After the biggest Presidential election debacle in Fianna Fail's history, how long realistically does Micheal Martin have left? Will he resign or will there be a heave against him?
What legacy? The smoking ban is about all he has as his legacy.
This is true.
Other poster is making up stories, as usual.
I thought Gavin refused to take part in the review and not that he wasn't interviewed?
No but I feel his time is up and he will be gone by Christmas. The delay in the report into Jim Gavin plus the fact that Jim Gavin who is now a FF member was not interviewed is telling. Martin is hiding something and by doing what he is doing he is alienating more and more FF voters, members and politicians.
Did something happen this evening?
tick tock tick tock Martin. Not too long until he is gone.
An orderly handover to his minion (Chambers) was how Martin wanted it. The situation has changed since the presidential election and Martin's approval figures are going down the toilet. The fear in FF may be that he will take them down with him. That's reason enough to move against him. There's another opinion poll due in the next few weeks (Business Post/RedC). This unrcertainty over Martin's disposal may begin to eat into FF support and the longer he remains, the worse it could be for FF against SF and FG. O'Callaghan might be a better option for FF. The problem is that the damage Martin has inflicted on FF will take a lot of hard work and time to repair.
I think delaying the election report will only anger FF TDs further. It's a cynical move because it's not a complex story. I do think Martin will be gone before Xmas.
RTE wanted the whip (Mary Butler) as the relevant minister to comment on the 13 year psychologist waiting list for children today but she wasn't available due to her role in saving Martin.
Honestly I don't think FFG TDs actually work anymore. They just play politics all day.
MM is a dead man walking now,he knows it,the public know it and all his colleagues know it.
It's about getting out with his reputation somewhat in tact.
JC seemed like a decent up and comer but his involvement with the election and the very fact he's MMs choice as the annointed one rules him out.
DOB isn't a strong enough character or indeed enough of a departure from MM to be in with a shout.
That leaves JOC to come in and establish the party as the main centre right option.If he can do that (big ask i know) then FF will be a bigger party than FG and maybe SF come the next election.
Anyway,as I posted a few weeks ago there'll be no serious heave against MM until the handover.It just doesn't make sense for anybody involved.
The "cabinet"? A flock of FF sheep that Martin chose supports Martin? No surprise there. Suppose that things might have changed since that article was written and some FFers are getting ready for a post-Martin future.
That's quite possibly the plan but this is his declared public position
If he keeps reiterating that as the handover draws near do the parliamentary party not at some point have to take him at his word?
That's probably how Martin wants it to happen. The problem is that there seems to be people in FF who are not pleased with that.
Kelleher's speech was made at a DeValera event. There are some criticisms that seem directly aimed at Martin and potential successors like Darragh O'Brien (that's the property reference for those who missed it). O'Brien may fancy himself as FF leadership material. The attempt to put off the delivery of the report is typical of Martin and his loyalists. They seem to hope that FF will act like sheep as usual.
Like Cromwell and his son, Tumble Down Dick, Martin's chosen successor seems to be Jack Chambers. He has been promoted by Martin. The problem is that there was a potential leadership challenge in 2020 that fizzled because of the Covid lockdowns and Martin survived only by cravenly leading FF into government with FG. That was something that Martin said he would not do before the 2020 GE. That identity section in the Kelleher speech is also important. FF losing its identity under Martin is a thing with FFers. That the electorate no longer distinguishes between FF and FG is a big problem.
The loss of the centre and centre Left is also mentioned in the speech. That's where FF used to get a lot of its support historically. Under Martin, FF has abandoned the centre and centre Left to become more centre Right like FF. This is an an existential problem for FF because SF is now moving into the centre/centre Left space abandoned by FF. Kelleher is smart enough to realise this. Martin is not.
If this speech is reflected by sentiment in FF, then it is an attempt to make FF "great" again by reminding FFers that it once hd popular support consistently over 30%. Under Martin, FF is still on the same level of support from 2011 when Martin led FF into its worst election defeat ever. Will Wednesday be a silence of the lambs event?
Are you sure about that?
Lads,he's not going anywhere for now.
Even his likely successors don't want him gone now,it's way too early in the election cycle.
He'll stay on until the hand over of the office of Taoiseach and then Jim O Callaghan will take over.
He doesn't lose face,his legacy is not tarnished, it's a smooth transition. However,at the same time he's still gone which is what everybody wants.
The new man gets the reins with a couple of years to put his stamp on it before GE.
Thats the way this going to go down.
Not even Jesus could save that lot. :)
Immaculate Conception of a saviour for FF?
8th December 2025 is D day for this issue :)
And which potential leadership candidate would have had dealings with property?
Please check in on me in 20 minutes to check I haven't died laughing at that last quote.
