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Presidential Election 2025

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,863 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    It was very good!

    I am loving the fallout of this election for FFG.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    Kelly says he was 'shafted' by Fine Gael's Áras selection process

    Untitled Image

    Both FG and FF made a Horlicks of their selection process. The fall out from it is good enough for them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Not much enthusiasm in FF for the Presidential election? What utter nonsense!

    You clearly weren't paying attention while Bertie and Mary Hanafin and Eamon O Cuiv were on manoeuvres. You think Billy Kelleher wasn't really interested? Nothing he said or did gives any reason to think he wasn't fully committed to running or that he isn't pissed off with MM now.

    Your opinion of MM's future is just as nonsensical. You think that, before the Gavin implosion, there was a gang of FF TDs ready to push MM out on any given day?😫 The pressure on MM now is entirely due to the Presidential election fiasco. MM may survive to finish his term as Taoiseach but that depends on him avoiding any further calamities and (unlike two months ago) no one, not even MM, thinks he will lead FF into the next election.

    Were you simply trying to create a smokescreen?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    It is FG's stupid people problem. Stupid people make stupid mistakes. FG should have done much better in this election and perhaps even won it. Kelly would have been a much better candidate and has a proven track record of getting votes. It was an absolutely stupid campaign.

    A presidential election is like electing a conscience. FG's decision to go negative ignored that. As for Harris, interviewers will not tell him to stop yapping away like some numpty on speed and simply answer questions.

    Until FG fixes this fundamental problem of stupid people making stupid decisions and stupid mistakes, FF is going to continue taking seats from it. Of course, FF will talk about all those wonderful transfers between FF and FG but the reality is that FG transfers are getting FF TDs elected. The stupid people problem in FG has seen FG drop from 78 seats to just 38 seats. It has also cost it the presidential election.

    Going negative might have been fine for a GE. It is completely out of place for a presidential election. A strong FG candidate may well have given SF a moment of pause about backing Connolly. A weak candidate, as Humphreys was, created a combined Left alliance. Humprheys simply was the FG candidate for FGers. The stupid mistake was FG thinking that every voter is an FGer.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,765 ✭✭✭✭sligeach


    It's not the first time that FG have picked a garbage candidate for an election. They picked Nina Carberry for the European elections last year, and guess what? She got elected. SMH. Even though she was brutal in the few TV appearances she made, and has no political experience whatsoever. She was like when Father Jack was coached to say "That would be an ecumenical matter." You see various MEP's on TV and radio being interviewed on various matters. I've never heard her on any show, and I can guess why.

    Seán Kelly would have been a far better candidate than Heather Humphreys.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,458 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    I`m neither a member of FF or a fan of Martin`s so why would I be trying to create a smoke screen, and whatever these maneuvers Bertie, Hanifin and O Cuiv were on - none of them even having a vote to select a candidate - Kelleher was the only member that sought a nomination where he lost by 41 votes to 29. Prior to that vote he had just the declared support of one MEP, one T.D. and one Senator. Gavin had declared support from 24 which included all senior cabinet ministers.

    There has been a rump within the FF parliamentary party for years that do not like Martin as party leader, and if they can now only muster 10 it looks as if it has become unfortunately weaker. Either that or there is no senior member of the party willing to challenge Martin for the leadership on the basis of the Gavin selection. Nor do I see how they even could as all the present senior cabinet ministers declared for Gavin. O`Callaghan, - even though I think he has shot his bolt due to his past didderings - would have been the only one possibly to do so, but even he after holding out as long as he did, saw how the wind was blowing and declared for Gavin.

    Something in the future may result in Martin being challenger in a leadership contest, but it`s not going to be on Gavin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,785 ✭✭✭pureza


    To be fair,at least Fine Gael had the guts to put up a candidate albeit not it’s members preferred one or one that could string two unscripted sentences together

    They also had half their T.D’s retire at the last election,yet came back with a bigger vote than the previous election,all that in the last 12 months

    SF did not have this courage to run someone for president,instead supporting an independent,who if she lost was going to be someone else’s fault and if she won,it was of course thanks to SF…

    SF were the only party to drop votes vs the last general election by a whopping 100,000+

    So a lot of pot calling the kettle black árse in your analysis without checking shades of black



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,990 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    As someone who worked all my life in the building industry, no one is going to fix the housing crisis. So if that's a measure of govt success, then we won't have a successful govt for a long time to come.

