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Beef price tracker 2

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,916 ✭✭✭Robson99


    What price is the bitter end or is it too difficult a question ? @nearlybreak



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,816 ✭✭✭Sami23


    100% correct the 450kg to 550kg continentals are back about 200 to 300 euro on average.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Some longer most shorter. Average is 14-16 months at present. 60% will be gone between 9 and 12 months of purchase. Trying to build up numbers to fully stock new farm. No farm payment now for the second year running but we have been able to buy slightly better this year than last year. Why are you fixated by lenght if time they are on the farm

    Demand is at an all time high...…but so are prices some seem unable to accept that. Numbers on the processors side at present. Christmass kill ending now so demand for beef will be limited allowing processors go build up stock. First of the shed cattle appearing out of shed along the west of Ireland that were housed in September.

    When numbers are on there side processors will always pull prices, its always been that way, we do not call them the cartel for no reason

    Processors have dropped contracts because of numbers available. Ya they can sell all the beef they get, but there contracts are all they are worried about.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It's all about replacement cost, it decides your margin. Neighbour has only half his stores bought. If he sold all in August @8/kg he could have all.his stores bought and they woukd be 50-70 kgs heavier now, mine are that and more anyway. Admittedly I have a lot replaced before sell

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Two really good articles in the FI today well worth a read for anyone that is in the beef game. As well prices report and outlook on the usual prices article.

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,126 ✭✭✭farawaygrass


    if the Christmas kill is soon coming to an end and processors have control atm, when do you see things switching in favour of the farmer again?
    I am feeding a few aax cattle in the shed and have February in mind for finishing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭epfff


    Im thinking a window around Xmas but January no good. I think the grip that they get on it in January will determine the first half of the year.

    Remember you are dealing with professionals that got it wrong last spring. If they get it wrong again the price setters up the line will be looking for jobs.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Ya beef in the system now is for you to Christmas over Christmas white meat makes up 50%+of the demand for 7-10 days. This allows processors to fill chills for the period after it.

    Quoting the FI

    Although the processors appear comfortable with supply levels, one observer of the trade noted: "Factories won't be able to magic up more numbers like mushrooms overnight. What beef is in the system now is what beef is in the system.”

    A lot depends on what contracts the process have in place, if they know they cannot magic up demand then they may reduce contracts to reflect that to give them some control over supply.

    Looking at one FI article today our market share in the UK has reduced over the last 12 months. A bigger percentage is going to other markets

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭50HX


    7.50 base this week



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,312 ✭✭✭50HX


    Am I right in saying less contracts in the UK are being by irish processors due to them importing more Aus beef?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Kill is 32k within a kill of 50 head of last week. Processors are rationing supply to contracts not killing much more than they need Processors know there is a limited supply abd are budgeting accordingly.

    According to the FI the processors are afraid if they pull prices too much farmers will throw too many cattle at them. Bigger feeders with contracts are p!ssed off the store price has dropped but processors are holding there cattle in reserve.

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 38 Back4more


    It seems you must be in what's app group with the all the meat factory barons. You have the low down on their every move.

    Just maybe the reason their is no pull on prices is because demand is out stripping supply !



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭epfff


    Demand not out strippng supply

    I offered load of cattle to the two local processors the last 2 weeks and both times they put off until next week without guarantee of price.

    Both are only killing 4 days.

    I supply both regular and they know I'll have cattle all spring at short notice if they want them.

    I'm getting cattle killed but have to travel. One telling me they paying same as what I'm getting and other telling me they not sure what to quote for new cattle yet. I would probably take 5 maybe 10 cent less to kill local but they won't take them.

    My thinking is they are stretching supply while protecting farmers as they don't want killing golden goose. If it drops any more the burning will be severe on anyone with numbers.

    They also know money will buy my forgiveness if needed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,569 ✭✭✭epfff


    On side note cattle are doubling money from spring before expenses but cattle from October will bring money out gate with them without 50cent ISH rise.

    If beef gets 50cent rise in spring grass cattle will pass October price in mart and bring 1euro/kg out the gate with them when killed.

