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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,305 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,319 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Russia won't agree to the current lines so Ukraine would have to agree to simply giving away land. Obviously they'll choose to make Russia bleed for the land instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭Jizique


    It was in Bild this evening, Germany's largest selling newspaper, very pro-Ukraine.

    One can be very pro-Ukraine while also highlighting the fact that they seem to want Europe to pay for the war and even put "boots on the ground" when so many are unwilling to remain in the country assisting the war effort in any way.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Silicon Wafers on youtube says that its reported Ukraine says it has taken out 20% of Russia's refinining. However analysts think that the decline in Russian oil production and revenues is not as high as that.

    Also the Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) says that the strikes have started to reduce Russian oil revenues, even as Moscow tries to claw back revenue with higher prices and tax tweaks.

    Some other sources Ive seen said that the damage caused by Ukrainian drones is not always major.

    Yesterday though Russia announced a temporary stop to oil exports, probably connected to the bombing of the port of Novorossiysk.

    Ukraine is also now also targeting the Russian electricity grid.

    In youtube video below, presenter mentions Russia exporting crude oil to India, where its blended with other oil and then sold on the world market. This is a loophole that needs more attention. I recall a report on BBC some months ago showing transfer of Russian oil in international waters to a vessel that then brought it to the port of Jamnagar in India.

    Does anyone think that if we were invaded, we would put up the kind of stubborn resistance Ukraine has done? We would probably have the usual people complaining of the "military industrial complex" if we tried to.

    A recent poll found only 38% say they would fight if we were invaded. Thats actually higher than many European countries. But still how can we if we dont invest in our defence forces? We're too busy criticising the "military industrial complex", and there is so much bureaucracy and civilian leaders not letting the Chief of Staff make decisions like procurement. Its an outdated, post Civil War way of doing things. A legacy of a time when Dev didn't trust the largely pro-Treaty army.

    Kyiv Independent has a pessimistic perspective on Pokrovsk.

    "Combat Veteran" on youtube says that the unusually foggy weather has hampered the effectiveness of Ukrainian drones.

    Post edited by Ozymandius2011 on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭Jizique




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,452 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The refinery issue is overstated but still costly to repair. Low oil price and strength of the currency is the main reason for falling revenues. Having a back up plan also helps for unforseen events also helps quite a lot.

    https://archive.is/vBggK

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,864 ✭✭✭zv2


    Would ya get off the stage. Democratic means by the will of the people. He was no longer democratically elected when he turned on them.

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Your link seems to be paywalled and not much use to me since my German is a bit rusty and I don't have that much interest in subscribing to internal German news anyway. Even if a politician (as you claim) makes a comment in Germany that you want to twist to your anti Ukrainian agenda, the policies I have seen reported highlight strong support for Ukraine from the Germans who also are massively ramping up their own military spending to prepare for the chance that putin's terrorist state will continue to attack Europe in spite of its crumbling economy and massive loss of life they have brought on themselves by attacking Ukraine.

    Latest report I saw on BBC from Germany was a new medical exam young Germans were having to take to assess their ability to serve in the military should numbers need to be expanded as has happened in Ukraine where millions are still there fighting against putin's terrorists. German arms manufacturers are also increasingly supplying Ukrainians with weapons to help them defend themselves.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,178 ✭✭✭Glenomra


    https://www.politico.eu/article/friedrich-merz-tells-volodymyr-zelenskyy-ukrainian-men-should-stay-home-and-fight/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Have you got some kind of Russia-supporter time-share going on or something? Some kind of Round-Robin token system perhaps?

    Also, why always the Internet Archiver for your links? Makes anything posted seem fishy. (Not that we didn’t already think that).

    Do you know why we like reports of Refinaries being taken out Bricky? It’s because it reduces the Russian’s abilities to attack, and bomb Ukrainian children in their homes. Don’t you share that view? Don’t you want to see the Russians robbed of that ability….or do you not care?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,040 ✭✭✭rogber


    Could you put a time line on this? Because it's been the same old line for a couple of years now, people always predicting that Russia will collapse but constantly postponing the timeframe. When roughly do you think Russia will no longer be able to continue this war? 2026? 2027? 2030? I can't wait for the day to arrive, I just don't share your optimism about it, not least because Ukraine's finances and resources are in an even worse state and they also can't just go on and on forever



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭Jizique


    I most certainly do not have an anti-Ukraine opinion, but I do think Merz has a strong case esp when Germany is planning to reintroduce compulsory conscription for its own 18 year old



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,131 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Russia won't agree to Ukraine remaining an independent country. There is no choice to be made.



  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Paid Member Posts: 33,131 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    Germany reintroducing conscription has nothing to do with Ukraine though - it has to do with Russia, and ironically it would potentially be less necessary if they provided more support to Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Germany decides what it does in preparing for its own military needs and with putin's terrorist state showing no signs of becoming more rational it makes sense for all nations close to it to have some improvement in their military resources. Ukraine already has a huge army defending over a massive front line and it has been fighting against attacks from putin's terrorist state for over a decade now with no sign of putin slowing down in his efforts to erase them as a nation. I don't think any one knows better how to defend against putin's terrorist state than they do due to their level of experience and if they see fit that young people are allowed finish their education or do something else besides military service then I think the decision is entirely theirs.

    Maybe drafting in thousands of new recruits could save some fields and tree lines in east Ukraine from occupation or maybe the young people given a bit more freedom by Ukraine will be the resource that innovates and is industrious in ways that helps them achieve a complete defeat of russian terrorists attacking their country. It seems to me that Ukraine regards its young people as a resource that can produce a lot for the country's future unlike putin who views the young people of his country as fodder to soak up bullets in his quest to build a bigger russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,452 ✭✭✭brickster69


    Sounds to me like the US has run out of ideas on sanctions according to US secretary of state Rubio where he also spoke candidly about the issue on providing air defence systems.

