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Russia-Ukraine War (continuing)

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,619 ✭✭✭CelticRambler


    At this stage, you'd have to factor in the "six degrees of separation" effect too. There can't be many Russian men of draftable age left who don't know at least one close friend or family member who has been sacrificed for Putin's Folly, and how many of their kin have actually received the millions of roubles promised?

    So are they going to willingly allow themselves to be drafted when their time comes? Especially as the Great And Mighty Putin seems increasingly unable to stop the Ukrainians from making life worse for ordinary Russians. What kind of a strongman lets the petrol stations run dry, or the lights go out?

    Then again, I can't get my head around these feckers being willing to spend their own money on fuel and other supplies to get themselves to the frontline, so who knows what kind of deranged logic they follow.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,641 ✭✭✭✭nacho libre


    I wonder just how long till the attacks on Russian energy infrastructure make it impossible for Russia to wage war in Ukraine anymore?

    Also I presume US intelligence is playing a significant role in these attacks behind the scenes?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,662 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 940 ✭✭✭mike_cork




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 1,096 ✭✭✭Avatar in the Post




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,865 ✭✭✭zv2


    Now that energy systems are fair game willy-nilly sabotage is the way to go-

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,087 ✭✭✭Ozymandius2011


    OPEC have done Russia a favour by pausing production increases.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,865 ✭✭✭zv2


    ….

    It looks like history is starting up again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,461 ✭✭✭brickster69


    The former deputy defence minister of Ukraine calling for the order to withdraw to be given. Very contrasting information on what is the going on in Pokrovsk and Myrnograd at the moment. No doubt more footage will come out shortly.

    vit.png deep.jpg

    Deep state woke up a little over the weekend but an article in the Ukrainian media stated that most of the grey zone is indeed under Russian control which is what many reliable neutral outfits are showing. The main fighting is just taking place in a high rise section in the North east of Pokrovsk.

    A big meeting in Madrid set to take place in the next couple of days with the coalition of the willing to finalise the ceasefire proposal.

    The old world is dying, and the new world struggles to be born: now is the time of monsters. — Antonio Gramsci



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,517 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    TACO strikes again!!!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Bricky, you wouldn't know a "reliable neutral source" if it ran up to you on the street and repeatedly smacked you with a giant billboard emblazened with the words "I'M NEUTRAL!!" in sparkly gold letters.

    Especially since you are not neutral and now I get to ruin things yet again by asking why you are ok with Russians bombing children in their beds and schools. Kinda speaks to a bias one might have…doesn't it?

    Surely a "reliable neutral source" could give a concise reply to such a request? Wanna try?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,536 ✭✭✭✭Jelle1880


    You are hilarious with your claims about 'neutral outfits'.

    Also, that meeting in Madrid is to find an agreement to increase aid to Ukraine, not for a ceasefire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,244 ✭✭✭wassie


    The former deputy defence minister of Ukraine.

    You might need to buy some more BlyatGPT credits to get some better sources….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Gotta get a new "Istanbul" to go with the Cauldron Reports, Jelle. Alaska is no use, and Hungry is going nowhere…so "Madrid" at least looked like it would fit the bill…despite it being the polar opposite as you pointed out.

    Ah well…don't worry Bricky…some city somewhere can be your new "Istanbul"…just hang in there and have faith in the Motherland!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,377 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    You'd imagine Ukraine isn't going to let this city fall. Hopefully another counter attack soon to completely cut them off unless they're happy with them being funnelled through a narrow channel.

    I refuse to believe Ukraine will lose this city in this manner. In other news Putin ordered the Donbass captured by February. Expect the endless meat waves to continue.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,044 ✭✭✭rogber


    Many people have believed many things about this war and most have proven to be false. Back in summer 2022 I remember hearing one expert say "neither side has the ability to win, neither side can afford to lose" and 3 tragic years later it's still the best summary of the situation. As one NATO general said: it's basically a stalemate with so many still dying for no real gains on either side. What's really needed is for it to stop - but the will of other countries to arrange this still doesn't seem to be there, the US and China least of all



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    For that to happen, in the normal or morally acceptable course, the West would need to absolutely choke the life out of Russia economically. I mean really hammer them with tariffs, seize property, make their foreign elites persona-non-grata. In a REAL, MEANINGFUL way. Which of course would require the US and EU to be in lockstep, and for proper pressure to be brought to bear on the likes of India, Brazil and China.

    This, is the alternative to direct military intervention by the West. And there's a very good argument for direct military intervention to rid Ukraine of hostile foreign armed forces and securing its borders. So the alternative to boots and bullets is the economic thumb-screw.

    Russia can't be allowed come to the table on its own terms, demanding Ukrainian territory without consequences. It should be made to feel the price for those demands. Yes, we'll facilitate peace talks. Yes, you can insist on keeping what you hold - but be aware that if you do, while we might facilitate a ceasefire and end to the killing of tens of thousands of Russians - we will keep your economy crippled.

    I don't see any of the above happening tbh, as long as TACO and his oddly camp henchmen of Vance and Hegseth are on the pitch. So Russia continues to think it can push home an advantage. That's the background against which all these talks of "peace" need to be read against. A completely unbalanced playing field.