As soon as TACA (FF business fundraising / corruption arm) was founded in the 60s; FF were the party of the landed and business classes. The Galway Tent was just that same stuff, 40 years later. And they'd re-start it immediate if they could get away with it.
The RTE article has some choice quotes.
https://www.rte.ie/news/2025/1109/1543017-fianna-fail-speech/
It slices and dices Martin without mentioning him directly. This is a deadly quote for FFers who still know their history:
"The Ireland South MEP also said that the founders of Fianna Fáil "were people of little or no property", and he contended that members should be "very proud" that the party "has never been the party of the landed or business classes." "
They'll have to drag him out kicking and screaming. I think that there is a parliamentary party meeting on Wednesday next and the report was supposed to be ready by then. It looks like Martin is trying to evade responsibility. His loyal followers will be the ones to watch. They might be getting worried if the tide is turning against Martin. Ideally, the FFers will want him to resign before the PP meeting. That way a motion of no confidence would not be necessary and would allow him to save some face within FF.
This and the delayed report is doing Martin no favours. How long will he last as FF leader and Taoiseach?
Shots fired?
https://www.independent.ie/irish-news/politics/fianna-fail-facing-a-demographic-cliff-edge-by-neglecting-young-people-mep-billy-kelleher-warns/a1651724802.html
Interestingly, that topic kept coming up on the presidential election threads here.
You only have to look at a demographic pyramid of Ireland to see that whichever parties voter base is in the bulge in the 35-55 age bracket will be central to all future governments as the older traditional FFG voter base shrinks in comparison. Not even the "old conservative people always vote more" won't change that.
I can see the FFG older based vote collapse once it's obvious it's pointless. It's a generational swap out.
I think Yates didn't know he would be hired to train Gavin on the 29 of August if that the podcast you are referring to. https://open.spotify.com/episode/6AdLvfZvgaWUdjCRG2r2Zo?si=e9a73a04372d44e6
Ivan Yates only said one specific sentence about Jim Gavin after the first debate "He hasn't done this type of thing before", and Matt Cooper didn't watch it.
https://open.spotify.com/episode/0rklG62tEWybHvi8tVjPEp?si=mj6H65kHSrmFTbq4912CkA
and by the next one, he had dropped out, he just remarked on his inexperience and that he simply wasn't a politician.
SF hadn't endorsed Connolly at the time. She was expected to plateau at about 17% (the SocDem/PBP/Lab/Green/Independent support). Humphreys was a weak candidate and Gavin could have benefited from that and the FF election machine and votes. Too many things went wrong at the same time in this PE for FFG. Those odds, at the time before SF backed Connolly and Gavin's campaign imploded were not unreasonable. There seems to be a campaign to blame a lot of stuff on Yates to deflect from the two bozos in charge of FFG.
It's actually priceless listening back to Path to Power episodes about Gavin and the election. Yates was really selling him! He told his friends to get stuck into Gavin at 25/1 when he first appeared as a possible candidate. By the time he was selected as FF candidate, Yates had him at 5/4 fav with Connolly 12/1.
I think that the SocDem support in the 18-34 demographic has always been stronger than that of Labour. It can vary from poll to poll. The support in the 35-54 demographic is quite significant. Much of Labour's support is in the 55+ demographic and that's a problem for Labour as a small party. FF is also strong in that demographic but as a larger party, it is not such a liability.
Labour had a chance to be a major party in 2011. To consolidate the Left (or at least the Irish version of it), it would have been necessary for Labour to have stayed out of government. That would have required political courage as it would have forced FG into a very difficult position. FG had its own problems in that it could have easily won a majority. Setting the hapless Labourites up as the fallguy for EU imposed Austerity may have been part of FG's strategy. If so, it worked well with Labour taking the hit in 2016.
The problem was that Labour had been subverted by the Stickies (aka Democratic Left/Workers Party etc) and they were eager for ministerial salaries and pensions. SF was not a major party at that time. Had Labour been properly led, then a genuine Left/Right axis in Irish politics could have emerged. SF might never have become part of the Big Three model and Labour could even have replaced FF as part of the 2.5 party model with FF becoming the new half party.
The Palantir shares and declarations may have had a greater impact on Hayes. The blackface scandal seemed to have been a media manufacturd scandal. It will be interesting to see if he will be reelected though SF might well take that seat.
It may not be that simple. The Irish electorate isn't aligned along a simple Left/Right axis as is are many of the countries in the EU. Party policies tend to be composites of what will attract votes.
An FF Ard Fheis voted that FF's position would be pro-life. Then, Martin decided on his own to ignore the FF vote and change that policy for votes. FG used to have a liberal element under FitzGerald and also had a conservative element. There was a disagreement between some of the conservatives and FG and the conservatives went off and formed Renua. The problem was that Renua had no leadership and was effectively a single issue party.
FFG need to pivot hard to the right to stop the electorate voting in an SF-led left government?
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