Tesla Talk 2

unkel · 05-12-2025 05:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124045160#Comment_124045160

Ah ok, we shall see. He has been ridiculously optimistic about timelines in the past, but has eventually delivered on a lot of promises

Red Silurian · 10-12-2025 01:31PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124044437#Comment_124044437

Regarding the AP, I'm fairly sure the standard Model Y has this and all the other software and hardware features of the premium model.

I think Tesla have realised they can strip the cars down to save costs to then sell more and increase the number of physical cars on the road that they can sell FSD and Advanced AP software to. Not sure if it's a winner by comparison to their older mantra of building every car the same but time will tell. Even if only 1% of drivers buy the FSD software, having 10,000 cars sold instead of 1,000 makes a huge difference in finances

unkel · 10-12-2025 06:14PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124059735#Comment_124059735

Musk just announced all Tesla drivers and Tesla passengers will be removed from robotaxis, followed by an increase of robotaxi fleet size by "an order of magnitude" within about 3 months

Of course he is always ludicrously optimistic, but I guess you and the other usual suspects in here will keep saying it will never happen. And then quietly not mention anything about it again when it eventually does happen 😂

josip · 10-12-2025 06:19PM

Imagine the fun the kids will have when FSD comes in. Standing on the kerb waiting for a Tesla to come along. Hold…. hold…hold…. and then when the Tesla is 30m away, to put a foot on the road and watch the Tesla drop the anchors. Every single time.

mfceiling · 11-12-2025 08:06AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124059206#Comment_124059206

I also think that almost every Tesla sold is a revenue stream from the monthly subscription for Maps, Spotify etc.

Maybe it isn't a huge amount per vehicle, but when you add it up over thousands of vehicles it suddenly becomes a decent amount of guaranteed money every single month.

zg3409 · 11-12-2025 09:13AM

A friend was in Austin last week, on a push bike, stopped at a red light even though he knew he could turn right on red. A wamo came along and bumped his rear tyre. The waymo stopped and sounded an alert it had been in an accident, he cycled off, but even with all their tech in daytime they still miss static objects right in front of them. Thankfully it was at a junction where the car was going slow.

Red Silurian · 11-12-2025 09:51AM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124061222#Comment_124061222

Yeah even if their profit on it is quite low the amount of users will increase. The superchargers as well is a comfortable money maker I'd imagine

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124061303#Comment_124061303

The tesla software is much more sensitive than that. I was driving on autosteer the other night, weather was wet and windy, and the car came to a sudden abrupt slowdown because a cyclist was in front of me… The cyclist was almost invisible because he was wearing dark clothes but the car saw him

In general thought the US is not a good representation of where road safety should be

MojoMaker · 11-12-2025 12:13PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124060056#Comment_124060056

You'd hope a human driver would do exactly the same thing, no?

If they could put their phone down quick enough to react of course.

josip · 11-12-2025 01:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124061781#Comment_124061781

I think a human driver at this point in time will be able to read a situation like this better than an FSD car will initially.

For example if it's a mixed group of people at a natural crossing point then there's a high likelihood it's a genuine attempt to cross a road. But if it's a bunch of 12 year old boys and they're all watching the cars approaching and laughing and they've been doing the same thing all week, then I'll hover but won't brake. You can pick up a lot from body language and facial expressions. Very niche case and not a criticism of FSD. Just wish I was 12 years old again so that I could try it out :)

yermanthere · 11-12-2025 05:57PM

Looking at reviews of M3 standard, and comparing Irish pricing of Y standard.

I'm thinking 36-36.5 will be price for M3 standard here. Similar range to existing rwd/base, with some stuff removed to value of a couple of grand.

So that would point to removal of rwd standard range too, like they've done in model Y. 3 range would be Standard - Long range- Performance.

Cyrus · 11-12-2025 05:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124062715#Comment_124062715

the 3 is a lot less stripped out than the Y from what i have seen so maybe an easier decision to go with the cheaper one.

unkel · 11-12-2025 05:59PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124062715#Comment_124062715

Must be cheaper than that, sure the current Model 3 RWD is €37k on the road here. I expect it to be €33-34k

MojoMaker · 11-12-2025 06:06PM

Yes and a majority of buyers will be carrying a referral credit which may flex in and out, reducing that headline figure even more. The drop in the US was $6K. I can see this M3 standard coming in at 33K.

yermanthere · 11-12-2025 06:26PM

Well we would all love that. New ev with range for 33.5k? Sweet.

