Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

There are endless articles on the struggles of the German car sector and chemical sector. Feel free to Google.

Cheap Russian gas is 1 of the main reasons German was so competitive in these areas. The rise of China's car industry will wipe out the German car outside of Europe which the EU will try and protect with tariffs.

Mario Draghi published avery detailed report on the lack of European competitiveness and how to solve. It was commissioned by the EU but a year later it is largely ignored. The European solution to an European problem - do nothing until it's far far too late.

Fair response, I hope you're right and that Ukraine can hold out till then

I'm sure Germany is very appreciative of your concern for their economic situation. They are currently on their own the third largest economy in the world with a GDP greater than India which supports almost 1.5billion people. They are also part of the largest single economic area in the world as a member of the EU. I think they should be able to deal with the funding issues you have mentioned and increase funding for Ukraine in future years to help them deal with issues caused by putin's terrorist state.

Meanwhile efforts by the armed forces of Ukraine continue to clear putin's terrorists from Kupiansk.

all former soviet nations have had to grapple with legacy corruption issues. No prizes for guessing who left them with that legacy. Efforts to tackle it and sign with regulated, liberal democracies in the EU should be applauded by any right minded person. Those who hold any evidence of corruption (on a scale minuscule compared to Belarus and Russia) as a stick to beat them with are really just unmasking their own agendas. Pitiful really.

I hope they are because as a frequent visitor and worker in Germany for over 30 years, they have very serious structural issues and by hiding the head in the sand and saying everything will be fine, they will just end up in the same boat as france, with slightly older retirement age for its workers.

One major issue in Ireland is this attitude of "oh, Germany is wealthy, they will always be able to pay for everything" when the reality is very very different. Crumbling infrastructure (roads, bridges, rail), ageing population, expensive electricity and industry which is suited to the 20th century rather than the 21st.

If you look at corruption perception index pre 2022 war there was very little difference between Russia and Ukraine.

We are talking Zambia, El Salvador and the like for company.

The USA is significantly worse than Europe but it is still light years ahead of Russia/Ukraine and the like.

Ireland is typically Top 10 or close enough.

The corruption in Ukraine was impossible to miss be it large infrastructure projects, dealing with large public bodies.

Anyone down playing Ukrainian corruption has never been there. You only need to drive there to understand it.

You can be very pro Ukraine and acknowledge the endemic corruption within the state.

Corruption in the USSR took off like a wild fire after the death of Stalin; purges are great to keep a lid on things. 😁

Reading this thread you would be unaware of the huge increase in Russian drone attacks, 800 per so nightly with their own home produced drones. Ditto advancement in FPV drones on the front.

NYT, CNN, etc are reporting this.

In this thread a Financial Times report was discounted as propaganda😁

https://archive.ph/nQQzl

Irish times even

https://archive.ph/u2aWV

I'm very confused by how you think it is appropriate to bring criticism of EU economies into a discussion thread related to the russia-Ukraine war. It is like you are trying to make an argument that somehow putin's terrorist state has a hope of maintaining it's economic viability longer than the EU does, when it is plane to see he is in charge of an economic basket case of a country that once had a hope of economic and social development due to is rich natural resources, but has now pissed those prospects away by following the deranged logic of a senile dictator. The EU can see that putin winning in Ukraine will cost them more than any other outcome to the conflict so funding for a defeat of putin's terrorists will continue to increase.

Certain posters are so heavily focused on micro-movements that I think every now and again you have to reset and look at the overall picture.

Russia is the invader looking to conquer another country.

The war is going on for almost 4 years. They've made, in the overall scheme of things, completely negligble gains and sustained horrific losses.

Russia is performing horribly. Russia's economy and oil infrastructure is taking a severe battering. Russia's demographs are taking a severe battering.

Yes obviously Ukraine is suffering but they're fighting a different style of war - a war of survival for the Ukrainian state.

It is Russia's war to lose effectively considering their indescribably collossal advantage in February 2022.

Trying to frame WW1 style advances - small parcels of land gained at back-breaking human cost - as some sort of strategic plan is as transparent as a sheet of glass.

For Russia to "win" it would take a hundred years at the current pace and even if that were to magically happen sooner, they'd then have to occupy and pacify, which in itself would be equally as difficult.

Equally idiotic is people comparing this to the US in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Russia has taken more than 10x casulties than the US suffered in both those conflicts over a 20 year period, putting aside the fact the US was not fighting a war of survival of any kind.

Russia military expenditure per year up to 2022 was about 50 billion. Ukraine was about 10% of that. The difference is Ukraine invested in western tech and NATO style training. Russia probably lost half of their spend to corruption.

It's just a no-win scenario for Russia. For their economy, their population, everything. The sooner someone deposes Putin the better for both sides.

You hit the right notes but are only focusing on Russia's performance. Yes, this been a grinding war for both sides and yes, no doubt Russia has suffering horrific losses by any standards, but it appears that Ukraine has too suffered horrific losses, and has as the smaller nation, it is Ukraine who runs the risk of breaking first on the battlefield.

There is a sense that something across the frontlines that feels different. Russia is now making advances across multiple fronts at the same time, advances that were impossible for them to achieve only a year or 2 ago. Combine that, with the fact that now Ukraine's manpower problems are openly discussed in western media (it's no longer about needing Leopard tanks, F16s, or artillery shells, but rather actual soldiers who can hold ground and fight), there is a sinking feeling that if Russia cracks through the final few fortress belt cities that have been place since 2014, then the momentum of this frontline could very much pick up speed.

Ukraine is now going "all in" in terms of these drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries and other infrastructure, as it appears that AFU commanders themselves have accepted that they are no longer capable of any large scale offensive actions against Russian positions This appears to be the smart move, but it's really hard for us to accurately measure the success or how quickly it can inflict enough economic pain for Russia before Putin will even think about opening real negotiations.

For Russia to "win" it would take a hundred years at the current pace

Are you talking about annexation of all Ukraine here? Not clear that Putin is realistically aspring to that, or what would constitute an aceptable 'win' in his eyes. Perhaps if he could grab the bulk of the legendary 'four oblasts' he might cash in his chips?

The war in Ukraine is not some perverse game of cards where war criminal putin gets to put down his winning hand and claim he has won something. What makes you think the Ukrainians will simply let him keep his terrorist forces in Ukraine and not hunt down his murderous scum for decades to come?

Of course the US sanctioning Rosneft and Lukoil could be a gamechanger.

Reports that the fog has cleared in Pokrovsk. Thats good for Ukrainian drones.