    Housing costs have risen to unprecedented levels, those costs aren't going to come down bar a recession and in that case then housing as usual will be the first thing to stop. We are in this never ending cycle now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,879 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    In FF I think Jack Chambers will be more damaged than MM. MM might have just saved himself by changing his mind and travelling to Dublin for the election declaration.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,089 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    It's a little concerning that FF TDs are out referencing the 'damage' from the budget on the presidential election saying the government should have spent loads more money. Short, short memories. The opposition even worse in that regard.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    According to some reports. FF lost 500K Euro on the presidential election and it only has 372K in the bank. FF may need a bailout after this disaster of a presidential election.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,906 ✭✭✭rock22


    Just saw this now , posted under clarity on RTE website

    I wonder could this not have been posted before the election ballot. At least then we might have had an idea of the calibre of people behind the spoil vote campaign.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 9,412 ✭✭✭corkie


    Under f**kin 'Clarity' banner and they could even get all the facts right on it.

    They where the group that created that particular website. They themselves have said it was a grassroots campaign which was bigger than just them. I was campaigning since 24 Sept well before this group came to my attention.

    I knew about that website and group on the 13th Oct or before. I shared their website on socials with a disclaimer that i didn't endorse any of the leaders of the group.

    Campaign Leaders: -
    Elaine Mullally, Eddie Hobbs, Paul Treyvaud, Aidan Joyce (website creator), Declan Ganley, Nick Delahanty, Ivor Cummins, Michael McCarthy.

    Some of these may have a big social media following, but are not widely liked.

    Also Cllr. Malachy Steenson and a group, was suppose to have been running another campaign since April, but I heard or saw nothing of that. Wasn't active on 'Xitter' around then so may have missed it.

    EP 06: Post-Election Autopsy — Cllr. Malachy Steenson & Declan Ganley Discuss Spoil The Vote ~ Ireland Reports

    And Declan Ganley has a great way of spinning mistruths himself: -

    Irish invalid votes > France 2017 ~~ False

    RTE stating the invalid ballots won't be counted, again false they said it wouldn't effect the results. Twisted spin on it.

    "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it." ~ George Santayana
    "But that's balanced out by the fact that it's a mandate not to do very much." ~ Prof. Eoin O'Malley



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,376 ✭✭✭golfball37


    If FF were serious partners in government they would have thrown full weight behind HH after Jim pulled out. I’d be well peed off if I was FG leadership with their efforts



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,561 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    LOL

    Where was that in the program for government?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    FG partners in government? You're joking!

    MM was trying for over a year to get FG to back an agreed independent candidate but Simon shunned him because he thought he had winner in Mairéad who could cement his place as FG leader. But you still expected FF to back HH having watched her underperform for 10 years at Cabinet and retire "exhausted" when the election was announced?😩

    And remember, if FG and FF had united in a search for an independent candidate, they would never have picked Jim Gavin because any of "the great and the good" would be willing to run as the Establishment candidate.

    Post edited by Caquas on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    It wasn't up to FF. Harris tried to pull a fast one with making McGuinness the FG candidate and hoping that FF would supporter rather than negotiating with FF. Martin, as usual, dithered. He is a weak, pathetic "leader" as is Harris. A single FFG candidate would have change the dynamics of the election.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 3,561 ✭✭✭Cyclingtourist


    Who's this mythical 'single FF/FG candidate' who would change the 'dynamics'?

    Name please?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Wrong - FG did not "come back with s bigger vote" in GE2024. They had a boost when Leo jumped ship but that evaporated when Simon hit the campaign trail. FG got 21.8% of FP votes, down from 21.9% in 2020v which was deemed a catastrophe. They won 3 more seats but only because the Dáil added 14 and the Greens lost 11.

    FG had the guts to put up a candidate? Don't you mean Simon foisted HH on the party when Mairéad vanished and FG spent the next 10 weeks watching that her slow train wreck.

