Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/1121/1545128-ukraine-draft-plan/

I'm not a lawyer so I'm highlighting the items that could be considered a win for Russia or a loss to NATO or undermine Ukraine's sovereignty by being decided by others, relative to the pre war status where Ukraine received guarantees in return for getting rid of it's nuclear weapons.

Here is the 28-point plan, according to a draft reviewed by AFP:

1. Ukraine's sovereignty will be confirmed. #1
2. A comprehensive non-aggression agreement will be concluded between Russia, Ukraine and Europe. All ambiguities of the last 30 years will be considered settled.
3. It is expected that Russia will not invade neighbouring countries and NATO will not expand further.
4. A dialogue will be held between Russia and NATO, mediated by the United States, to resolve all security issues and create conditions for de-escalation.
   NATO would agree not to station troops in Ukraine under the draft plan
5. Ukraine will receive reliable security guarantees.
6. The size of the Ukrainian Armed Forces will be limited to 600,000 personnel.
7. Ukraine agrees to enshrine in its constitution that it will not join NATO, and NATO agrees to include in its statutes a provision that Ukraine will not be admitted in the future.
8. NATO agrees not to station troops in Ukraine. #8
9. European fighter jets will be stationed in Poland. #9
10. The US will receive compensation for the security guarantee. If Ukraine invades Russia, it will lose the guarantee. If Russia invades Ukraine, in addition to a decisive coordinated military response, all global sanctions will be reinstated, recognition of the new territory and all other benefits of this deal will be revoked. If Ukraine launches a missile at Moscow or St Petersburg without cause, the security guarantee will be deemed invalid. #10
11. Ukraine is eligible for EU membership and will receive short-term preferential access to the European market while this issue is being considered.
    
12. A powerful global package of measures to rebuild Ukraine, including the creation of a Ukraine Development Fund, rebuilding of Ukraine's gas infrastructure, the rehabilitation of war-affected areas, development of new infrastructure and resumed extraction of minerals and natural resource, all with a special finance package developed by the World Bank.
13. Russia will be reintegrated into the global economy, with discussions of lifting sanctions, rejoining the G8 group and entering a long-term economic cooperation agreement with the United States.
14. $100 billion in frozen Russian assets will be invested in US-led efforts to rebuild and invest in Ukraine, with the US receiving 50% of the profits from the venture. #14
15. A joint American-Russian working group on security issues will be established to promote and ensure compliance with all provisions of this agreement.
16. Russia will enshrine in law its policy of non-aggression towards Europe and Ukraine. #16
    
17. The United States and Russia will agree to extend the validity of treaties on the non-proliferation and control of nuclear weapons, including the START I Treaty. #17
18. Ukraine agrees to be a non-nuclear state in accordance with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.
19. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant will be launched under the supervision of the the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and the electricity produced will be distributed equally between Russia and Ukraine. #18
20. Both countries undertake to implement educational programmes in schools and society aimed at promoting understanding and tolerance. #20
21. Crimea, Luhansk and Donetsk will be recognised as de facto Russian, including by the United States.Kherson and Zaporizhzhia will be frozen along the line of contact, which will mean de-facto recognition along the line of contact. Russia will relinquish other agreed territories it controls outside the five regions. Ukrainian forces will withdraw from the part of Donetsk Oblast that they currently control, which will then be used to create a buffer zone.
22. After agreeing on future territorial arrangements, both the Russian Federation and Ukraine undertake not to change these arrangements by force. Any security guarantees will not apply in the event of a breach of this commitment. #22
23. Russia will not prevent Ukraine from using the Dnieper River for commercial activities, and agreements will be reached on the free transport of grain across the Black Sea.
24. A humanitarian committee will be established to resolve prisoner exchanges, remains returned, hostages and civilian detainees returned, and a family reunification program will be implemented.
25. Ukraine will hold elections in 100 days. #25
26. All parties involved in this conflict will receive full amnesty for their actions during the war and agree not to make any claims or consider any complaints in the future.
27. This agreement will be legally binding. Its implementation will be monitored and guaranteed by the Peace Council, headed by US President Donald Trump. Sanctions will be imposed for violations.
28. Once all parties agree to this memorandum, the ceasefire will take effect immediately after both sides retreat to agreed points to begin implementation of the agreement.

Notes

#1 This only proves that Russia had broken the 1993 Budapest Agreement etc. and rest of the document should be viewed accordingly.

#8 effectively means no peacekeepers.

#9 technically all the fighter jets in Poland are already in NATO - this sounds like limiting the deployment to other countries.

#10 grifters, seriously this means Russian will tear up the "agreement" upon a whim and blame Ukraine or perhaps if Ukraine tries to use force against "separatists"

#14 the EU alone has twice this amount €200Bn on hold ,

#16 seriously ? That's tantamount to saying that the current position is different.

#18 Taking half the electricity after Ukraine has synchronised with the EU grid will be interesting, probably have to assign individual generators to each grid and then shutting down the Ukraine ones would have no effect on Russian grid.

#17 might be considered as not a win for Russia but is not related to this conflict.

#20 Expect it to be used as a casus belli when Russia feels the Ukrainians aren't teaching enough Russian. I can't see Russia teaching Ukrainian to an equivalent degree.

#22 see #10 re "separatists" also Ukraine already had guarantees which turned out to be worthless. The US can't seriously be ignoring "Fool me once"

#25 very destabilising expect Russia to interfere / claim unfair election , when did Russia last have a fair election ?

#26 why not prosecute both sides starting with the worst breaches.

#27 not an honest broker IMHO.

#28 agreed by non-Ukrainians

tl;dr Strongman Trump is putting his name to a document where Russia keeps everything in it's possession without making any concessions and gets all current and previous sanctions lifted, monies retuned, and doesn't have to face any more penalties that it did for breaking the previous agreements.

Ukraine gets peace until Russia regroups/rearms and does something like using "separatists" to trigger a Ukrainian response to "justify" tearing up the treaty and going for Round #2. Or uses the election on day 100 as cover/pretext.

This appeasement will only encourage Putin and other aggressors worldwide.

Bulgaria, Greece, Romania, Turkey are NATO countries that are closer than Poland to the areas Russia occupy.

Hungry and Slovakia are about the same distance as Poland.

Moldova is neutral.

Poland is buying tanks. IIRC they now have (or have on order) more tanks than Germany, UK and France combined.

And they are not buying them from the USA.