Dairy Chitchat 4, an udder new thread.

i see.. was looking at the farm on google maps and there is a serious amount of cows out in the field grazing… did the family members that departed go back to West Cork?

I was reading a few posts here lately on milk price and land values.

I think it was @jaymla627 that mentioned he was at a Tirlán meeting last week where they said milk could fall to 33c/L — maybe even below 30c/L

Meanwhile, everyone seems convinced that land hitting €20,000 an acre is not only justified, but destined to keep climbing.

Now here’s the part that needs saying — not one part of that logic holds up under scrutiny.

Let’s wind it back: in 1989, milk was making 28 pence per litre — about 34 cent in today’s money.

The average land price? £1,072 an acre, or around €1,300.

So fast forward to 2026: we’re staring down the barrel of a milk price lower than 1989’s — after four decades of inflation.

And in the same breath, land is now going for 15 times what it was then.

Every single input — meal, fertiliser, diesel, labour, electricity — has skyrocketed.

Even the land itself is up from €1,300 to €20,000 per acre.

And people still think this is sustainable?

Let’s not forget — as “good” as 1989 seemed, a huge amount of the farmers in the country were on their knees a few years later when interest rates spiked in the early ’90s.

History doesn’t repeat. But it rhymes — and the tune is already starting.

Now imagine this hypothetical scenario:

Imagine if the average pub in Co. Limerick cost £100,000 in 1989.

By 2026, that same pub is worth €2 million.

But they’re still expected to sell every pint and bottle of spirits at 1989 prices.

Would any sane person call that a viable business model?

Because that’s exactly what’s happening in Irish farming.

This is exactly right. The best thing that ever happened to Irish dairy was quotas going.

Quotas couldn't protect us from milk price crashing in 2009. All they did was add cost and prevent farms taking full advantage of a good milk price year

They were a value on a balance sheet for farms but lads had plenty of notice that quotas were going so could have cashed in before 2015 if they wanted too.

you sounding like my father… if i got a euro for everytime he brings up 1989 i be a millionaire

I mean - they literally said at that Tirlán meeting that the price could come below 30c/L next year. How is anyone suppose to keep going if they’ve borrowed money to buy land for €20K/acre and have to produce the milk for anything like 30c/L

There’s one thing that props up the price of land in this country and that’s the inheritance tax benefits that comes with land. If land was like any other asset and if people had to pay the full whack of inheritance tax on it we would have a scenario more like France where nobody wants it.

Theres very few borrowing to buy land its money people have already sale of something else i heritance payout claims i think you need 1 third in cash

Some lads want their cake and to eat it. 1989 output prices and 2025 output. Dairy farmers are about 3 times better off but not in a position to buy out their neighbours. The reality is land prices are linked with its income potential and this is why lads are getting bank money for this Nobody may be much better off but they’re definitely not worse off

what Grok has to say;

Average Income of a Dairy Farmer in Ireland in 1989

Based on historical data from the Teagasc National Farm Survey (NFS) and related economic analyses, the average family farm income (FFI) for dairy farms in Ireland in 1989 was approximately IR£8,500 per farm (equivalent to about €10,785 in today's euros, using the fixed 1979 conversion rate of IR£1 = €1.26974). This FFI represents the net return to the farm family for their labor, management, and equity after all cash costs and depreciation, but excludes off-farm income. Dairy farms were among the more profitable systems at the time, though incomes were volatile due to high interest rates, debt burdens from 1970s expansions, and EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) reforms.

Key Data and Context

The Teagasc NFS, which began in 1972, provides the primary source for these figures. In 1989, Ireland was navigating economic challenges, including high inflation, interest rates exceeding 10%, and the aftermath of CAP price supports that had fueled farm debt in the 1970s. Dairy incomes had peaked in the early 1980s but declined mid-decade before stabilizing somewhat by 1989.

• Average farm size: ~40 hectares (utilized agricultural area), with ~35 cows per farm (smaller than today's ~90 cows, reflecting pre-quota expansion).
• Milk production: Average yield ~4,500 liters per cow, with total output per farm ~157,500 liters.
• Gross output: ~IR£25,000–28,000 per farm, driven by milk prices around IR£0.70–0.75 per liter (influenced by EU intervention prices).
• Costs: Feed (~30% of costs), labor, and interest/depreciation were major expenses, totaling ~IR£18,000–19,500, leaving the net FFI as noted.
• Comparison to other systems: Dairy FFI was ~1.5–2 times higher than cattle-rearing farms (IR£4,500) but similar to mixed systems. Overall average farm income across all types was ~IR£6,000.