    SF looked like a spent docket after the last election but they are over the moon right now because they think they can lead a united Left. A fantasy that won't last til Xmas but FF and FG will be sick next week as the MLMD lays into them with all the confidence of a winner.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    No, Simon never thought FF would support Mairéad. On the contrary, he wanted FF to have its own candidate that Mairéad would beat and FG would finally best FF in a race to the Áras.

    MM didn't dither - he held Jim Gavin back until the end of August (the timing he had indicated months earlier) because every media "expert" said a candidate who became the frontrunner too early was doomed. Wrong as always - CC showed that, like Mary Robinson, a strong candidate wins by putting in the groundwork.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    The party winners in this election are SF and the SocDems. What happened with the SocDems is probably more important because it is perceived to be a major party having nominated Connolly. Labour is still in decline but Connolly's win should help Bacik against the Alan Kelly faction. PBP might get a boost. It is a geographically concentrated party whereas the others are not.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    Obviously, no one will be named but do you think that the FF/FG combined could not find a better candidate than Jim Gavin or HH😫.

    Not guaranteed to win but definitely would have created a completely different dynamic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,376 ✭✭✭golfball37


    They had a FFG candidate from 3 weeks out. Whatever preceded should have been put to bed and the full resources thrown behind HH imo.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2, Paid Member Posts: 13,863 ✭✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Yeah I would agree with that. Good to have Cairns back in the Dail too. She had M Martin floundering on leaders questions over the past few weeks. As usual he didn't answer any of her clear questions.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth house?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    You have too high an opinion of Harris and Martin. Harris wanted to impose McGuinness as the FFG candidate. Martin, being a weak leader, just dithered as usual. It might as well have been one of those reports that he never read. As the the media "experts", most are experts in their own minds. One of the reasons for early frontrunners being at risk is because it gives their opponents more time to do opposition research (dig up some dirt on the opposition). McGuinness was the early frontrunner and she dropped out on health grounds. Connolly was expected to plateau around the combined party support of SocDems/PBP/Lab (approximatley 17%). The gamechanger that all the media "experts" missed was SF backing Connolly. That changed the election because it presented a combined Left. Then the FF candidate dropped out. Without the FF transfers, Humphreys hadn't a chance. Robinso won because FF screwed up. It was the transfers from the FG candidate and the female vote that won the election for her. Lenihan still had more FPVs. Both FF, FG and Labour had much greater support in 1990. FF and FG had enough votes to win a presidency. In 2025, they did not.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    The winner in this election is Catherine Martina Ann Connolly, a woman would couldn't stick with any party.

    PBP/Solidarity are bigger winners than SDs because she is much closer to them and she gave them a new credibility as a national force. Her win will help Bacik v. Alan Kelly and Labour's old guard but the last thing Labour needs is someone to outshine Michael D. and CC is the last person on earth Michael D. would want to take his mantle.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,990 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    You'd have to weigh that up a bit. I know it's only one constituency, but it's the home of a potential SF leader in Matt Carthy, covering 2 border counties, with lads on here pointing out Heather Humphreys religion, her OO connection, the status of the community she lived in with a name sign only in English, Cavan/Monaghan would be a surprise win for Heather and FG would it not?

    I know it's her home constituency, but I was shocked she won it given the campaign that was launched against her there. SF would have to be wondering where their campaign went wrong there?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,617 ✭✭✭jmcc


    Perhaps FG turnout was higher there and was lower in other constituencies.

    Regards…jmcc



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,027 ✭✭✭Caquas


    I never suggested you were FF still less an MM fanboy. No one in FF would agree with your suggestion that the party weren’t interested in the Áras.

    If you think opposition to MM within the party is now weaker, you need to quit whatever you’re smoking.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,990 ✭✭✭Bishop of hope


    Perhaps, but if that's so it would mean it was low everywhere else. In a general election then the presidential election pattern wouldn't necessarily follow through. As I said, you'd have to weigh up the pros and cons of the result before you could claim it as a change in voter attitudes.

    Sure it's something to build on, but how many left candidates are as adept as Connolly at projecting themselves nationally?

    She was super BTW, no argument from me on that.



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