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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,269 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    The biggest issue for Ukraine the last year has been Russian fibre optic drones. For the first 2 years Ukraine had the drone advantage and the loss ratio was dramatically in their favour. That was changed now though.

    Russian is planning on ramping up their use of FABS and their range will be increased next year. This combined with their fibre optic drones which will no doubt increase in terms of range and volume will make for a very difficult year ahead.

    There's a lot of blood on the West's hands here. They slow balled and held back aid for fear of escalation. Notice how the Russians don't nuclear sabre rattle nearly as much anymore? Because they did their job and scared the West long enough to buy themselves time.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,095 ✭✭✭Avatar in the Post


    People posting the problems Ukraine are facing don’t get it. Repeat after me UKRAINE HAS NO CHOICE. One more time UKRAINE HAS NO CHOICE.

    When Britain was on the brink of invasion by Nazi Germany was capitulation a choice…. Throw themselves at the mercy of Hitler?

    STFU… Ukraine has to fight to the bitter end. There is no appeasing Putin. “Russia is suffering … BUT Ukraine is suffering more.” Ye have far more faith in Putin than Ukraine. Personally, I’m backing the guy who told the West offers of a ride to take a hike, he needs ammunition. Russia doesn’t have anything like this spirit. It’s a country effectively dead behind the eyes.

    Ukraine will win, Putin will walk out a window… when? Hopefully tomorrow.

    Those that foresee a Russian victory - what do you think Ukraine should do differently? 🧐



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,250 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    The idea of stealing the Russian money at Euroclear is a great example of the sort of NAFO tier strategic thinking that has guided European policy over the past 25 years. As the Euroclear director herself noted in her recent interview, the entire world of state investors are watching very carefully how the Russian money is treated. The freezing of the funds is already a risk factor they have to consider before investing in Europe. If Europe outright steals the money, then every state investment fund will look to derisk by taking their money out of Europe: steal Russian money today, steal their money tomorrow. It would be utterly devastating for Europe because the value of the assets at Euroclear already exceeds the entire GDP of the European Union.

    And the Russians would get their money back - they would sue Euroclear in a non-Western juristiction (such as Asia) for the theft, win the case and Euroclear would be forced to pay out the stolen money - likely bankrupting Belgium in the process. So for the low-low price of zero, the Russians would get the strategic win of destroying the European economy.

    That is how bad the idea is. Anyone who has Europe's interests at heart would be against this incredibly bad idea of making it clear to investors their money can be stolen by European banks. But it comes from the same people who driven the German, British and French economies into the ground while reducing Europe to a vassal to Donald Trump of all people. And these people are desperate because they're running out of road. And desperate people make bad decisions.

    Your rationale for stealing the money doesn't even make any sense - the Russian funds are sitting in an account at Euroclear. The Russians cant use them for anything. The only way they benefit the Russians is by Europe stealing them and so further harming the European economy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    It can be seen as reparations to seize the money, like Nazi Germanys money in WW2. Millions of German patents, technical know-how and technical documents were seized by the allies.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭macraignil


    "..

    the loss ratio was dramatically in their favour. That was changed now though."

    Based on what? Not seen any reliable source of information on losses of troops in the conflict that show the Ukrainians are now suddenly suffering greater losses than any other time in the war.

    Wonderwaffen of different types have been claimed by pro putin sources to be about to turn the conflict in putin's favour for quite some time now. How do you know this is true now and not just more pro kremlin lies?

    "There's a lot of blood on the West's hands here." - No there is not. putin and his terrorists are the ones completely responsible for attacking Ukraine and murdering thousands of people there.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,250 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    So if I steal your money now, it is legal because at some undefined point in the future you might owe me money? I don't think that will hold up in court to be honest.

    As has been noted elsewhere, the torturous hoops people jump through to try justify stealing the money is only evidence they know it is stealing. If they thought they were justified in taking the money, they would just take it without the mental gymnastics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    What in the actual ****…. can Ivan from Moscow sue the west in a Russian court for a zillion dollars and the combined west would just hand over the zillion dollars settlement?

    Why doesn't Russia just sue Euroclear in a Moscow court and force them to unfreeze and pay out?