    Big money is to be made out of the guys with small numbers. Processors need to protect farmers against mugging themselves so they have someone left to mug.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,916 ✭✭✭Robson99


    Wait for the lecture on here now about being a soft seller from all the tough guys

    Thats the reality of what is out there epfff and you one of the lads who can supply them at short notice. You won't win playing chicken with them



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,387 ✭✭✭Tomjim


    I have white head bullocks to sell about 450 or 460 kgs. Are there any agents buying these cattle on the farm per kilo liveweight. Im in the midlands



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Yes our tonage and percentage of the UK dropped. Brazilian, Australian and New Zealand beef has replaced it according to the FI yesterday

    Fair play attack the poster do not try to come up with a counter argument and debate the points I raise......either becase you do not understand the business or you are incapable of debating the point. I gave an analysis of what I think is happening and the reasons behind it. I am in this game 20+ years it took me 10+ years to understand the way it works. I believed the BS from the rag about soft sellers and looked at the average prices in it that I seldom reach becase I am at the edge of the processing industry. Held cattle and lost 5c a week for 3-4 weeks often before I would sell.

    On demand and supply I said a few weeks ago that numbers woukd be 30k plus out into the spring I say I will be right it's how far over 30k will decide what happens

    Post edited by Bass Reeves on

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    It's your replacement cost that decides your margin not what you paid last spring. Problem with a spring replacements strategy if you intend to autumn slaughter its a tough ask finding value. A lot of lads at pure summer grazing need a lower margin because tgey run numbers or are operating at a small scale. I gave up winter finishing and reduced autumn finishing because of replacing issues. I operate a one twist system try to slaughter as many as I can early/ mid summer and replace early which allows me buy a lighter animal

    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36 Solo89


    very very little in the marts end of last week or this week so far



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 866 ✭✭✭Pinsnbushings


    Wouldn't profess to have much knowledge of the beef industry, but anecdotally talking to other farmers lot are holding onto cattle till January for tax purposes. We would have a few cattle and cull cows out of a small dairy herd and that's what we are at. I'd say plenty of suckler lads doing the same



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,431 ✭✭✭jfh


    Spot on pinsnbushings, cattle are back, sold a few Saturday and lads I was talking to are holding until January to offload



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 50 ✭✭BeGrand2025


    Would it be a good time to sell Weanling Bulls now or wait until January onwards?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36 Solo89


    your guess is as good as mine. not watching enough to give an informed answer. cattle in general just seem be back - both numbers and price.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭limo_100


    I have some heavy bulls 500kgs all u grade type animals. I am locked up and can’t sell until roughly February and they will be probably 600kgs by then anyone know where would be a good mart in the midlands for these types animals or is there bull show and sales in the spring as one could win a prize. Would have being sold only for tb. And I won’t finish them as I only have a few and could do with freeing up space in the spring.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,417 ✭✭✭Hard Knocks


    Dowra does have a spring show and sale for weanlings. If you get them to 600kg, why not go for u16m



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,019 ✭✭✭Jb1989


    You'd have them killed shortly after February if you started now if you wanted to.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 536 ✭✭✭HHH


    Throw up a photo if you get a chance. Would love to see them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,834 ✭✭✭older by the day


    Have a neighbour yesterday asking me what to do with a few cattle, 4 yrs old, no board bia, 800kg+ LW.

    I said I'd ask a friend???

    Of course he would not sell all year, but now he thinks their getting stiff !!!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 21,268 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Get him to contact his usual agent to see what base a factory will give preferably one he usually deals with. If he is getting anything over 7/ kg base I be going to the factory. It quite possible if he has a decent relationship witha processors/agent he will get a decent base up towards or even at what is going locally. Other than that if he was near me I would tell him to try to get a price off Gortalea or Castleisland but mart weight will be back 50-60 kgs.

    With that sort of weight processors will want them to fill contracts and some are not requiring QA. But he will need a firm price beforehand. I would not spend too long shopping around I be getting them.gone next week. I would be ringing a mart manager today to see if they will look at them basically he needs to get the finger out

    Slava Ukrainii



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,578 ✭✭✭limo_100


    I wouldn’t actually I wasn’t factual in the op there one bull over 500kg and the other 2 are younger calves April born around 350kg. Plan is the sell the 3 of them if I get the tb lifted as I will need the space for cows calving.

    il get some pictures at the weekend. Here’s a rough one I took last weekend of one of the lighter calves.

    IMG_3307.jpeg

    Ricky calf really starting to come into his own.



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