moving the center up along the W coasts now, a bit deeper than earlier run and a bit windier over Ireland but nothing much, flabby looking on this run but is that the beginning of a shift more in line with earlier runs and towards the others ??
Always hard to predict when being powered up by a fast jet, could be harmless to powerful , just no way of knowing for sure, right down to the wire with this one.
7 -
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
Models in general now favouring keeping the center of the deepening storm passing up off the W, NW coasts, very deep from the ECM getting down to 954hPa well off the NW , In general models showing gales along coastal areas, windy overland for a time, some models look quite windy over parts of Ireland but nothing definite yet . GFS still not developing it as much as the other models and keeping the winds more along the S, SE coasts and much of the winds off shore.
Looks breezy and very wet later Mon night ahead of the strong winds.
4 -
-
-
-
-
Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1914
Forecast models remain divided on the likely impact of a developing weather system due on Tuesday morning. The latest Arpege runs have shifted the risk towards the west and northwest, a familiar track for winter storms in Ireland. The GFS model, however, continues to project the strongest winds in the far southeast.
Such a marked disparity between the two models at 72 hours out is unusual. The system has yet to fully form and much remains uncertain.
Other models suggest Tuesday may bring little more than a blustery, wet day. In its Saturday evening update Met Éireann said Tuesday will bring “fresh to strong and gusty southwesterly winds, with gales or strong gales possible near western and northwestern coasts.”
The most likely outcome is that strong winds will develop in the far southwest before daybreak on Tuesday, with a rapidly deepening system tracking quickly north‑north‑east off Ireland’s west coast. Based on an assessment of all weather models, the strongest winds are expected in the west and northwest, with Valentia in Kerry, Mace Head in Galway, Belmullet in Mayo and Malin Head in Donegal likely to report the highest gusts.
Post edited by WolfeEire on5 -
-
-
-
-
Advertisement
-
-
-
-
From Met Eireann
The system hasn’t developed yet (as of Sunday afternoon). Confidence remains moderate regarding the exact track and intensity of the system;
small shifts will influence the severity of impacts
. A slight shift in the system’s path could influence peak wind gusts, timing of strongest winds, and the extent of coastal impacts. Met Éireann will continue to monitor the system closely and update warnings as required.
3 -
-
Meteorologist's CommentaryStrong winds and heavy rain will affect Ireland on the night of Monday 8th December and during Tuesday 9th December
Issued on 7th December 2025, valid until further notice
A deepening Atlantic low-pressure system will impact Ireland on the night of Monday 8th December and during Tuesday 9th.
Met Éireann is closely monitoring a developing Atlantic system with the potential to bring very strong winds, high coastal water levels, and periods of heavy rainfall to Ireland from late Monday night (8th December) through Tuesday (9th December).
After a week of persistent rain, soils across the country are already highly saturated and many rivers are approaching bank-full conditions, so any additional rainfall is likely to result in surface and river flooding on Tuesday and possibly during following days.
Meteorologist Matthew Martin, says:
“It’s looking increasing likely that Ireland will experience some very inclement weather from Monday night and through Tuesday. A low-pressure system in the Atlantic is going to deepen fairly rapidly as it approaches the country on Monday night. Initially there will be a spell of heavy rain before a swathe of very strong winds develop. There remains a good deal of uncertainty in the track and intensity of the system, but it has the potential to be an impactful event. Given its evolving nature, we have issued a yellow wind warning for the entire country which will be updated when certainty increases, as well as yellow rainfall warnings for certain areas, and we encourage everyone to check in regularly with Met Éireann’s forecasts and warnings.Flooding impacts are expected as the rain will fall on already saturated ground and many rivers are currently approaching bank full conditions. We are in a period of high astronomical tides, which will coincide with the strong, potentially onshore winds, so coastal flooding is likely. We echo the well-known advice of the Irish Coast Guard: “Stay Back, Stay High, Stay Dry”.
The high tides will prevent the rivers from discharging to the sea, significantly increasing the risk of upstream flooding along low-lying areas. People should refer to the guidance of their local authorities and emergency responders in their area.”
METEOROLOGICAL SITUATION
A deepening Atlantic depression is forecast to track close to Ireland on Monday night and Tuesday.Southerly winds ahead of the system will strengthen on Monday night, with periods of severe wind gusts possible, especially near exposed Atlantic coasts. The strong winds will continue through Tuesday, veering southwest to west in direction during the day. Heavy rainfall late Monday into Tuesday morning will fall over ground that is already water-logged, increasing runoff and river response times.
The system hasn’t developed yet (as of Sunday afternoon). Confidence remains moderate regarding the exact track and intensity of the system; small shifts will influence the severity of impacts. A slight shift in the system’s path could influence peak wind gusts, timing of strongest winds, and the extent of coastal impacts. Met Éireann will continue to monitor the system closely and update warnings as required.
1 -
Latest ECM stronger then earlier runs with widespread gusts up to 90km/h overland , in general getting up to 100 /110 along coastal fringes and exposed headlands , maybe a bit more along Mayo /Donegal.
Even at this stage some difference in the models, GFS about the weakest of the lot and ICON hasn't made much of it either. At the other end of the scale the UKMO is full on storm and it is showing the highest wind speeds but at this stage a bit too far out in front, French models strong as is GEM and ACCESS G , HARMONIE Hi Res strong for a time as it moves up along the Atlantic coastal counties. Nothing definite, ECM could get a bit stronger. AARPEGE might be a good average at this stage from the European models ,hasn't deviated much over previous runs.
Very heavy rain Mon night into Tues ahead of the storm storm system might prove a bit problematic along Southern counties, just coming off Spring tides.
6 -
-
-
Advertisement
-