    Putin has certainly cemented his reputation as one of the most odious leaders of the last 125 years.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,648 ✭✭✭swampgas


    Russia defeated Napoleon and Hitler by being mostly on the defensive. France and Germany broke themselves trying to invade a country that just kept retreating until the attackers exhausted themselves. In a sense this is Ukraine's strategy on the battlefield - strategic retreat, with occasional breakthroughs where opportunities exist. Wars typically end in one of three ways: military defeat, political collapse, or economic collapse. As far as I can see, Ukraine knows it cannot drive Russia out militarily, so instead is is engineering the economic collapse of Russia by attacking its economic lifeblood: its gas and oil infrastructure. Economic collapse is likely to trigger political collapse, and it is when Putin has left the stage and a new regime is in place, that Ukraine can start negotiating the full return of its territory, and the return of its children, and maybe some reparations, their leverage being their ever improving ability to reach deep into Russia and destroy its refineries, destroy its wealth, and destroy the wealth of its oligarchs. So with that in mind, I don't think it matters too much if Ukraine loses territory or even cities, as long as the loss is slow and controlled, and doesn't lead to a rout. Russia is bleeding out behind the lines, and cannot sustain the current damage that Ukraine is inflicting on it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,061 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    Basically a round of Putin and what he has done to Russia.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    That strategy is a bit of a gamble - a gamble that nobody forces Ukraine to accept a peace deal and instead allows it to continue to wage the war on its terms, as you suggest. What I could see happening, and we've gotten whiffs of it in the last year or so, is Putin putting pressure on Ukraine whenever the war is not going his way. Either by trying to isolate Zelensky politically, weaken other allies (the EU) or withhold key aid and intel. So if Putin is making gains all the talk will be of "we must have a ceasefire now along current lines". But if Ukraine is pressing an advantage it will be the undermining of assistance.

    If Ukraine could count on the backing of its allies I'd suggest the strategy you describe is a sensible one because it would allow Ukraine to control the slow elimination of Putin, and thereby regain all of its lost territory with his demise. But if Ukraine can't count on that then it risks the rug being pulled from under it whenever Putin decides he's happy with his gains and tells TACO to force Zelensky into a ceasefire.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,165 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    Unfortunately I'd take that with a pinch of salt. Would love it to be as dramatic as made out in that clip, and undoubtedly there's a lot of fact in it (19 generals arrested etc) but it smacks of somebody putting 1+1 together and getting 3.

    Time will tell, as our resident apologist for rape and targeting of schools might put it.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,662 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    This could get interesting. If there was one man who could send Putin out a window it's this guy.

    Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit sniffing glue



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,648 ✭✭✭swampgas


    True, but right now probably the most realistic option Ukraine has - push as hard as possible for Russia to collapse, and work hard to manufacture as much of the infrastructure damaging missiles and drones in their own country as possible, to minimise their reliance on anyone else for weaponry. If they drag this out for another year Trump may well be dead or removed and Putin may be deposed. Ukraine have no incentive to cave right now, and if anything seem to have hit on an effective strategy for which Russia, for the time being anyway, doesn't seem to have an effective answer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,709 ✭✭✭fly_agaric


    Bit of "Kremlinology" perhaps, but funny if true.

    Putin, his unrealistic ideas and megalomania, and what happens to people who disagree with him is of course the very reason Lavrov (and other toadies) come out with all the deluded stuff they do!

    Putin is the one who has been mocking the Americans (even Trump must see it at this point, even if he just takes it meekly and won't respond), spurning what has been offered up on a platter to him for months, and choosing to escalate the war instead.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,377 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    Let's say Putin decides he wants a ceasefire at the end of summer 2026 or even 2027. And Trump plays along.

    Ukraine Will need the backing of the EU to last another 1/2 years until the next US election. Trump if he sees his term ending and knows he has no chance of getting Ukraine to agree will just give up and pretend he doesn't care.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,397 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    I don't see any of the independent Ukrainian sources reporting on what's going on around Pokrovsk saying that what's going on is a good idea.

    If you remember what happened at Bakhmut, Ukraine committed forces to try salvage a hopeless situation. It didn't work then and they still lost Bakhmut while wasting resources that were ear-marked for the 2023 Summer counter-offensive. Same thing happened in Avdiivka and now it looks like it's happening in Pokrovsk.

    You don't need any experts to tell you this though. Just take a look at the Deepstate map. Pokrovsk is 3/4's surrounded and the entry points in and out are getting hammered, while logistics for the men fighting inside Pokrovsk are impossible.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,934 ✭✭✭irishgeo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,188 ✭✭✭Polar101


    "Washington took the tone as confrontational and shut the door."

    Well, we've had years of invasions, murdering of civilians and threats of nuclear annihilation - so if they haven't noticed Russia is a bit confrontational, I don't know what to tell Washington.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 5,482 ✭✭✭Rawr


    Remember the chats earlier about Pyrrhic Victories and how the AFU time and again lure the Russians into these at extreme loss to the Russians for what end up being a symbolic win over a ruin? That’s what this is, and of course the Ukrainians are going to feed into that.

    Bakhmut was an increabily blockheaded gambit by the Russians, as was a load of other similar objectives egged on by Putin. They lost a shocking amout of resources for very little real gain beyond getting to put a Russian flag on the gutted remains of a building.

    The Ukrainians know damned well that the game is to outlast the Russians, and which each new «Bakhmut» the Russian military is being bled of that capability. Have said it before, and will say it again, the lines on those maps are just one small element of a larger modern war picture. Don’t base your view on those alone.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,377 ✭✭✭RoyalCelt


    This is so frustrating. A friend of one of the dead soldiers posted a list of battles he'd taken part of. Some famous names on the list.

    All that to die at a **** award's ceremony. Whether it's a funeral or an award's ceremony there shouldn't be large gatherings of military personnel like this.

    Let them attend online and send a family member to receive.



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