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FI Charts ( T120+ onwards) Autumn 2025 **READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST
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GFS 6z and we are close to a split of the PV with one lobe North America and the other over Europe/Russia,
Not quiet a split but with a few more upgrades over the next few days it's possible. If this does end up being a split by 3th/4th December this would have to be one of the earliest ones on record!
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1707
Yes, @Gonzo. An exceptionally zonal pattern is set to take hold over Ireland from later tomorrow and persist through next week as Atlantic systems move back in. Rain or showers will be frequent, with periods of strong winds. Temperatures will stay close to average overall, rising briefly above average around mid-week.
www.weatheire.com
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Clare (430ft asl)Join Date:Posts: 1707
For anyone watching for signs of deeper cold in December, the baseline remains low. At the moment only one of the 30 GEFS ensemble members is producing a genuinely cold outcome, with this evening’s run showing a single notably cold member at the very end.
A displacement or stretching of the polar vortex looks increasingly likely late in the month, with the possibility of a technical SSW still on the table. Colder air will spill south over the following 2-3 weeks. The question for now is where in the mid-latitudes will turn colder.
Weather models will likely pick up on some signals by early next week for December 10th onward. Models will produce some wildly contrasting outcomes run after run, ranging from exceptionally mild to bitterly cold. We have a period to wait yet until we will know if the much talked about 'cold start to winter' is going to materialise.
www.weatheire.com
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This will probably be my last post here for the autumn before I open the Winter threads later next week. Opening week of December is looking exceptionally mild with long fetch south-westerlies sending very mild or even warm (for the time of year) weather our way.
We finish up with warm air sourced from the Canary Islands/North Africa temperatures possibly reaching 14 or 15C in places during the opening week of December. There is something all so familiar about this!
The above operational run may be a bit of an outlier in terms of how warm it gets, but overall all the model runs are mild and increasingly wet with plenty of rainfall spikes for the remaining days of November and into December. A cold lovers horror show.
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While Decembers of recent times have been mild with the exception of 2022 I cannot write off an entire month. The outlook for late Nov and early Dec is undeniably grim and the developments with the rebounding Spv into December don’t help there is still scope for an improvement after the first ten days.
The Statosphere and troposphere coupling is something that has killed off previous decent December prospects, something that is not seen to be happening yet. The Mjo has played a big factor in previous early winter cold spells when the troposphere is leading the way. With the Mjo amplifying at a very reasonable amplitude it could give us help in building heights to our northeast
Gefs has definitely raised the idea of building heights to our Ne, something Mjo phase 7 promotes. Here are the ‘cherry picked’ ensembles.
Perhaps what most of my optimism is built in is the last line of the Met office’s long term outlook. Professional meteorologists who usually air on the side of caution (mild) at this timeframe. December 5th - 19th. “One or more spells of snow cannot be ruled out, should weather systems arriving from the south push north into colder air”. Granted this is an outlook for the Uk it is quite positive
It’s a case of strat vs trop in early winter this year, interesting watching how it will play out in the longer term. Maybe it’s naivety, age or the fact I have not seen the best of winters in this country, my optimism will stand!
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