Didn't realize current start price was 37.5, so I'll go with 35 for standard.

We shall all see, and I hope I'm wrong and others are right. That car would sell, every taxi will be one. And how would Kia/VW/skoda/Toyota compete? Their bigger range cars are 42 grand.

Gumbo · 11-12-2025 06:28PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124062791#Comment_124062791

The legacies will rely on the traditional sales process of people going to them to trade in and buy in the traditional sense.

corcaigh07 · 11-12-2025 08:10PM

Judging by the Y standard pricing and the fact it’s not as stripped out, I’d be surprised if it’s much less than 35k.

unkel · 12-12-2025 12:16AM

CEO of Xpeng (part owned by VW) just said Tesla FSD 14.2 is "near level 4 autonomy". After multi hour drive in it (including robotaxi software)

Make of that what you will. Personally I put a higher value on that statement than on that of some of the nay sayers and "industry experts" in here that keep repeating it will never happen with the hardware that Tesla uses, no lidar, etc.

And before anyone mentions it, yes, the Xpeng CEO has the same views (pardon the punch) as the Tesla CEO: vision only is sufficient for self driving to be demonstrably safer than humans

I'll be having a look at it for myself in the next few days on the continent. Well, unfortunately it is an older version 14.1 adjusted to please some European regulators, with a Tesla employee sitting in the drivers seat with their hands near the steering wheel. But should give a good idea of the capabilities. Will report back here if anyone is interested

ELM327 · 12-12-2025 12:40PM

I really do think that the tesla product (and xpeng apparently, not surprising since they were founded as a copy paste of tesla) will be a pareto. Cover 80% (or even 95-99%) of situations reliably but not ever get to the 100%.

Nothing, not even waymo with over a decade of investment, and lidar radar and vision, is at that today.

I do think it is likely that some geofenced b*stardised version of FSD will be released eventually that allows some hands off driving on known roads but there is not going to be a proper FSD (ie no driver required, no steering wheel, insurance provided by OEM, I can legally sit in the car as the only occupant and be drunk) in the next 5 years.

2035-2050 will be a big question mark, assuming all the bans on ICE etc are postponed/canceled as they should be, where does that leave EV and by association FSD and FSD like products.

Please don't mistake my critical commentary as anti-fsd. I'm not, I'm quite for it, but I am more realistic than some who either have too much hope or who have drank the coolade!

unkel · 12-12-2025 01:23PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064355#Comment_124064355

What is your definition of cover x% of situations reliably? What do you mean by cover maybe 99% of situations reliably but never 100%? Do humans cover 100% of situations reliably?

The logical error most people make is that FSD does not need to be perfect and never ever cause accidents or kill anyone. That is not realistic, it will kill people. All it needs to do is be safer than humans

And before you know it, insurance will be considerably cheaper if you have FSD, and there will be more and more pressure to make FSD mandatory. Am I drinking the koolade? I don't think so. It is already happening:

Opinion | The Medical Case for Self-Driving Cars - The New York Times

My biggest fear in this is that we won't be allowed to drive our own cars anymore at some stage…

liamog · 12-12-2025 01:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064487#Comment_124064487

I think FSD sold to a consumer as a vehicle with no steering wheel, a manufacturer assuming liability, and usable by it's owner without any responsibility will never happen. It's not the technology that's the problem or the cost of the liability.

Why would I make something like that and let you buy it off me? I can make much more money off you by allowing you to pay for journeys, or even allowing you to pay per month for a dedicated vehicle that the operator still owns but you as an individual have sole use of.
Think of it like paying for AWS Compute. You can do pay per trip (robotaxi) or pay a higher fee for a reserved vehicle that you use in pretty the same way as the car you currently own today.

Not owning the vehicle in any way really simplifies the insurance situation, and I could see how that very quickly turns to lobbying to ban consumer operated vehicles from the roads, safety will be the excuse, but the real reason will be to force more consumers to purchase the services.

josip · 12-12-2025 01:47PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064487#Comment_124064487

I agree that FSD doesn't need to be perfect. But I disagree that i needs to be just a bit safer than humans to triumph. It needs to be a lot safer to convince the humans to hand over control. Humans are going to overestimate their own abilities and the car companies that are not pursuing FSD will spread FUD about it, the same way that the Petro Companies spread FUD about EVs.

