Donald Trump the Megathread part II - Mod Warning updated in OP 12/2/26

Reports of bomb threats in NJ. Voting was temporarily paused in places, while in other places voters got to vote somewhere else. Rep Mikey Sherill is running against Ciaterelli. The cost of living is a big issue. The governor there is a Democrat but I think term limited so returning.

Some exit polls (CNN):
NJ gubernatorial election. Reason for voting:
13% to support Trump
38% to oppose Trump
47% Trump not a factor.

Trump approval rating in NJ:
43% approve
55% disapprove

Trump approval rating in Virginia:
41% approve
56% disapprove

Reasons for voting:
15% to support Trump
37% to oppose Trump
47% Trump not a factor.

NJ Gubernatorial election Most important issue for voters:
36% taxes
34% economy
16% healthcare
7% Immigration
3% Crime.

Virginia gubernatorial election most important issue for voters:
49% economy
21% healthcare
11% immigration
10% education
5% crime

California (which is holding a referendum on redistricting to counter Republican redistricting in other states) most important issues:
46% economy
18% immigration
16% healthcare
12% crime
8% Climate Change

NY City mayoral election. Most important issues:
56% Cost of Living
22% Crime
10% Immigration
5% Health Care
1% Transportation

I think the closest race is likely to be the Virginia AG race. This has been close since revelations that Jay Jones threatened the Republican Speaker of the House in emails years ago. However in the last few days an Emerson/The Hill poll had Jones ahead 1-2%.

In Virginia, traditionally the Democratic leaning northern counties in the DC suburbs come in late so for much of the night expect a GOP lead there if its close. For Democrats to win they have to run up their leads in the DC suburbs.

Also NBC news poll yesterday. 50% want a Democrat controlled Congress, to 42% who want a Republican controlled one (5.33 minutes in).

Exit poll from NY mayoral election. Asked whether candidates positions on Israel were important the results were:
38% a major factor
30% a minor factor
29% not a factor at all.

Asked if crime a problem where they live, New Yorkers say:

33% a minor problem
51% a major problem
13% not a problem

On whether housing costs are a problem where they live:

72% say its a major problem
14% a minor problem
12% not a problem

NY being counted. With 36% counted, Mamdani leads Cuomo 51.5-39.7 so far. Sliwa is on 8% and Adams on 0.2%.

Breaking down the demographics Cuomo won blue colour voters but only by a few percentage points (Mamdani got 37% of them). Mamdani overwhelmingly won 18-29 year olds, who are 11% of the electorate. Cuomo won the Jewish vote 60-30. Jews are 15% of the electorate in NY.

Breaking: CNN has projected Democrat Abigail Spanberger will win the Virginia gubernatorial election.

Very unclear who will win the Virginia AG election given the controversy over Jay Jones' past statements about the Republican speaker. At present its 49.8% each with Jason Miyares of the Republican party.

Some more exit polls from CNN:

Virginia Governor's race:
Women: 61% Spanberger (D), 37% Earle-Sears (R, the current Lt-Governor).

Independents:
Spanberger 56%
Earle-Sears 41%

Suburban voters:
Spanberger 56%
Earle-Sears 43%

Governor Youngkin - R - won this group by 7% in 2021

Federal Workers:
Spanberger 61%
Earle-Sears 37%

Also in NY, 26% see themselves as a Democratic Socialist, while 69% dont.

Mamdani currently leads Cuomo around 49.6-41.5% with 52% counted.

All 5 NJ counties that Trump flipped from Dem to GOP last November have flipped to Democrat candidate Mikey Sherill, including largely Hispanic Passaic county. It was expected to be close but this time statewide shes ahead 14%. Abigail Spanberger is so far 13% ahead in Virginia.

Breaking: CNN projects Zohran Mamdani wins mayoral election in NY.

CNN projects Democrat Jay Jones will win the Virginia AGs race, defeating incumbent AG Jason Miyares.

This was really close, about 50-50 for much of the night then 51-47. The reasons it was close was controversial remarks by Jones from years ago that were revealed.

California is or will soon start counting their votes on redistricting.