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After the FF Presidential election debacle, how long before Micheal Martin resigns or is pushed?

1568101113

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,706 ✭✭✭yagan


    You only have to look at a demographic pyramid of Ireland to see that whichever parties voter base is in the bulge in the 35-55 age bracket will be central to all future governments as the older traditional FFG voter base shrinks in comparison. Not even the "old conservative people always vote more" won't change that.

    I can see the FFG older based vote collapse once it's obvious it's pointless. It's a generational swap out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    This and the delayed report is doing Martin no favours. How long will he last as FF leader and Taoiseach?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    They'll have to drag him out kicking and screaming. I think that there is a parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday next and the report was supposed to be ready by then. It looks like Martin is trying to evade responsibility. His loyal followers will be the ones to watch. They might be getting worried if the tide is turning against Martin. Ideally, the FFers will want him to resign before the PP meeting. That way a motion of no confidence would not be necessary and would allow him to save some face within FF.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The RTE article has some choice quotes.

    https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/1109/1543017-fianna-fail-speech/

    It slices and dices Martin without mentioning him directly. This is a deadly quote for FFers who still know their history:

    "The Ireland South MEP also said that the founders of Fianna Fáil "were people of little or no property", and he contended that members should be "very proud" that the party "has never been the party of the landed or business classes." "

    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 75,488 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    Please check in on me in 20 minutes to check I haven't died laughing at that last quote.

    As soon as TACA (FF business fundraising / corruption arm) was founded in the 60s; FF were the party of the landed and business classes. The Galway Tent was just that same stuff, 40 years later. And they'd re-start it immediate if they could get away with it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    And which potential leadership candidate would have had dealings with property?

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 815 ✭✭✭chrisd2019


    8th December 2025 is D day for this issue :)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,836 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Regards…jmcc



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,239 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Lads,he's not going anywhere for now.

    Even his likely successors don't want him gone now,it's way too early in the election cycle.

    He'll stay on until the hand over of the office of Taoiseach and then Jim O Callaghan will take over.

    He doesn't lose face,his legacy is not tarnished, it's a smooth transition. However,at the same time he's still gone which is what everybody wants.

    The new man gets the reins with a couple of years to put his stamp on it before GE.

    Thats the way this going to go down.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭skimpydoo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    That's probably how Martin wants it to happen. The problem is that there seems to be people in FF who are not pleased with that.

    Kelleher's speech was made at a DeValera event. There are some criticisms that seem directly aimed at Martin and potential successors like Darragh O'Brien (that's the property reference for those who missed it). O'Brien may fancy himself as FF leadership material. The attempt to put off the delivery of the report is typical of Martin and his loyalists. They seem to hope that FF will act like sheep as usual.

    Like Cromwell and his son, Tumble Down Dick, Martin's chosen successor seems to be Jack Chambers. He has been promoted by Martin. The problem is that there was a potential leadership challenge in 2020 that fizzled because of the Covid lockdowns and Martin survived only by cravenly leading FF into government with FG. That was something that Martin said he would not do before the 2020 GE. That identity section in the Kelleher speech is also important. FF losing its identity under Martin is a thing with FFers. That the electorate no longer distinguishes between FF and FG is a big problem.

    The loss of the centre and centre Left is also mentioned in the speech. That's where FF used to get a lot of its support historically. Under Martin, FF has abandoned the centre and centre Left to become more centre Right like FF. This is an an existential problem for FF because SF is now moving into the centre/centre Left space abandoned by FF. Kelleher is smart enough to realise this. Martin is not.

    If this speech is reflected by sentiment in FF, then it is an attempt to make FF "great" again by reminding FFers that it once hd popular support consistently over 30%. Under Martin, FF is still on the same level of support from 2011 when Martin led FF into its worst election defeat ever. Will Wednesday be a silence of the lambs event?

    Post edited by jmcc on

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,836 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    That's quite possibly the plan but this is his declared public position

    If he keeps reiterating that as the handover draws near do the parliamentary party not at some point have to take him at his word?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The "cabinet"? A flock of FF sheep that Martin chose supports Martin? No surprise there. Suppose that things might have changed since that article was written and some FFers are getting ready for a post-Martin future.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,239 ✭✭✭HBC08


    MM is a dead man walking now,he knows it,the public know it and all his colleagues know it.

    It's about getting out with his reputation somewhat in tact.

