FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST

I will write off December if we are still seeing crud output by the early days of December . The GFS is well behind the ECM AI these days too, so i wouldn't take their long range output too seriously either . If the background factors such as the mjo have a positive influence in terms of leading to blocking in the right place, then we might see more favourable model output in early December. It might just be that this reflective ssw leads to a period of zonality first

Same here, when I was younger I used to wish for extreme cold and snow all winter but these days (and I'm still only in my 30's!) I'll gladly take a mild winter far more often than not.

I find on this forum the chase is nearly always far more excitable than the actual end result, 50 pages of build up for what as you say, is usually just a fairly miserable bit of slush, dangerous roads, slippery footpaths, frozen windscreens and extra heating bills. Something like Dec 2010 or Feb 2018 is obviously memorable for the experience but our regular winter cold.. no thanks.

Even hail and fog would do. I remember a Christmas this happened about 20 years ago and it wasnt bad as it looked festive but was gone in a few hours.

Sadly a lot of mobile chrts dominate the next 10 to 15 days. Then it might calm down but doesnt guarentee cold nowadays.

Yes. A repeat of late December 2000 would be very nice. I would happily endure two weeks of blow torch south- westerlies, if, for once, we had a cold and snowy Christmas week this year. Carlsberg don't do the perfect Christmas, but if they did we would have heavy snow, that sticks readily, on Christmas Eve this year

Not much to get excited about in the models and the expectation of a cold December has dissipated with the reflective SSW that is currently in play which is driving a more zonal flow for the next 2 weeks anyway. However there are tentative signs that blocking in the second half of December will be more prominent but the models don't show it falling in the right places for us yet.

Just thought I'd share some of the longer range charts that show potential:

The ECMWF regimes chart is showing blocked and -NAO for the second half of December and into early January.

The MJO is going for a high amplitude phase 7 which helps with blocking, normally a 2 week lag

And then we have the zonal winds forecast to stay below average even though the reflective SSW is happening, they have steadily been trending downwards again over the last few days with even a couple of mentions from people knowledgeable in this area that an SSW could happen in January

Of course all of the above may come to nothing and instead the jet coming out of the ESB will stay fired up for longer and override all of these but it is better to have them on our side for cold than not so here's hoping!!!

The Strat is by far the biggest piece of the puzzle and it’s really showing. As the other pieces revolve around it. If the Pv does break up and move towards Siberia we could have a better chance towards mid-month as the Mjo lag would align pretty well too for that timeframe

not without interest, I know it’s always a day ten chart but the 0z and 12z are more or less identical

not unlike an early Dec 1978 chart.