The airline industry is the one to refer to. Way safer than driving but the airlines have known since the 70s that if plane crashes/deaths were on a par with the motor industry, nobody would fly. So they set a very high bar for themselves.

unkel · 12-12-2025 02:35PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064557#Comment_124064557

Agreed, I would expect if / when Tesla make it to L4 or L5 that you won't be able to outright buy a lifetime use of it for a mere €7500. Probably not at all. Or it would only work if the owner is in the car, or something like that

But all current owners of FSD will have it forever though. And that is already about a million cars. Basically a free robotaxi license 😂

unkel · 12-12-2025 02:38PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064565#Comment_124064565

Of course. It needs to be magnitudes safer than humans before it will get acceptance. But we really are not far off from that, probably already there. See the figures quoted for Waymo in that NYT piece

ELM327 · 12-12-2025 03:45PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124064487#Comment_124064487

Perfect in this instance means what I said above, where the car has no driver and is legally allowed to drive itself as such with no liability associated with any passengers. Same as being on a bus or in a taxi.

I can't see that happening in the next 5 years.

sk8board · 12-12-2025 04:40PM

the waymo interactions with police and emergency responder personnel on streets is a big blind spot currently, and difficult to see how a driverless car can defer decision-making to the human gesturing to them to go a specific way.

As for xPeng and Tesla CEOs skipping past level 3 and talking total BS about level 4, thankfully the adults in charge have thought about such BS, so level 4 shifts significantly the insurance liability to the manufacturer. That renders most conversations pretty moot, as 80:20 isn’t remotely good enough, and insurance needs are concentrated in a small fraction of that 20%.

Tesla won’t be releasing jack that’s level 4, let’s let them do level 2 to a regulatory-acceptable level first without requiring fans to spend €7.5k and beta test it for them.

Imagine spending €7,5k for FSD on a €37k M3.

Seriously lads, are we back here again? 🙄

evftw · 12-12-2025 05:05PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124065015#Comment_124065015

Yet people are known to spend 45k plus on worse cars than Model 3.

jlang · 12-12-2025 06:06PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124065015#Comment_124065015

Hard to train/code for judgement to respect a Garda on point duty or even a dedicated but stupid volunteer directing traffic to a free spot at a village fete parking field without also leaving scope for the chaotic situation of any random muppet in a high viz "directing" a crash. I can't forsee any no-driver FSD scenario where the car won't have to have an option to give up and require/force a passenger or remote controller take over. But if this is done smoothly and a FSD sale/subscription includes some kind of always available remote control fallback, then the drunk driver scenario might still be covered.
(Edit: by FSD, I meant the no driver required type, not the FSD you can buy now.)

...Ghost... · 12-12-2025 06:09PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124065015#Comment_124065015

I won't try predict what will be released and when, but people were spending nearly €60k on a base RWD M3 only a few short years ago with basic AP. Seems the value is not that bad if you can buy a new one now and have FSD installed for a mere 44k. I mean, if you remove your seething hatred of the CEO from the equation, it's pretty decent value. Not worth the extra unless it can be properly used, which we can't yet on our little piece of land. I'd pay it no problem if it had the current functionality of what they have in the US.

12-12-2025 09:06PM

I won't trust it until it knows what a tractor is 😄. I was behind one the other day and it jumped from thinking it was a truck, to thinking it was a car and a motorbike, to thinking it was a truck coming head on towards me, as in it thought the back of the tractor was the front of a truck.

That coupled with tractors having their own specific rules, coming barrelling towards you and not stopping for anyone, forcing you to get into the bushes or get crushed.

I can't see an American based AI knowing what tf to do on rural roads in general to be honest.

Also, how can it possible know what to do on an Irish roundabout? When you've to stay left to go straight on, except for when you've to stay right (with no signs, its just something everyone does). And when people indicate left to let you know they are taking the exit after you.

But I'd buy it just for motorways and national roads.

unkel · 12-12-2025 09:41PM

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/124065560#Comment_124065560

Please, the software in your Tesla is many years old and has zero relation to what the latest FSD beta is and can do

For the craic go watch what that Tesla Cybertruck did when illegally imported into Czechia when it was let loose in the city centre of Prague, without even having any maps

Tesla Talk 2

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