Presidential Election 2025

Exit polls in an election like this one are pointless or costly when the result will be known within 48 hours anyway.

Sad to see turnout is low. Our democracy was hard won. That being said people have the right not to vote. I voted Connolly as she was comfortably the most impressive of the candidates whether it was three or two options. Felt strange seeing Jim Gavin's name on the ballot. He possibly should have seen the campaign out seeing as his name was on the ballot. It was an easy problem to fix even if the optics were awful.

Huge mistake by FFG to keep Steen, Sheridan and others off the ballot. And before we hear any more guff that this was all Steen and Sheridan's fault, Senan Molony reported in the Indo yesterday that many FG people have told him in private that the party messed up by trying to manipulate the nominations.

It's a low turnout because of both the calibre of candidates and lack of choice. You'd have to try to care enough to vote in this.

Turnout in middle-class areas across the country are matching the 2018 presidential.

Thats not good for Connolly.

And to reply to an earlier post, there are middle class socialists too. But not many. And they vote Soc Dem, not bonkers marxist Euro hater.

It's a tactical error in terms of countering SF and the Left to shut the door completely on case by case cooperation with social conservatives.

I'm liberal on issues of bodily autonomy. But I also observe that Steen made correct points in the referendums last year. And also, social conservatives have opposed things like the Hate Speech law, which could have been abused by a future authoritarian government.

The way the French revolutionaries turned on each other in 1793-4 is an example of how powers conferred for one purpose can boomerang back and be used against those who created them. Censorship laws especially.

You have the turn out figures for the middle class areas of Clare, Longford, Sligo, Galway East?

What are they?

Those stats come out anyways, as and after the votes have been counted……there's not any real value in trying to do this before the votes are counted. A complete waste of time and money in a situation like this one.

You can't be serious?

You do know how this works right?

The full result (once all has been counted) is the largest "sample" available. The results are broken down by box is you drill down into it and thats what you are after.

I can foresee much mileage being made out of the 'martyrdom' of Steen, Sheridan etc. We've seen this nonsense for years about Gallagher, Casey etc. I certainly disapprove of FFGs treatment of it's councillors etc but it's up to them to rebel against their leaders and demand their rights - FFG have been whipping their party members into taking uncomfortable stances for years - and other parties do exactly the same. I'm not sure how 'undemocratic' telling your members not to assist in the nomination of candidates for political office who are not in your party is.

The nomination process seems to me to be flawed but put a better process up there in a referendum I'll be happy to vote for it if I think it really is better.

Just looking at the parties that have nominated presidential candidates other than FF and FG and self nomination I can see -

Clann na Talmhan (1)
Independent TDs (3)
Labour Party (5 - 3 successful)
Workers party (1 - 1 successful)
Democratic Left (1)
Progressive Democrats (1 - 1 successful)
County and City Councils (10)
Green Party (2)
Sinn Fein (3)
Social Democrats(1)
People Before Profit (1)
Solidarity (1)
100% Redress (1)

It does not appear to me that there is a significant barrier there. All of Sinn Féin, Labour Party, Social Democrats,People Before Profit, Solidarity, Green Party, 100% Redress and Independent TDs will all be able to be able to add another "1 successful" to their tallies if Connolly wins.

The strategic error of the right was to rely on support from FF and FG to get their nomination - they needed to build their own support mechanism in from the start and they needed to start that process earlier than they did.

Very like the voting system it's not just about getting your biggest fans out, it's also about being acceptable to second level support from others.

Why would you presume to know what I know? I genuinely, hand on heart didn't know it was illegal. That's why I asked here.

I seen numerous photos of people's ballot papers on social media, all spoilt votes. You know, I don't know why I took the photo, as I already said, I've never spoilt my vote before, I didn't and never would. I just wanted to have a photo of the ballot paper, I might have taken another one of my completed vote, but never got the chance. I didn't try to conceal in any way that I was taking the photo, because I thought it alright, after seeing so many photos online.

And seeing as it's an offence, are the Gardaí going to go after the people who posted their ballot papers online? I sincerely doubt it.

Will the rumoured "Ireland Thinks" exit poll include spoiled votes.

Someone online has posted what he claims is an exit poll in Sunday Independent, with 67% Connolly, 25% HH, 8% Gavin and 2% spoiled.