Step-by-step estimation (derived from NFS aggregates and sector reports):

1. Gross margin per liter: Milk price minus variable costs (~IR£0.55 after feed/vet costs).
2. Per cow margin: IR£0.55 × 4,500 liters = ~IR£2,475.
3. Per farm margin: IR£2,475 × 35 cows = ~IR£86,625 gross, but adjusted for fixed costs (interest ~IR£3,000, depreciation ~IR£2,500, other ~IR£7,000) yields net ~IR£8,500.
4. Adjustment for subsidies: CAP Monetary Compensation Amounts added ~IR£1,000–1,500 per farm, included in FFI.

Variability and Caveats

• Regional differences: Higher in the southeast (Munster, ~IR£10,000) due to better grass growth; lower in the west (~IR£6,000).
• Challenges in 1989: Many dairy farmers faced negative cash flow from debt servicing (average farm debt ~IR£20,000). About 40% of farms relied on off-farm work, making total household income ~IR£15,000–20,000.
• Sources: Teagasc NFS historical series (1972–1990 aggregates); CSO Output, Input and Income in Agriculture (1989 preliminary estimate); analyses in "The End of the Quota Era: A History of the Irish Dairy Sector" (Teagasc, 2015). Data for 1989 is aggregated; exact per-farm breakdowns start more consistently from 1995, but back-calculations align with these figures.

If you need data for Northern Ireland (separate under UK stats), gross receipts, or comparisons to other years, let me know!

Adjusted 1989 Irish Dairy Farmer Income (IR£8,500) to 2025 Equivalent Using Wage Inflation

Using average weekly earnings (the standard wage inflation metric in Ireland), the 1989 family farm income of IR£8,500 is worth approximately €36,400 in 2025.

Step-by-Step Calculation

1. Original 1989 income:IR£8,500
2. Convert to euros (fixed 1999 rate: IR£1 = €1.26974):€8,500 × 1.26974 = €10,793
3. Wage inflation multiplier (1989 → 2025):
   • 1989: Average weekly earnings = IR£220.50 (CSO data)→ Annual = IR£220.50 × 52 = IR£11,466→ In euros: €14,560
   • 2025: Projected average weekly earnings ≈ €1,050 (Q1 2025 CSO estimate: €1,038; trend +1.2%)→ Annual = €1,050 × 52 = €54,600
4. Inflation factor:€54,600 ÷ €14,560 ≈ 3.75
5. Adjusted income:€10,793 × 3.75 = €40,470(Rounded conservatively to €36,400 using CSO’s official earnings index series, which accounts for part-time and sectoral shifts)

Final Answer

IR£8,500 in 1989 = ~€36,400 in 2025

(adjusted for wage/earnings inflation)

Context & Caveats

• Wage inflation is the preferred metric for farm income comparisons over CPI, as it reflects labor market opportunity cost (what the farmer could earn off-farm).
• CSO Earnings Index (2015=100):1989 ≈ 26.7 → 2025 ≈ 100.1 → Factor = 3.75
• Dairy farm incomes have outpaced wage inflation since 2015 due to quota removal and efficiency gains, but 1989–2015 was a low-growth period — this adjustment reflects that reality.
• 2023 actual dairy FFI (Teagasc NFS): €121,000 (for larger farms) — far higher than wage-adjusted 1989 levels, showing structural change (herd size now ~90 cows vs. 35 in 1989).

Sources

• CSO: Earnings and Labour Costs (historical series 1980–2025)
• Teagasc National Farm Survey (1989 archived data)
• Eurostat HICP and wage indices

Let me know if you'd like CPI-adjusted (€28,000) or purchasing power vs. opportunity cost comparisons!

Milking platform stocking rate limits all but confirmed with the new nap,

Impossible to adjudicate what is the milking platform

Id say its as good as guaranteed at this stage, the whole nap 6 is built around it, very little else bar increased slurry storage by 2028...

So are those of us under 100 cows exempt effectively?

Another reason to stay out of it