    Despite not being able to make them fast enough , they have loads of other countries to supply as well as hundreds of US military bases around the world to supply also. Do they just send to Ukraine and see them blown up within a week or prioritise sending somewhere else who need them ?

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭Rawr


    I don’t think the timeframe this is something we can predict with any amount of accuracy. This is a nation facing a state of failure that we’ve never really seen at this scale in modern times. I am certain that it is not a matter of if, but of when, but what can we even guess in terms of when?

    I don’t think we’re going to witness one large failure event where everything goes to hell and the war stops. I think there’s going to be a longer series of failures (which we’ve already started to see since the start of the war) where bit-by-bit Russia will lose abilities that it previously had. It will then gradually get to the point where they can’t mount offensive actions in Ukraine, and later on they will be unable to defend against counter-attack.

    In the run up to all that is happening, we’ll see the daily functioning of the Russian state getting progressively harder. Fuel is one thing, but then you’ll start to see problems with food supply, public transport, and finally what is left of social services. The Russians can redirect as much as they like to the military to keep themselves in the fight, but without their domestic logistics chain they will not last long.

    My guess is that within the next 2 years we’ll still see the Russians in this fight, but they’ll be a shadow of what they are now. They’ll still send meat-waves, but the won’t have armoured support or transport for quick movement, and with any luck they won’t have much of their artillery left to bomb civilian centers. That’s just a guess and based on only my gut. We won’t know for sure until all of this actually happens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Reposting from Russia-friendly Twitter accounts Bricky? I guess I’d be disappointed if you didn’t.

    But enough of this chinwag about our debate about Russian longevity, you have something to do first. Care to explain why it is ok for the Russians to bomb children? Do you have a position on that?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,239 ✭✭✭wassie




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,452 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,707 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    @brickster69 Rubio "spoke candidly"…and pigs flew + hell froze over 🤥. Not part of the job description. Him & Lavrov should have a lot of points in common anyway.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,375 ✭✭✭Jizique


    I don't disagree with much of that but keeping young males and females in the country who can help with logistics, repair, manufacturing, supply, medical needs etc while begging for other countries to supply troops is somewhat contradictory.

    Look, bottom line is this young generation is making a life elsewhere and only a small minority is ever likely to return, whether it is from Ireland with its 100k Ukrainians, Germany with its 1.3m, or other countries across Europe. Those nearest eg Poland perhaps most likely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    When the war ends the temporary protection afforded to Ukrainian's within the EU will end. Unless they plan to stay within the EU illegally, they will be returning home.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,653 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Lol, Fat Chungus is running of Shells to help Putler and what ones he has, are of poor quality.

    https://newsukraine.rbc.ua/news/north-korea-runs-out-of-shells-for-putin-1763159907.html

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,305 ✭✭✭Charles Babbage


    All the same, you can see why it is politically difficult in Germany to introduce medical tests for possible conscription if the country is flooded with Ukrainians in the same age group.

    The current foggy conditions may make defence more difficult in Pokrovsk/Myrnohrad, but it will also facilitate an orderly withdrawal without excessive casualties, which may now be best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,481 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Sort of lends to my suspicion that North Korea have been forwarding Cold War stockpiles to the Russians, and are now running out. South Korea should be paying sharp attention to this…although I suspect that they already are.

    The dire quality of the munitions might also suggest that these are from poorly maintained long term stockpiles that could have been produced the guts of 30 - 40 years ago…if not longer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,027 ✭✭✭macraignil


    Requesting help in dealing with attacks in breach of international law by a terrorist state is something I would not downgrade to the term begging. If putin succeeds in Ukraine there are many EU countries that could face attacks and stopping him in Ukraine is the safest thing for the continent. The EU in effect should be paying Ukraine for their work in defending the continent and that is one reason I think their economy is in a much better state than putin's. The majority of Ukrainians in Ukraine before the attacks from putin started are still in Ukraine coping with attacks from his terrorists on a daily basis. A quick internet search shows the early 2014 population is estimated at 45million where as today estimates vary from 39million to 43 million.

    I don't see any contradiction in requesting help from experienced military forces while allowing freedom of movement to young people without any significant military experience. Ukrainians in EU countries I believe will not all turn their back on their country and will play a vital role in helping rebuild Ukraine and make it a productive part of the EU when it becomes a member. Many of them are already playing a productive role in the countries they have gone to shelter from putin's terrorists and the EU is in need of younger workers to maintain economic growth in the face of population decline in many places due to declining birth rates. As someone living in Ireland I have seen how the economy here has really benefited from inward migration and how some from eastern Europe were happy to move home when conditions suited.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,074 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    Trump reportedly planning to deport Ukrainians back to Ukraine. Shameful. The plan is they will be deported to Poland, and from there to Ukraine. Will Poland go along with this?

    The Trump administration is gearing up to send Ukrainians back to their war-torn homeland, with 80 people being targeted for removal if the plan reaches fruition. A Justice Department court filing reviewed by the Washington Post revealed the government plans and names of those Ukrainians on the removal list. Andrey Bernik stated in an interview with the Post that ICE officers recently told him he would be sent to Poland on a charter flight, where he would then be transferred to Ukrainian authorities. 



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,854 ✭✭✭Wolf359f


    I doubt Poland would go along with it. Any Ukrainian's being deported to Poland will just claim asylum. Be almost impossible for Poland to deport them as they would have a very valid claim. It's one of the reasons why they have temporary status in the EU. It prevents or incentives ukranians not to claim asylum.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,812 ✭✭✭oceanman


    How do you know they will become a member of the EU? The last time they tried to join they were refused on the grounds of being so corrupt, dont think things have changed that much since.



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