    I suspect countries who want to wage an illegal genocidal war may have to think twice and find another reserve currency to place their assets in. I for one think the deterrent the West provided would make rouge countries think twice before launching an illegal war.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Courts seize money and accounts everyday. It's nothing new. The money you mention will remain frozen indefinitely. It will only be unfrozen when Russia has to pay Ukraine restitution. There is no stealing, it's freezing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,250 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    They will sue them in a court in Asia where NATO can't override the laws. Euroclear - despite the name - is a huge, global custodian of assets that does business across the entire world. If it loses a legal case in a court in Asia (and it would, stealing is a straight up crime), it would be destroyed as a custodian. And even if it did pay out, the loss of trust and faith in Euroclear as a custodian of assets would cripple it. This is why the director of Euroclear is hinting they would rather sue the EU than steal the Russian assets. Because that is how bad an idea it is.

    I know there is this perception amongst the NAFO types that the entire world is basically the USA, Canada and Western Europe. Maybe that was true 30-35 years ago. But it isn't anymore.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    WTF has NATO got to do with Euroclear or the EU?

    None-EU courts have no jurisdiction in the EU. I'm sure I can bribe a Russian judge in a defamation case against Nivida and get a $5 trillion dollar judgement…. you really think Nivida will just cut that cheque?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 17,923 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    Your desperation at how bad an idea it is means it's a brilliant idea.

    Any other things that are a bad idea Sand? Keeping children with their parents perhaps? Or targeting military rather than civilian targets?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,250 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    I suppose if I told you dousing yourself in gasoline and lighting a match was a bad idea you would think it was really a brilliant idea too?

    For the purpose of public safety - please do not do that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Millions of peoples homes and businesses have been stolen and destroyed by Russia in Ukraine, not to mention the tens/hundreds of thousands killed and maimed, children stolen from parents and deported to Russia, forced adoptions etc. Taking the Russian assets is just compensation, like that a criminal would have to pay for theft and destruction of property.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,269 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    If Ukraine has to fight to the bitter end western countries could help by sending every mobilisation aged man who's draught dodged backed to Ukraine including Denys Davydov.

    Also pretending everything is rosy when it's not will not ultimately help Ukraine.

    It's not as much what Ukraine should do differently but the West.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,269 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Re-read my post buddy.

    I talk about the loss ratio while providing a source which is clearly talking about artillery, logistical, armoured losses etc. Russia fibre optic advancement has severely hindered Ukraine this year.

    Drone nets have appeared, drone interceptors Will improve and Ukraine's fibre optics will hopefully increase in volume and quality too. But as of now Russia has an edge here and Will likely invest more here next year.

    There's obviously blood on Putin's hands but I personally am not Russian so I'm not responsible for that. I am however part of the western world that IMO is not doing enough and I'll keep pushing that agenda. Whether that's online or to the politicians at the door. I've donated money from personal funds numerous times towards their effort so I'm doing my part.

    Post edited by RoyalCelt on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    Western countries are not going to break international law deporting legal Ukrainian's back to Ukraine during war.

    Some people are drooling at the thought of that. It won't happen, they have protective status. Ukraine could issue a warrant for those who illegally left Ukraine, in Ireland we can't deport them as the crime they are alleged to commit (desertion) is not on our statute book. I'm sure other European counties could, but as soon as that process starts, the person will just claim asylum and be afforded stronger and longer lasting legal protection.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,269 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Western countries should change international law simple as that. As it stands those laws benefit the rich and powerful at the cost of the poor and weaker. Protecting and paying to look after deserters in a war they can win suits the likes of Putin and that's it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,269 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    122mm artillery becoming pretty useless in the drone era. 155mm just out of range for now but for how long.

    Note they are talking for both sides here. Putin's North Korean artillery stunt bought them time until the drone era took over. A bit like the escalation point I made earlier. It goes back to my point on the West. Blood on their hands for holding back to appease the Russians.

    You know hasn't been rendered obsolete by drones? Taurus. Send them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Well we have the Criminal Assets Bureau and it has stood up to every court challenge to it by the criminal fraternity.