However I'm sceptical because he posted incorrect exit poll in the referendums last year saying 51-3% in favour, when they were rejected 70-30.

Meanwhile this other person has said its 43 CC, 33 HH and 22 JG, 3% spoiled.

Looked at both accounts...yeah they are just posting nonsense for engagement.

Now voting is over and Catherine Connolly’s expected victory looks set to be confirmed later today (I know I’ll have egg on my face if it doesn’t happen, so be it! 😊). It will be interesting to observe the narratives that emerge in the coming days from political correspondents and editorials.

Notwithstanding their supposed objectivity, it’s clear many in the media would have preferred a HH victory — thou shalt not stray from the path of righteous political centrism, and all that.

I suspect several lines of discussion will develop, among them:

Turnout and Legitimacy - Turnout will be a key talking point. It’s looking 35% to 40% — it will inevitably be used to delegitimise Connolly’s win. The “uninspiring,” “dead election” narrative of the media took root and has and will continue to shape perception. The limited choice — only two candidates — clearly affected engagement. Fianna Fáil’s absence from the campaign was bound to depress participation. Some FF voters will have gone for HH, others for Gavin, but many likely stayed home. Still, I’d expect a section of the FF vote, especially in working-class urban areas, to have swung to Connolly. The whimpering from the religious right about Steen will be loud too, they’ve had far too much oxygen to date, it’s a pity they didn’t put as much energy into a real plan to get her on the ballot paper than they have into whining about her non-inclusion.

A Connolly Presidency - Expect plenty of overwrought commentary and hyperbole akin to what we’ve seen posted here yesterday by the usual suspects — “Connolly out of control,” “undermining the government,” and so on. She’ll probably resemble Michael D. Higgins in style: respecting constitutional limits while not being afraid to test them. For example, like Higgins, she’ll challenge the hypocrisy of EU’s selective policy on war/genocide etc. My sense is that Connolly will be a one-term president — which gives her the freedom to be bold, time will tell though.

Fianna Fáil and the Future of Micheál Martin - Much attention will turn to Fianna Fáil’s direction and Martin’s future. His time as leader is clearly nearing its end. If polls continue to decline, there may be further murmurs of discontent, but he’ll likely be allowed to see out his term as Taoiseach with the EU presidency next year and then an agreed timetable for his departure before the next election.

Fine Gael and Simon Harris - Harris hasn’t been a significant presence in this campaign until the final week — by which point the ship had already sunk. His attempts to “refloat” it with vague talk of “far-left threats” and “middle Ireland” didn’t inspire anyone. He’s not under immediate pressure – HH wasn’t his candidate in the way Gavin was for Martin and talk of a leadership contenders like Thatcher’s ghost AKA Jennifer Carroll MacNeill feels fanciful.

What’s harder to gauge, though, is the attitude of Harris and Martin themselves.

The Left and Sinn Féin - The “left alliance” will be bullish in the aftermath — understandably so. But while it’s one thing to unite around a single presidential candidate, sustaining that cooperation over four years to a general election is another matter entirely, especially when they’ll be competing for many of the same votes.

The Labour–Social Democrats dynamic could work, though not without friction. Alan Kelly’s position is interesting — he’s ideologically closer to FG but unlikely to jump ship. He’d arguably have been better placed if Connolly loses but that seems unlikey - he just looks bitter and foolish and as it stands, he’s on the back foot.

PBP remains marginal, with three TDs (RBB ill),Murphy was very prominent and he's very strong on left/SF cooperation but Ruth Coppinger’s Socialist Party and her Dail banner Solidarity far less inclined toward broader cooperation.

Sinn Féin, however, can rightly bask in this victory. Mary Lou McDonald’s “gamechanger” remark, ridiculed by many journalists and government figures, suddenly looks prophetic.

That said, for this “left alliance” to carry momentum into the next general election and plausibly form a left-led government, many things will have to go their way. I’m not convinced they will — but time will tell. Expect plenty of pushback from the usual suspects — Coleman, Leahy, Collins, and others — eager to pour cold water on the notion that something genuinely new might be taking shape.

Anyway, just some initial, admittedly not very developed thoughts and observations, all predicated on a CC victory of course, so if CC doesn’t win, I’ll have to take my medicine 😊.