    JC seemed like a decent up and comer but his involvement with the election and the very fact he's MMs choice as the annointed one rules him out.

    DOB isn't a strong enough character or indeed enough of a departure from MM to be in with a shout.

    That leaves JOC to come in and establish the party as the main centre right option.If he can do that (big ask i know) then FF will be a bigger party than FG and maybe SF come the next election.

    Anyway,as I posted a few weeks ago there'll be no serious heave against MM until the handover.It just doesn't make sense for anybody involved.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 14,231 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I think delaying the election report will only anger FF TDs further. It's a cynical move because it's not a complex story. I do think Martin will be gone before Xmas.

    RTE wanted the whip (Mary Butler) as the relevant minister to comment on the 13 year psychologist waiting list for children today but she wasn't available due to her role in saving Martin.

    Honestly I don't think FFG TDs actually work anymore. They just play politics all day.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,703 ✭✭✭jmcc


    An orderly handover to his minion (Chambers) was how Martin wanted it. The situation has changed since the presidential election and Martin's approval figures are going down the toilet. The fear in FF may be that he will take them down with him. That's reason enough to move against him. There's another opinion poll due in the next few weeks (Business Post/RedC). This unrcertainty over Martin's disposal may begin to eat into FF support and the longer he remains, the worse it could be for FF against SF and FG. O'Callaghan might be a better option for FF. The problem is that the damage Martin has inflicted on FF will take a lot of hard work and time to repair.

    Post edited by jmcc on

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    tick tock tick tock Martin. Not too long until he is gone.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭Floppybits




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,716 ✭✭✭skimpydoo


    No but I feel his time is up and he will be gone by Christmas. The delay in the report into Jim Gavin plus the fact that Jim Gavin who is now a FF member was not interviewed is telling. Martin is hiding something and by doing what he is doing he is alienating more and more FF voters, members and politicians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    I thought Gavin refused to take part in the review and not that he wasn't interviewed?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 7,775 ✭✭✭Allinall


    This is true.

    Other poster is making up stories, as usual.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    What legacy? The smoking ban is about all he has as his legacy.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,239 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Legacy as in he won't be remembered for being kicked out of the office of Taoiseach.

    He will achieve this.

    It benefits none of the relevant players to heave against him.

    Politics in Ireland can be simple enough to predict when you take the emotion out of it and look at it objectively.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 888 ✭✭✭eastie17


    Henry Sellors will not get the leadership no matter how much he thinks “he made the BBC”



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Not just about TD's and the parlimentary party to be fair….who are only concerned with themselves. A lot of the members of the party are not happy.

    2 of my family aren't renewing their membership while he is there. I'm not or never have been a member



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,239 ✭✭✭HBC08


    Yes I know a lot of them are unhappy,as are a lot of TDs and influential people in the party.

    Of course it's all self interest and jostling for position now.With that in mind it doesn't make sense to heave against MM at this time (at least not in big enough numbers) He'll be gone after the handover,no need for big numbers to start making big noises now,just wait it out and don't explicitly support him.

    This is the mistake the likes of DOB have made,his support of MM means not only is he not going to lead FF but he's unlikely to be any sort of top dog under the new leadership. There are others like Norma Foley promoted way above their abilities who have come out in support of MM because they owe him everything and possibly know they will be nobodies in FF going forward.

    JC is an interesting one.Hes a smart cookie (and potential next leader)but has being caught up in the presidential disaster and will not be popular as MMs anointed one.Hes intelligent enough to see this but how he can navigate it remains to be seen.

    The likes of BK speaking out against MM means he'll be near enough the top table under new leader.

    JOC is staying quiet and is seen as a tougher individual than all of the above.Certainly very capable and was making the right noises about the immigration disaster before it was fashionable.

    In my opinion he's positioning himself to take over when MM is shuffled off the stage (not exact kicked out but gone before he wanted to) This satisfies everyone as MM gets to leave with a bit of dignity,however it also satisfies the party members/public in that he didn't leave completely on his own terms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,836 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


     it doesn't make sense to heave against MM at this time (at least not in big enough numbers) He'll be gone after the handover,

    Everyone's asuming this but MM's public position is

    If he maintains this position into next year and the year after do we not have to take him at his word at some point?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,461 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    But Martins word means nothing at this stage, I don't think there is a person in the country that believes anything he says. Sure only today he was saying that he did not try stifle the debate on immigration.



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