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  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 17,708 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manic Moran


    I don't know about that. The Ukrainians seem to be enjoying their light artillery just fine.

    https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2022/11/28/ukraines-world-war-ii-vintage-howitzers-still-work-just-fine/

    Long range guns are, indeed, absolutely vital, but the short range stuff still has a place, and they seem to be surviving the drones well enough.

    To be clear, I do not believe this demonstrates that towed guns (short range or not) should still be commonly procured, but they are, in the Ukrainian context at least, not pointless.

    The original tweet shows the loss of 7x 122mm howitzers (of which two were destroyed) (3x towed, 4x SP) to the loss of 3x 155mm SP (of which two were destroyed). I don't know if that's particularly definitive one way or the other.

    They lost 3x M577 destroyed. That's probably more concerning, those are command vehicles.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Ukrainian military representatives reported that Russian occupation forces are gradually losing control over parts of Kupyansk in the Kharkiv region. https://www.rfunews.com/map#2025-11-1...

    NATO planners should learn lessons from this conflict, especially on drones.

    Countries used to winning wars often get complacent, such as France before WW2. They didnt appreciate the importance of tanks. The Renault tanks were better than the Panzer IIIs but they deployed them like in WW1 as an infantry support vehicle, not so much the mass tank formations of Nazi Germany.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Sandy my old bean, do you remember what I wrote about a Moral Foundation and lack thereof? You are arguing against the santioning of a state that has engaged in a war of extermination against their neighbour which features (amoung other things) the bombing of children to death in their homes.

    You focused on the Russians losing cash and argue against this. Your arguements have no moral standing, and are worthless until you gain one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭macraignil


    The social media post you link to does not show any comparison between losses of putin's terrorists during this period and those of the Ukrainians or the related losses suffered by either side over other periods of the war, so does not back up what you are claiming about a recent change in loss ratios between the two sides in the war currently. I'm not your buddy. Do whatever you like to support Ukraine in their efforts against putin's terrorists but I can't see the point of making arguments on social media without backing them up with credible sources that actually say what you claim they are saying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,971 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Can’t understand the whole furore about seizing Russian funds.

    They seized EU airplanes and essentially stole them without as much as a blink from the Russians.

    Return the planes (would be mad to take those death traps) and we will return the money.
    Aviation for finances.. wonder which Russia would choose



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,400 ✭✭✭Addmagnet


    Another facet of this is - let's assume that all the wrinkles get ironed out and countries send back young people to Ukraine, who then get drafted into Ukraine's armed forces.

    How effective are those young people going to be? How reliable? Will they ever be fully trusted by their comrades?

    Posters shriek "Ship 'em back!", as if that's the end of the problem, whereas I see it as the start of a whole raft of new problems.

    There's also an uncomfortable whiff of xenophobia coming off such statements, much like the UK wanting to deport migrants to Rwanda(?!?), or ICE in the US deporting people because their tan is a little too good.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭brickster69


    euro.jpg

    What don't you understand about seizing something that is protected by International law and giving them to someone else ?

    What happens when account holders start asking to move assets to somewhere they feel more protected. It's like a gigantic bank run on steroids isn't it ?

    Problem is now after telling the world for years that they are going to do it, when it has come to crunch time they understand they can't and now have go on a mad dash to raise money themselves because Ukraine has run out of cash and needs 100% of it's budget to carry on fighting.

    Wall street and London are not doing it, which should tell you everything about this scheme. Being cynical, they probably would be happy to get a slice of those trillions to look after if it went wrong, which it will.

    The Chinese have already set up an alternative, probably plenty of customers coming to them already.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,971 ✭✭✭✭bear1


    Are you delusional? Why did Russia seize EU leased aircraft?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,040 ✭✭✭rogber


    This is all true. I mean the very thing that got Zelensky elected was campaigning about corruption. Before the war started he was very unpopular because the problem was clearly not being solved.

    Is Zelensky a heroic war time president? Yes.

    Is Ukraine fighting a one hundred percent righteous war against a disgusting Russian state? Yes.

    Is the country absolutely riddled with corruption, including during the war? Yes.

    These things are not mutually exclusive.

    The country does seem to be making efforts to tackle the problem, but it is still a huge problem



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭brickster69


    What's that got to do with the sovereign immunity of states central bank assets ? Everything is going through courts and insurance disputes as i understand with the planes.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



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